In the fog of policy uncertainty, China’s National People's Congress, India in Trumpland and more

In the latest Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing breaks down just how the policy uncertainty emanating from the Trump administration is – and isn’t affecting – the global economy. He also previews the February US employment report and whether Musk’s layoffs will impact the national labour market and the opening of this year’s National People’s Congress in Beijing.

Also on the show, what’s the view of Trump’s tariff threats from India? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah calls from Mumbai after a week of meetings with business, government and media to talk about why Narendra Modi’s administration thinks it can dodge this bullet, as well as the macro environment and RBI response.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/could-uncertainty-weigh-global-economy

China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment

CAP: Official data underplays China’s 2024 weakness
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-official-data-underplays-chinas-2024-weakness

India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-weekly/india-weekly-tariff-manoeuvres-rbi-shifts-priorities-long-run