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Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

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Dec 21, 2022 • 54min

How can we un-break politics? (with Magnus Vinding)

Read the full transcript here. How can we as individuals and as societies un-break politics? What is the two-step ideal of reasoned politics? How might this ideal apply to specific political issues, like free speech? Is it possible to reach agreement or even compromise on political issues that are rooted in intrinsic values? How can we reduce our own political biases? Are there some political issues which must always or by definition be zero-sum, or can all issues conceivably become positive-sum?Magnus Vinding is the author of Speciesism: Why It Is Wrong and the Implications of Rejecting It, Reflections on Intelligence, You Are Them, Suffering-Focused Ethics: Defense and Implications, and Reasoned Politics. He has a degree in mathematics from the University of Copenhagen, and in 2020, he co-founded the Center for Reducing Suffering, whose mission is to reduce severe suffering in a way that takes all sentient beings into account.Further reading:"Compassionate Free Speech" (2020), an essay by Magnus Vinding on free speech, compassion, and social mediaReasoned Politics (2022), a book by Magnus Vinding available for free downloadHate: Why We Should Resist It with Free Speech, Not Censorship, by Nadine Strossen"How a cultural revolt against "political correctness" helped launch Trump into the presidency", by Lucien Gideon Conway III"Understanding Libertarian Morality: The Psychological Dispositions of Self-Identified Libertarians", by Ravi Iyer, Spassena Koleva, Jesse Graham, Peter Ditto, and Jonathan HaidtReporters Without Borders indexA Twitter thread by Michael Petersen that presents some evidence suggesting that bans are counterproductive to fighting disinformation"The Automaticity of Affect for Political Leaders, Groups, and Issues: An Experimental Test of the Hot Cognition Hypothesis", by Milton Lodge and Charles S. Taber"Beyond Western, Educated, Industrial, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) Psychology: Measuring and Mapping Scales of Cultural and Psychological Distance", by Michael Muthukrishna, Adrian V. Bell, Joseph Henrich, Camerom M. Curtin, Alexander Gedranovich, Jason McInerney, and Brandon Thue"Disagreement or Badmouthing? The Role of Expressive Discourse in Politics", by Michael Hannon StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Dec 14, 2022 • 1h 17min

Why capitalism doesn't live up to its promises (with Martin Schmalz)

Read the full transcript here. Why doesn't capitalism seem to be living up to its promises of free and fair competition, low prices, and high quality goods and services (at least in Western nations)? What did Adam Smith fail to foresee about the ways economic systems would change on the way to 2022? What is "common ownership", and what effects does it have on economies? What interventions should be implemented to keep an economy healthy? Is it easier to put pressure on business leaders or politicians? In terms of shifting incentives for the sake of mitigating climate change, how effective is it to divest from "brown" businesses and invest instead in "green" ones? What is the AI revolution really about? Is it conceivable, even in theory, that AIs could make predictions in "uncharted territory" where the present is completely unlike the past? (But for that matter, how well can humans make predictions in such cases?) Is the hubbub around AI just a distraction from other more important issues? How can we keep AIs from reinforcing existing biases?Martin Schmalz is Professor of Finance and Economics at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. He holds a graduate degree (Dipl.-Ing.) in mechanical engineering from the Universität Stuttgart (Germany) and a M.A. and PhD in Economics from Princeton University (USA). Prof. Schmalz is the Academic Director of Oxford's Blockchain Strategy Programme, and co-director of the Open Banking & AI in Finance Programme. He co-authored The Business of Big Data: How to Create Lasting Value in the Age of AI, and was featured as one of the "40 under 40" best business school professors worldwide at the age of 33. Read his writings on his blog, learn more about him on his website, and follow him on Twitter at @martincschmalz (governance & antitrust) and @oxfordfrom (everything else). StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Dec 7, 2022 • 54min

Anti-interoperability, vendor lock-in, and high switching costs (with Cory Doctorow)

Read the full transcript here. What is interoperability? What counts as "unauthorized" access to computers or parts of computers? If the rendered design of a web page is copyrighted, then does blocking ads on that page count as copyright infringement by creating a derivative product? Does Facebook really want what's best for its users? Is Google evil? Could blockchain-based solutions provide much-needed privacy or interoperability? Why doesn't the U.S. government (for example) fight harder to prevent vendor lock-in when buying goods and services? Which tech companies, if any, should be broken up?Cory Doctorow (craphound.com) is a science fiction author, activist, and journalist. He is the author of many books, most recently Radicalized and Walkaway, science fiction for adults; Chokepoint Capitalism, nonfiction about monopoly and creative labor markets; In Real Life, a graphic novel; and the picture book Poesy the Monster Slayer. His latest novel is Attack Surface, a standalone adult sequel to Little Brother. In 2020, he was inducted into the Canadian Science Fiction and Fantasy Hall of Fame. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Nov 30, 2022 • 1h 12min

Separating the sinner from the sin (with Khomotso Moshikaro)

Read the full transcript here. What is a criminal label? What implications should criminal labels have (or not) for a person's future? To what extent are the long-term social effects considered as part of the sentence for a crime (e.g., not only considering sending a person to prison for 5 years but also considering how likely they are to be shunned socially or to be prevented from working certain kinds of jobs after their release)? How does the concept of dignity differ from the concept of rights? Are human rights infinitely valuable? Can a society that takes dignity seriously also allow for contempt? Under what conditions are rights forfeited by a person who commits a crime? And which rights are forfeited, and why? (For example, should the punishments for theft include a loss of the right to vote? Does the amount or kind of theft matter? Does it matter who the victims are, or how many victims there are?) For what kinds of crimes can we draw conclusions about a person's character? How much should we focus on punishment versus rehabilitation? How do honor, mercy, redemption, dignity, and contempt all relate to one another? How do we know when someone is truly reformed?Khomotso is a South African and British trained lawyer who completed graduate work at Oxford and is now pursuing his PhD at Cambridge. His research focuses on the morality of criminal punishment, specifically the nature, ontology, and limits of criminal labelling. He currently teaches at the University of Cape Town and reads too much Roman politics and history in the late Republic and Early Imperial period in his spare time. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Nov 28, 2022 • 3h 25min

The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen)

What the heck happened with FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried? Were there early warning signs that most people failed to notice? What could've been done differently, and by whom? What effects will this have on the EA movement going forward?Timestamps:00:01:37 — Intro & timeline00:51:48 — Byrne Hobart01:39:52 — Vipul Naik02:18:35 — Maomao Hu02:41:19 — Marcus Abramovitch02:49:38 — Ozzie Gooen03:21:40 — Wrap-up & outroByrne Hobart writes The Diff, a newsletter covering inflections in finance and tech, which has 47,000+ readers. Previously he worked at a hedge fund covering Internet and media companies. Follow Byrne on Twitter at @ByrneHobart or subscribe to The Diff at thediff.co.Vipul Naik holds a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago and is currently the head of data science at Equator Therapeutics, a drug discovery startup. He previously worked at a tech startup called LiftIgniter and then at The Arena Group, a media / tech company that acquired LiftIgniter. Learn more about him at his website, vipulnaik.com.Maomao Hu is a blockchain, fintech, and AI entrepreneur and thought leader. He has been involved in organizations ranging from leading investment banks to new startups, to solve both microstructure problems like market surveillance and macrostructure problems like capital allocation. Currently, he leads development and quantitative research at asset manager Zerocap. Learn more about him at his website, thefirenexttime.com.Marcus Abramovich is a managing partner at Enlightenment Ventures, an EA-aligned cryptocurrency hedge fund. Marcus also leads a Facebook group and Discord community of effective altruists focused on accumulating capital to donate to EA causes, and advises several cryptocurrency projects. Marcus discovered effective altruism as a PhD candidate at the University of Waterloo and professional poker player. Email him at marcus.s.abramovitch@gmail.com.Ozzie Gooen is the president of The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. He has a background in programming and research. He previously founded Guesstimate and worked at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Follow him on Twitter at @ozziegooen or learn more about his current work at quantifieduncertainty.org.Further Reading:"Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving" by Rob Wiblin @ the EA forum on why he disagrees with the SBF's risk-taking approach [link]References: 0xhonky. (November 13, 2022, 03:12 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/0xhonky/status/1591630071915483136. Twitter. [link] alamedatrabucco. (April 22, 2021, 10:37 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/alamedatrabucco/status/1385180941186789384. Twitter. [link] Allison, I.. (November 2, 2022). Divisions in Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire Blur on His Trading Titan Alameda's Balance Sheet. Coindesk. [link] Austin. (November 14, 2022). In Defense of SBF. Effective Altruism Forum. [link] autismcapital. (November 12, 2022, 07:33 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/autismcapital/status/1591333446995283969. Twitter. [link] Berwick, A.. (November 13, 2022). Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at failed crypto firm FTX. Reuters. [link] carolinecapital. (April 5, 2021, 11:41 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/carolinecapital/status/1379036346300305408. Twitter. [link] corybates1895. (November 10, 2022, 10:37 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/corybates1895/status/1590836167867760641. Twitter. [link] cz_binance. (November 6, 2022, 03:47 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1589283421704290306. Twitter. [link] cz_binance. (November 8, 2022). https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1590013613586411520. Twitter. [link] Faux, Z.. (April 3, 2022). A 30-Year-Old Crypto Billionaire Wants to Give His Fortune Away. Bloomberg. [link] Ellison, C.. (September 21, 2021). https://worldoptimization.tumblr.com/post/642664297644916736/slatestarscratchpad-all-right-more-really-stupid [deleted]. World Optimization. [link] ftxfuturefund. (February 8, 2022, 05:32 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/ftxfuturefund/status/1498350483206860801. Twitter. [link] Gach, E.. (November 14, 2022). Crypto's Biggest Crash Saw Guy Playing League Of Legends While Luring Investors [Update]. Kotaku. [link] Hussein, F.. (November 16, 2022). House panel to hold hearing on cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapse. PBS News Hour. [link] Jenkinson, G.. (November 17, 2022). SBF received $1B in personal loans from Alameda: FTX bankruptcy filing. Cointelegraph. [link] Kulish, N.. (November 13, 2022). FTX's Collapse Casts a Pall on a Philanthropy Movement. The New York Times. [link] Levine, M.. (November 14, 2022). FTX's Balance Sheet Was Bad. Bloomberg. [link] Ligon,C., Reynolds, S., Kessler, S., De, N., & Decker, R.. (November 11, 2022). 'FTX Has Been Hacked': Crypto Disaster Worsens as Exchange Sees Mysterious Outflows Exceeding $600M. Coindesk. [link] Morrow, A.. (November 18, 2022). ‘Complete failure:' Filing reveals staggering mismanagement inside FTX . CNN. [link] Nick_Beckstead, leopold, ab, & ketanrama. (November 10, 2022). The FTX Future Fund team has resigned. Effective Altruism Forum. [link] Partz, H.. (November 9, 2022). FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried removes “assets are fine” flood from Twitter. Cointelegraph. [link] Piper, K.. (November 16, 2022). Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself. Vox. [link] Regan, M.P. & Hajric, V.. (November 12, 2022). SBF vs CZ: How 2 crypto billionaires' social media “bloodsport” went from keyboard warrior shenanigans to a $32 billion blowup. Fortune. [link] Rosenberg, E., Khartit, K., & McClay, R.. (August 26, 2022). What Is Yield Farming in Cryptocurrency?. The Balance. [link] sbf_ftx. (December 2, 2020, 09:25 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1334247283081138178. Twitter. [link] sbf_ftx. (December 11, 2020, 04:19 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1337250686870831107. Twitter. [link] sbf_ftx. (November 8, 2022, 04:03 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1590012124864348160. Twitter. [link] sbf_ftx. (November 10, 2022, 02:13 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1590709195892195329. Twitter. [link] sbf_ftx. (November 11, 2022, 03:23 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1591089317300293636. Twitter. [link] Sigalos, M. & Rooney, K.. (November 9, 2022). Binance backs out of FTX rescue, leaving the crypto exchange on the brink of collapse. CNBC. [link] tara_macaulay. (November 16, 2022, 08:57 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/tara_macaulay/status/1592985303262072834. Twitter. [link] taylorpearsonme. (November 10, 2022, 10:00 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/taylorpearsonme/status/1590826638429650944. Twitter. [link] Tsipursky, G.. (November 16, 2022). SBF's dangerous decision-making philosophy that brought down FTX. Fortune. [link] whalechart. (November 15, 2022, 06:46 AM UTC). https://twitter.com/whalechart/status/1592408565402464259. Twitter. [link] Wiblin, R. & Harris, K.. (April 14, 2022). Sam Bankman-Fried on taking a high-risk approach to crypto and doing good. 80,000 Hours. [link] Yaffe-Bellany, D.. (November 14, 2022). How Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire Collapsed. The New York Times. [link] yashkaf. (November 12, 2022, 07:18 PM UTC). https://twitter.com/yashkaf/status/1591606925149540353. Twitter. [link] FTX (company). Wikipedia. [link] Sam Bankman-Fried. Wikipedia. [link] StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Nov 23, 2022 • 55min

How to find out what people in rural communities really need (with Robert Chambers)

Read the full transcript here. What is the field of development? What are the differences between rapid and participatory rural appraisal? Under what conditions should qualitative surveys be preferred over quantitative and vice versa? What is participatory mapping? How has the field of development changed over the last few decades? Why do people get taller when sanitation improves?Robert Chambers is a British academic and development practitioner. He spent his academic career at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex. In 2013, he became an honorary fellow of the International Institute of Social Studies. He has been one of the leading advocates for putting the poor, destitute, and marginalized at the center of the processes of development policy since the 1980s. Learn more about him here. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Nov 16, 2022 • 60min

Building healthy relationships (with Jayson Gaddis)

Read the full transcript here. What are the main categories of interpersonal relationship problems? What's really going on when most people say they have a "communication" problem? What are the criteria for being a good listener? What's the "right" amount of conflict to have in a healthy relationship? How can we best express our wants and needs? What sorts of requests are reasonable (or not) to make of our relationship partners? People can get along just fine when they differ on little things, like the best flavor of ice cream; but how can people maintain relationships when they have deep differences in their core values?Jayson Gaddis is an author, relationship expert, and coach who teaches people the one class they didn't get in school: "How To Do Relationships." Jayson leads one of the most in-depth and comprehensive relationship educational programs and trains relationship coaches all over the world. Jayson is the host of The Relationship School Podcast, the founder of The Relationship School, and the author of Getting to Zero: How to Work Through Conflict in Your High-Stakes Relationships. Learn more about Jayson and his work via these links:Jayson:jaysongaddis.comFacebookInstagramThe Relationship School:relationshipschool.comFacebookInstagramFurther reading:"Interested in improving your relationships? Try Nonviolent Communication" by ClearerThinking.orgGetting to Zero by Jayson Gaddis StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Nov 9, 2022 • 1h 17min

Bringing rationality into politics (with Elizabeth Edwards-Appell)

Elizabeth Edwards-Appell, a political analyst and commentator, discusses campaign dynamics, non-voters' preferences, implications of voting against one's party, political capital, the impact of flip-flopping power, regulations by non-experts, dark triad traits in politicians, and the change in personality when becoming a politician. She also explores the challenges, rewards, and strategic advantages of being a politician, transparency in product claims, and the perception and traits of politicians. Additionally, she shares personal experiences with changing beliefs, committee votes, game theory reasoning in voting, mischaracterization of bills, and second-order effects of affirmative action.
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Nov 2, 2022 • 1h 47min

Sex workers — empowered, or victims? (with Melissa Broudo)

Read the full transcript here. Content warning: Please be aware that rape and sexual abuse are discussed in this episode. If you are particularly sensitive to these issues, then please take care when listening.How have identity politics and social media changed sex work? To what extent is sex work work? Under what conditions is a sex worker a victim of abuse? Why does rape seem so much worse than other kinds of physical abuse? Does an increase in access to sex workers necessarily cause an increase in infidelity? Are there psychological risks associated with sex work even for people that enjoy the work and are not otherwise harmed or abused? (For example, compared to the average person, is it harder for sex workers to form romantic relationships with others?) Does sex work reinforce or even amplify unwanted objectification and commodification of bodies? What are the various legal models of sex work being used around the world right now?Melissa Sontag Broudo, JD, MPH, has been part of the sex-worker-rights and harm-reduction movements since the late 1990s, furthering policy, advocacy, and capacity-building efforts that support the rights of sex workers and survivors of human trafficking. She has been able to push rights-based policies and legislative initiatives that support sex workers and survivors of human trafficking, including: expanded criminal record relief for survivors of trafficking, immunity for victims of crimes who engage in sexual labor, and the formation of study commissions to review data related to better health outcomes for all people in the sex industry. She won the first-ever vacatur motion for a survivor of human trafficking and provided technical expertise on these critical motions throughout New York state and the country. Melissa received her Bachelor of Arts from Brown University in gender studies in 2001. She received her Master of Public Health from the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University and a Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center through their dual degree program in 2006. Read more about Melissa's work at DecriminalizeSex.Work, or follow her on Instagram at @decrimsexwork or on Twitter at @decrimsex. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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Oct 26, 2022 • 1h 16min

What, if anything, do AIs understand? (with ChatGPT Co-Creator Ilya Sutskever)

Read the full transcript here. Can machines actually be intelligent? What sorts of tasks are narrower or broader than we usually believe? GPT-3 was trained to do a "single" task: predicting the next word in a body of text; so why does it seem to understand so many things? What's the connection between prediction and comprehension? What breakthroughs happened in the last few years that made GPT-3 possible? Will academia be able to stay on the cutting edge of AI research? And if not, then what will its new role be? How can an AI memorize actual training data but also generalize well? Are there any conceptual reasons why we couldn't make AIs increasingly powerful by just scaling up data and computing power indefinitely? What are the broad categories of dangers posed by AIs?Ilya Sutskever is Co-founder and Chief Scientist of OpenAI, which aims to build artificial general intelligence that benefits all of humanity. He leads research at OpenAI and is one of the architects behind the GPT models. Prior to OpenAI, Ilya was co-inventor of AlexNet and Sequence to Sequence Learning. He earned his Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Toronto. Follow him on Twitter at @ilyasut. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumJanaisa Baril — TranscriptionistMiles Kestran — MarketingMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

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