The Trivium China Podcast Ep 26 - China explores its key points of trade leverage: rare earth export control updates + sanctions threats
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May 23, 2025 Cory Combs, head of critical mineral and supply chain research at Trivium China, dives deep into the intricacies of rare earth export controls and U.S.-China trade dynamics. He discusses China’s recent export license approvals and the unlikely scenario of easing dual-use export restrictions. The conversation touches on the repercussions for U.S. manufacturers and highlights China’s retaliatory tactics against companies compliant with U.S. regulations. Combs emphasizes the fragile state of the 90-day de-escalation and what might disrupt this tentative peace.
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China's Rare Earth Export Controls
- China will likely keep rare earths on its dual-use export control list but stop selectively denying U.S. license applications.
- License approvals before the Geneva detente were delayed; recent approvals were for non-U.S. entities and predated the agreement.
Why Controls Won't Fully Roll Back
- Removing rare earths from dual-use controls would signal China admitted they aren't a national security concern.
- China sees no strategic benefit in fully rolling back these controls because it preserves important leverage.
Rare Earths and U.S. Defense Imports
- Defense companies face near certain denial of Chinese rare earth export licenses.
- Most U.S. rare earth imports are intermediate goods reliant on Chinese minerals, complicating supply chain security.