The Trivium China Podcast

While there was never any doubt that China would hit its 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5%,” the general consensus was that full-year growth would come in somewhere near the bottom end of what might acceptably be considered “around.”Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in 2024.Even more surprising was that the economy had grown by 5.4% y/y in Q4 without any additional stimulus, when Q3 growth had only been 4.6%.In this week’s macro podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss where the growth came from (spoiler alert: it was exports) and whether it’s sustainable in 2025.They also discuss Andrew’s insights from his recent jaunt to Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

2025 is off to a rollicking start – especially when it comes to all things China.After an extended hiatus from the pod, your friendly Trivium China team is back in the saddle to keep you up to date on all the latest happenings.This episode features a discussion on the week’s back-and-forth between China and the US on the econ and tech fronts, featuring:Your loyal pod host, Andrew Polk, Trivium Co-founderTrey McArver, Trivium Co-founderCory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain ResearchAfter setting the scene with a quick rundown of the bevy of back-and-forth punches between the two countries since the start of the year, the gents dig into China’s response to the latest Trump tariffs, discussing:The multi-faceted nature of the response – and the message Beijing is trying to send the Trump administrationWhat these moves mean for China’s future approach to economic and tech competition with the USThe disparity between Trump’s across-the-board tariffs versus Xi’s moves to inflict more targeted painWhat lies ahead in China’s evolving use of its export control regimeThere was a lot of ground to cover – and we suspect this is only the beginning.

In the final weeks of each year, the Party convenes the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) – a gathering of China’s top economic policymakers – to hammer out the economic agenda for the year ahead.In this podcast, our last for 2024, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what we learned from this year’s CEWC.We didn’t have high hopes for the readout from the CEWC.The summary typically gives away very little.But the document was a little meatier than usual this year.Andrew and Dinny discuss:How authorities will try to boost consumptionFiscal and monetary policy plans for the year aheadTheir thoughts on the leaked GDP growth and budget deficit targets for 2025

China’s approach to economic retaliation against the US continues to evolve, with the past 10 days seeing a new round of critical mineral export controls and the launch of an anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia.This week Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research Cory Combs to go through all the latest.The gents discuss:The details of China’s latest export controls on critical mineralsChina’s evolving approach to economic retaliation against the USWhy we all should have seen this comingThe most likely minerals next on China’s export control listChina’s new long-arm jurisdiction approach to enforcement of export controlsThe anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia – and the likely options moving forwardOne key takeaway: The timing of these most recent moves by China – as the Biden administration winds down and the Trump administration gears up – seems particularly canny.Biden can do little to respond.And Trump has no incentive to respond, at least not at this point.The upshot: China appears to be signaling to Trump that it is better prepared to fight back on the trade and tech war fronts this time around.So your move, Mr. Trump!

As the year draws to a close, it’s time for economic forecasts!In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what they expect from China’s economy in 2025.To do so, they dive into their expectations for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), the annual year-end gathering of China’s top economic policymakers, expected to take place next week.The gents discuss their predictions for what the CEWC will decide regarding key policy settings for 2025, including:Interest ratesThe exchange rateFiscal spending

Xi Jinping had a busy week of diplomacy in South America, and in this episode of the Trivium China podcast we get into all of it.Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:Xi Jinping’s diplomacy in Latin America – and how that fits into China’s wider geopolitical strategyChina’s courting of the Global South in an age of US protectionismThe remarkably creative approach that Chinese officials seem to be prepping as a second US-China trade war loomsWhat to watch as China's approach to the US unfolds in the years ahead

On November 8, China finally unveiled its long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.It fell well short of expectations and raised plenty of new questions about how Beijing is dealing with the economy.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ways in which the package disappointed them and what they think comes next.They delve into:What the package means for financial stability and local government austerity policiesWhat additional fiscal support we can expect in the new yearWhy the package undershot expectationsThey also spend some time discussing Beijing's uninspired response to weak household spending, and whether authorities have misdiagnosed a structural problem as cyclical.

In this week’s policy discussion, your friendly Trivium China team takes a step back to look at how China’s approach to economic coercion is evolving.Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver to examine how Chinese officials have steadily built up robust countersanctions and export control regimes to hit back against perceived US economic aggression.They start by looking at the latest restrictions on US drone maker Skydio under the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and also discuss recent moves to:Undertake an Unreliable Entity List investigation into PVH Group, the US parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, for complying with the US Uyghur Forced Labor Protection ActPotentially begin a cybersecurity review of Intel’s products in ChinaConduct a cybersecurity review of US chipmaker Micron’s products in ChinaBolster the wider export control regimeThe upshot: Chinese officials appear to be going on the offensive with their countersanctions and export control regimes.Andrew and Trey discuss what it all means for foreign companies in China, US-China relations under a second Trump administration, and the broader securitization of the global economy.

After waiting over a month for a stimulus package from Beijing, we now know when to expect it – November 8, at the conclusion of a meeting by the legislature’s (NPC) standing committee.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what’s likely to be in the stimulus package and where it might prove surprising.They also discuss how the upcoming US Presidential election factors into Beijing’s policy making, and whether it might influence the stimulus package.

The economic print for the third quarter of 2024 was pretty bad.But even among all the grey clouds, there were some silver linings in the numbers.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, walk through the good and the bad of China’s most recent macro data.They then discuss a recent essay by Liu Yuanchun, China’s most influential economic advisor, about the rationale behind recent support measures, and why the support amounts to more than just stimulus.The gents also discuss:Why it’s taken Beijing so long to commit to providing stimulusWhat can we expect from monetary policy in the year ahead