The Trivium China Podcast

The economic print for the third quarter of 2024 was pretty bad.But even among all the grey clouds, there were some silver linings in the numbers.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, walk through the good and the bad of China’s most recent macro data.They then discuss a recent essay by Liu Yuanchun, China’s most influential economic advisor, about the rationale behind recent support measures, and why the support amounts to more than just stimulus.The gents also discuss:Why it’s taken Beijing so long to commit to providing stimulusWhat can we expect from monetary policy in the year ahead

It’s been a busy couple of weeks for China’s regulators. In quick succession there have been press conferences hosted by the economic planner (NDRC), Ministry of Finance (MoF), and housing ministry (MoHURD).Yet none of them have delivered what everyone’s waiting for: stimulus.Of course, as is always the case, the devils in the detail – and the regulators left out a lot of detail.In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what was announced at the MoF and MoHURD press conferences.They then get into the potential shape of what the stimulus package will look like, and what they’re hoping for.

The big story out of Beijing this week has been fiscal stimulus: it didn’t materialize on Tuesday at the economic planner’s (NDRC) press conference, and now all eyes are on the finance ministry’s (MoF) press conference on Saturday.In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, talk all things stimulus, covering:The likely timing of the much-anticipated fiscal stimulusHow much might be rolled outAnd how it will be usedFinally, they get into the constraints holding Beijing back from doing more.

It’s been a BIG week for economic policy in China.On September 24, the central bank (PBoC) rolled out a range of monetary support measures to bolster the economy, boost share prices, and provide property developers with financial relief.On September 26, the Politburo surprised everyone by dedicating its September meeting to the economy, with the meeting readout strongly hinting that more fiscal support is coming.In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Head of China Markets Research Dinny McMahon discuss:Why rates were cut, even after the PBoC said cuts are increasingly difficultThe implications of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and why PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng took the unusual step of providing forward guidance about a potential additional cutWhy the PBoC is prepared to throw up to RMB 2.4 trillion in central bank funding into the stock marketWhat a fiscal stimulus from Beijing might look like