The Trivium China Podcast Ep 27 - Weaponizing supply chains + the real-time breakdown of the Geneva détente
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May 30, 2025 Kendra Schaefer, Trivium China's head of tech policy research, and Ether Yin, head of policy research focusing on China's net zero transition, delve into the recent U.S. export controls on chip technology and their ramifications for China. They discuss the implications of the Trump administration's restrictions on Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools and potential responses from China. The conversation touches on the challenges for Chinese firms in the semiconductor market, and the strategic maneuvers both countries may take amid escalating trade tensions.
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EDA Software Complexity and Importance
- Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software is critical and extremely complex for semiconductor design, central to the chip supply chain.
- China struggles to develop leading-edge EDA software despite strong tech talent, revealing the complexity of producing these tools.
US Firms Dominate EDA Market
- The EDA market is dominated by three US companies holding over 85% market share in China.
- Chinese domestic EDA firms are far behind and unlikely to quickly fill the gap if US companies stop sales.
China's Expected Retaliation Moves
- China will retaliate against US export controls, likely by delaying US M&A deals and tightening rare earth export controls.
- These retaliations are calibrated but increase tensions amid ongoing US-China tech disputes.