The Trivium China Podcast

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. The gents get into China's:Latest export miraclePersistently weak household consumptionEfforts to deal with overcapacityThen they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.

China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans.The two discuss:The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid out in the recently released US AI planThe conflicting messages on whether US export controls will loosen or tighten going forward – and Beijing’s perception of the issueHow the US plans to get allied countries on board with its AI planThe competing visions around open-source AI developmentChina’s pitch to the world for inclusive AI development, in its new AI planAnd which horse the rest of the world will likely back, given the competing US and Chinese approachesIt’s good to be back!After taking an unscheduled break for a few weeks, we are glad to finally be back in your podcast feed!Our apologies to listeners for the short hiatus, but this discussion was worth the wait. Enjoy!

Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors?Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zombie firms from exiting the market.The two discuss:The most recent meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs – which took direct aim at these issuesOther signs that momentum is building for a more forceful approachThe ongoing challenges that such a policy pivot would faceParallels between this moment and mid-2016 – the last time a significant new macro policy framework was rolled outThe gents also dive into their takeaways from the June Politburo meeting – as the Party looks to better coordinate its top policymaking bodies – and touch briefly on the latest rumors that Xi Jinping is losing his grip on power.Spoiler alert: We don’t buy the rumors. It’s another fun one – so enjoy!

At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization.Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.But Pan's comments suggest Beijing thinks things might be about to get easier – with global faith in the dollar starting to erode, countries and companies might soon start looking for viable alternatives.That could create an opportunity for the RMB – as long as China is ready to grab it.In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the implications of Pan's comments, and the flurry of recent measures in support of RMB internationalization.

Ether Yin, Head of policy research at Trivium China, specializes in navigating Chinese government policy, while Joe Mazur leads geopolitical research focusing on U.S.-China relations. They discuss the resurgence of consumer confidence in Beijing, fueled by increased tourism and spending on luxury items. The duo also unpacks the latest challenges in U.S.-China trade talks and the implications of China's geopolitical stance for international relations, particularly in light of G7 dynamics and EU concerns. Tune in for insights that blend economic trends with hot geopolitical takes!

Hosts Andrew Polk and Trey McArver break down the recent phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that revived US-China trade talks. They highlight the critical misunderstandings that almost derailed discussions and explore China's rare earth export controls, revealing their effects on global manufacturing. The conversation also touches on the EU's precarious position in these negotiations and the hope for a lasting trade agreement. Overall, there's cautious optimism as the trade dialogue seems to be improving for now.

Kendra Schaefer, Trivium China's head of tech policy research, and Ether Yin, head of policy research focusing on China's net zero transition, delve into the recent U.S. export controls on chip technology and their ramifications for China. They discuss the implications of the Trump administration's restrictions on Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools and potential responses from China. The conversation touches on the challenges for Chinese firms in the semiconductor market, and the strategic maneuvers both countries may take amid escalating trade tensions.

Cory Combs, head of critical mineral and supply chain research at Trivium China, dives deep into the intricacies of rare earth export controls and U.S.-China trade dynamics. He discusses China’s recent export license approvals and the unlikely scenario of easing dual-use export restrictions. The conversation touches on the repercussions for U.S. manufacturers and highlights China’s retaliatory tactics against companies compliant with U.S. regulations. Combs emphasizes the fragile state of the 90-day de-escalation and what might disrupt this tentative peace.

Ether Yin, a policy expert based in Shanghai, joins co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver to delve into the recent trade war de-escalation. They explore China's strategic move to issue licenses for critical mineral exports to the U.S., signaling a temporary thaw. The discussion also highlights China's growing ties with Latin America and the implications of these developments on global economic relations. Tune in for insights on trade strategies and the evolving dynamics between superpowers!

It’s been a long time coming, but Beijing is finally ramping up economic support to counter the fallout from tariffs.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the wave of monetary policy measures rolled out by financial regulators on Wednesday.The gents get into the nitty gritty of China’s financial system – with forays into PBoC relending facilities, provident fund mortgages, and insurance companies’ capital requirements – to explain just what officials hope to achieve.They then round things off with a chat about the latest developments in the US-China trade war, and touch on China’s plan to double down on exports in the years ahead.Enjoy!