This Means War

In this discussion, Justin Bronk, a Senior Research Fellow for Air Power at RUSI in London, illuminates the surprising resilience and evolving capabilities of the Russian Air Force after three years of conflict in Ukraine. He argues that traditional air power and piloted aircraft still hold critical value, despite the rise of drones. Bronk also critiques NATO’s reliance on the US model while stressing the urgent need for European nations to adapt their military strategies and strengthen their air power in the face of emerging threats.

The West has not deterred Russia from destabilising Europe, the Caucasus, North and Sub Saharan Africa, or the Middle East. Moscow has undertaken war-like activity in NATO states since the 1990s: from assassination, subterfuge and sabotage to attacks on critical national infrastructure, political interference and industrial espionage. Russian expert Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in London, explains what Russia wants, how the West misunderstands Russian societal desires, the Russian way of war, measures of success, and why economics and prosperity just aren’t important to them. Keir finishes with a discussion on what it takes to deter Russia: this has been done before and could be done again. It just takes political will. Whether European leaders have that is a completely different question.

Ed Arnold, a Senior Research Fellow for European Security at RUSI, explores the critical shift in Europe's defense landscape as reliance on U.S. support diminishes. He discusses the implications of U.S. military withdrawal and the urgent necessity for European nations to enhance their defense capabilities. The conversation touches on the need for increased spending and collaborative leadership within NATO to address emerging threats. Arnold also highlights challenges in defense standardization and the potential impact of changing U.S. foreign policy on European security.

If the relationship between a government, the military, and industry is to really change from a transactional one towards a sincere partnership it must be underpinned by a new era of honesty and clarity. Simon Kings, Exec BD Director of Raytheon UK, talks about what has changed for industry since 2022, and what the threat picture looks like for the DIB. The discussion covers procurement and acquisition, processes and modernisation, challenges to delivery, and what the reality of ‘sovereignty’ as a political ambition statement looks like. Foundational to all of this is Simon’s description of the way industry (and shareholders) make investment decisions: yet another set of political speeches and promises, policies and transformations, doesn’t cut it. Clarity about which bits of national security are not going to be funded are as important as the revelations of what is to be renewed. That honesty and clarity seems to have been missing for several decades. Will this be the moment it changes?

James Heappey, former UK Minister of the Armed Forces and military veteran, delves into the complex politics behind national security strategies. He discusses the balancing act of securing defense funding while addressing public perceptions. The conversation highlights the varying understandings of national security among politicians and the public's focus on local issues. Heappey also emphasizes the crucial role of personnel in the military versus technological advancements, and the pressing need for increased defense investment amid global geopolitical challenges.

The continual changes to British defence acquisition and procurement processes, frameworks, doctrines, strategies and plans have wreaked havoc with the military equipment plan for decades. Various – and sometimes radical – reforms have been tried to evolve a system that is ubiquitously criticised from everyone inside (and outside) the national security community. No one is happy, yet most people actually involved in it are trying very hard to make it work. This is not a uniquely British problem however: There is nowhere in the world that people are content with their procurement system - each one could be faster, buy better kit, deliver imporved value-for-money and quality, pleasing taxpayers as well as the people who use the kit. Given that the on-going UK SDR must try and come up with some recommendations to make it ‘better’ (hopefully in a different way than every other one has promised to do since 1997), what are the opportunities and risks this time around? Dr Andrew Curtis helps us think thus through with some sage advice: how about starting by implementing all the bits of some previous attempts at reform?

Tom Karako, a global missile defense expert from CSIS, shares his insights on the UK’s missile defense inadequacies amidst growing threats. He discusses the evolving landscape of missile capabilities stemming from recent global conflicts and the necessity for stronger defense infrastructures. Tom highlights the challenges faced by European militaries in modernizing legacy systems, and he dives into the potential of non-kinetic technologies like lasers. His pragmatism offers a roadmap for future defense strategies and success metrics for upcoming UK capabilities.

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In this engaging conversation, Maria de Goeij Reid, a Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University, dives into the complexities of national security. She argues for the importance of strategic empathy in understanding adversaries and emphasizes a shift from 'convenient threats' to 'inconvenient threats' like pandemics. Maria highlights the necessity of nuanced behavioral analysis in understanding adversarial intentions and calls for enhanced societal resilience and interdisciplinary approaches to better prepare for unpredictable global challenges.

Professor Tony King, an expert on contemporary military threats and author of 'Command' and 'Urban Warfare', explores the evolving landscape of warfare. He discusses the implications of a potential Trump presidency and highlights the rise of state-sponsored proxies. Key topics include the challenges posed by new weapons, the intricacies of decision-making, and the crucial role of AI. Tony emphasizes skepticism regarding AI's promised efficiencies, advocating for human oversight and innovative military strategies to adapt to fast-changing threats.