Win-Win vs. Moloch, the many-headed monster that may consume us all (with Liv Boeree)
Nov 1, 2023
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Liv Boeree, a renowned poker player turned educator and game theory researcher, dives deep into the concept of 'Moloch' and its impact on society. They explore how unhealthy competition can lead to detrimental outcomes, using examples from politics to social media. Boeree discusses the necessity for collaboration in navigating these Molochian scenarios, emphasizing innovative solutions and community-driven values. She also reflects on her journey from competitive poker to embracing a mindset of long-term cooperation and meaningful relationships.
Unhealthy competition driven by misaligned incentives, known as Moloch, leads to short-term goals that harm the overall system.
Healthy competition aligns individual incentives with the common good, driving progress and positive externalities.
Solutions to Molochian problems require coordination, collective action, and a shift towards win-win situations emphasizing long-term success over short-term gains.
Deep dives
Unhealthy competition and Moloch
Unhealthy competition and the concept of Moloch are discussed. Moloch is referred to as a war-obsessed cult that sacrificed their children to win at wars, which serves as a warning of sacrificing too much for narrow goals. Molochian problems reflect misaligned game-theoretic incentives that encourage short-term goals, harming the overall system. Examples are given, such as military arms races and the tragedy of the commons. Moloch is described as a negative force behind many global problems, driven by misaligned incentives. The need for alignment between individual incentives and the good of the whole is emphasized to solve Molochian problems.
Healthy competition
Healthy competition is contrasted with unhealthy competition. The Olympics and scientific innovation are cited as examples of healthy competition with positive externalities. In healthy competition, individual incentives are aligned with the common good. Examples also include business innovation with rewards for solving problems and advancing overall welfare. The value of healthy competition in driving progress is acknowledged, while noting that it can turn awry in certain situations.
Moloch in social media
Moloch's influence in social media is analyzed at various levels. Individuals seeking fame or growing followers are incentivized to focus on attention-grabbing content instead of quality or truth. Platforms engage in intense competition for user attention and engagement, although this often leads to addictive and potentially harmful content. The need to redefine metrics that prioritize user well-being rather than simply user engagement is highlighted. Proposed solutions include incorporating user feedback on long-term satisfaction and exploring zero-knowledge protocols to establish trustless verification.
Hopeful solutions and toolkit
Despite the complexity of Molochian problems, past achievements in overcoming such challenges provide hope for finding solutions. Examples such as the Montreal Protocol, nuclear disarmament treaties, and an agreement for maintaining peace in Antarctica demonstrate successful coordination and collective action. The necessity of both top-down and bottom-up approaches is acknowledged, alongside the importance of education, cultural change, and improved coordination mechanisms. Other potential tools for addressing Moloch problems include increasing the cost and risk of undesirable behavior, incentivizing positive actions, and leveraging technological advancements like zero-knowledge proofs.
The Concept of Win-Win Solutions
The podcast episode discusses the concept of win-win solutions as a counterbalance to the negative implications of Moloch, which represents unhealthy competition. Win-win is seen as a work in progress and embodies healthy competition, coordination, and cooperation. It represents the idea of knowing when to use competition and when to use cooperation. This concept is presented as a positive alternative to Moloch, being more carefree, fun-loving, and focused on long-term success rather than short-term gains. The speaker acknowledges that they may not have all the knowledge or solutions to create a mathematically rigorous system, but they aim to promote an aesthetic and mindset that encourages win-win situations as a solution to the problems presented by Moloch.
The Rationality to Wu Spectrum
The podcast touches upon the concept of the rationality to Wu spectrum, which represents a continuum of thinking styles. Rationality, on one end of the spectrum, represents an objectivist, linear, and physicalist mode of thinking. Wu, on the other end, represents a subjective, open-minded approach that considers alternative explanations and sources of information. The speaker shares personal experiences and experiments with various practices, such as energy healing, which challenge conventional scientific explanations. They highlight the value of exploring ideas outside the traditional rationality mindset, as groundbreaking discoveries often emerge from this open-mindedness. While acknowledging the importance of skepticism and seekingness, the speaker emphasizes the need for balance and the potential for breakthrough insights to come from approaching topics with a more 'Woo' mindset.
Who's Moloch? And what do we mean when we call something "Molochian"? What does healthy competition look like? How can we avoid or extricate ourselves from Molochian scenarios? Are our instincts about fairness and unfairness usually accurate? Is it possible for today's social media giants to create products that people want to use and that are actually good for people to use? What kinds of problems could conceivably be solved by "trustless" solutions? or "high-trust" solutions? Where do you fall on the "rationality-to-woo" spectrum? When do we not want to find rational explanations for mysterious phenomena? What kinds of new rational explanations might we find if we opened our minds to more "woo"?
Liv Boeree is one of the UK’s most successful poker players, winning multiple titles during her professional career, including a European Poker Tour Championship and World Series of Poker bracelet. Originally trained in astrophysics, she now works as an educator and researcher specializing in the intersection of game theory, technology, and catastrophic risk reduction. Her main focus areas at present are the risks posed by artificial intelligence and other exponential technologies. She is also a co-founder of Raising for Effective Giving (REG), an advisory organization that uses scientific methods to identify and fundraise for the most globally impactful charitable causes. Her latest project is the newly launched Win-Win Podcast, which explores the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Follow her on Twitter at @liv_boeree.
