The Trivium China Podcast

In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk links up with Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver. The two:Pick up on last week’s conversation about foreign businesses in China, walking through Xi Jinping’s big meeting with foreign CEOs on FridayDiscuss China’s intervention in the Panama port deal between BlackRock and CK HutchisonPreview China’s likely response to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffsThen Andrew speaks with Trivium’s Head of China Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to get into Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying car technology.This one covers a lot of ground – and you won’t want to miss any of it.

Ether Yin, co-founder of Trivium China, and Joe Mazur, head of geopolitical research at Trivium China, delve into the latest insights from the China Development Forum. They analyze the contrasting moods of domestic and foreign businesses in China. The discussion highlights Beijing's evolving economic coercion tactics, recent updates to the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, and the role of U.S.-China relations in shaping business dynamics. They also explore how foreign companies are adapting to new regulatory challenges, shedding light on the intricate balance of opportunity and risk.

In this discussion with Even Pay, Director at Trivium China and an expert in agriculture policy and geopolitics, captivating insights into China's latest consumption boost plan unfold. They express skepticism about its effectiveness in reviving consumer spending. The conversation also covers the ramifications of the U.S.-China trade war on agriculture, with a focus on food security and China's strategic agricultural innovations. They touch on the evolving dynamics of trade relations and what lies ahead for global commodities markets.

In this discussion, Lewis Black, co-founder and CEO of Almonty Industries, and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research at Trivium China, delve into the pressing issues of critical minerals and supply chain geopolitics. They explore why the West is overly reliant on Chinese supply chains and the wake-up call the 2008 financial crisis should have been. The conversation shifts to addressing the disparities between commercial and national interests, as well as strategies for the U.S. to diversify its critical supply chains.

The wait is over: China’s annual policy extravaganza, the Two Sessions, kicked off in Beijing on March 4.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, head of markets research, unpack the key economic targets in Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report.Given the economic headwinds – sluggish consumer demand, deflationary pressures, ongoing property sector woes, and an escalating trade war with the US – the stakes are high for getting the policy settings right.The gents kick things off by analyzing the implications of the 2025 GDP, inflation, and budget deficit targets for China’s economic prospects.They then dig into the spending and borrowing targets for the year ahead.Spoiler alert: There are some big numbers, but there’s less here than meets the eye.Finally, they wrap up with a quick discussion of China’s rapid-fire response to the second round of Trump tariffs.And this BIG: With this podcast episode, we are officially joining the Sinica Podcast Network. Following Dinny and Andrew's conversation, stay tuned for a follow up conversation between Trivium China Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, and the man behind Sinica, Kaiser Kuo.It's a great discussion, and we're all excited about the new pod partnership!

The firehose of tech-related China policy developments has been at full blast over the past few weeks.And as always, Trivium is here to break down all the latest.In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium Partner and Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss:Xi Jinping’s recent confab with private-sector tech executivesWhat the meeting portends for private companies’ future role in advancing China’s tech ambitionsThe recent bevy of AI infrastructure investment announcements out of ChinaHow the recent DeepSeek revelation is driving it allChina’s likely response to Trump’s America First Investment PolicyThey also touch on whether “another DeepSeek” is lurking somewhere in China’s AI ecosystem, just waiting to be discovered – and how to find it.If we do say so ourselves: This one is a can’t-miss, folks.We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did.We’ll have a lot more on all these topics in future episodes.

To thrive in the long term, China needs to undergo near-total industrial restructuring.So how’s that going?In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss the key dynamics driving China’s policy-driven industrial transition, including:How Beijing has been using calls for climate action to drive industrial production up the value chainWhere China’s painfully overcrowded new energy vehicle (NEV) market goes from hereWhat recent renewable energy reforms in the world’s largest electricity system mean for the future of both energy and manufacturing in ChinaIn looking at the issues, the gents draw from some of our less publicly visible research – providing snapshots of a much bigger (and messier) picture.Which is to say, there’s much more to come.

While there was never any doubt that China would hit its 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5%,” the general consensus was that full-year growth would come in somewhere near the bottom end of what might acceptably be considered “around.”Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in 2024.Even more surprising was that the economy had grown by 5.4% y/y in Q4 without any additional stimulus, when Q3 growth had only been 4.6%.In this week’s macro podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss where the growth came from (spoiler alert: it was exports) and whether it’s sustainable in 2025.They also discuss Andrew’s insights from his recent jaunt to Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

2025 is off to a rollicking start – especially when it comes to all things China.After an extended hiatus from the pod, your friendly Trivium China team is back in the saddle to keep you up to date on all the latest happenings.This episode features a discussion on the week’s back-and-forth between China and the US on the econ and tech fronts, featuring:Your loyal pod host, Andrew Polk, Trivium Co-founderTrey McArver, Trivium Co-founderCory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain ResearchAfter setting the scene with a quick rundown of the bevy of back-and-forth punches between the two countries since the start of the year, the gents dig into China’s response to the latest Trump tariffs, discussing:The multi-faceted nature of the response – and the message Beijing is trying to send the Trump administrationWhat these moves mean for China’s future approach to economic and tech competition with the USThe disparity between Trump’s across-the-board tariffs versus Xi’s moves to inflict more targeted painWhat lies ahead in China’s evolving use of its export control regimeThere was a lot of ground to cover – and we suspect this is only the beginning.

In the final weeks of each year, the Party convenes the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) – a gathering of China’s top economic policymakers – to hammer out the economic agenda for the year ahead.In this podcast, our last for 2024, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what we learned from this year’s CEWC.We didn’t have high hopes for the readout from the CEWC.The summary typically gives away very little.But the document was a little meatier than usual this year.Andrew and Dinny discuss:How authorities will try to boost consumptionFiscal and monetary policy plans for the year aheadTheir thoughts on the leaked GDP growth and budget deficit targets for 2025