An ‘American Carnage’ sequel? Another big year for US stocks, Keir Starmer's AI dreams and more

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what’s known and unknown about Donald Trump’s policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.

Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdown
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdown

US continues to lead the way on our AI index
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-index

US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-term

Why we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025