The Trivium China Podcast Ep 21 - Trivium Markets and Politics - US-China tariff dumpster fire
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Apr 10, 2025 The discussion dives into the escalating tariff tensions between the US and China, exploring the potential for a spiraling conflict. Insights are shared on how each country may be misreading the other, alongside possible off-ramps for de-escalation. They examine the likely impacts on the global economy and debate both the optimistic and pessimistic futures of trade relations. Additionally, concerns are raised about the flood of Chinese goods into Europe and how China might support its economy amid these challenges. Buckle up for a whirlwind of insights!
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Economic Uncertainty
- Escalating trade wars create uncertainty in the global economy and bilateral relations.
- This uncertainty fuels concerns about potential recessions in the US and globally.
Escalatory Spiral
- Current tariff levels are already prohibitive, rendering further increases less impactful.
- The conflict now revolves around egos and appearances, making de-escalation difficult.
China's Restraint
- China's latest retaliation was less aggressive, suggesting a desire to avoid further escalation.
- It's unclear if the US will interpret this correctly.