This Means War

Paul Cornish, a Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Exeter, dives into the complexities of contemporary warfare and the shortcomings of the UK's national security strategies. He criticizes the oversimplified narratives surrounding modern threats, emphasizing the need for genuine strategic thinking. The conversation highlights evolving issues like cybercrime and climate change, alongside a caution against over-reliance on technology in military contexts. Cornish also draws parallels between today's challenges and pre-Cold War dynamics, advocating for a comprehensive understanding of defense.

This mini series about NATO has taken some people out of their comfort zone: nonetheless, there has been a lot of positive feedback about the honesty of these conversation about the Alliance. In the final episode of this series, Peter talks again to Professor Julian Lindley French about NATO’s friends and enemies and tackle some questions from listeners. In the end, they address the thorny question of a second Trump presidency and what that could mean for the Alliance.   The series has been is co-sponsored by NATO Public Diplomacy Division. It’s reassuring to know that the Alliance has the self-confidence to foster an honest and open debate about NATO. That’s not something you would find from lesser organisations. Chapeau!

NATO is rarely covered by mainstream news outlets between annual summits yet the work goes on constantly. In this episode, Peter talks to Professor Julian Lindley-French about the unsung heroes of the Alliance: the PermReps, the MilReps, the International Staff, the International Military Staff, and the Chairman of the Military Committee. Whilst the Sec Gen and SACEUR get all the headlines, it is this team of dedicated professionals who make deterrence and denial actually happen. Kudos to them.   This episode is co-sponsored by NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

NATO is often trumpeted as the most successful military Alliance in human history: a grand claim indeed. The reality is less definitive. NATO did not win the Cold War alone nor has it had military success in every campaign; it was not responsible for the end of piracy off Somalia and the training missions in the Middle East did not deliver what was promised. The Alliance can be disfunctional, self-serving, and procedural inept too. Yet it has also delivered the underpinnings of peace and security for 75 years to member states. What has made it successful and what has undermined the other bits? Peter talks to Professor Julian Lindley-French about political leadership and strategy, the failure of advice, the inability to implement plans, and the European problem of only recognising as much threat (to national security) as you can afford.

Professors Peter Roberts and Julian Lindley French try and put the 75th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty in perspective: how much of the history of the Alliance remains relevant today? NATO is certainly an impressive organisation on the surface – but it isn’t perfect. What does the future hold? What of Old Europe/New Europe, American isolationism, and what does Chinese imperialism means for NATO? Much covered and debated in an episode that looks at the least-worst Alliance in military history. This episode was co-sponsored by NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

Dive into the gripping lessons from the 1973 Yom Kippur War, where intelligence failures and strategic surprises led to unexpected casualties. Explore the remarkable adaptability of the Israeli Navy and their innovative combat tactics against powerful foes. Unpack the evolution of Multi-Domain Operations and the critical importance of logistics and psychological factors in warfare. Gain insights into how past conflicts have shaped modern military strategies and the value of effective communication under pressure.

Dr. Paddy Walker, a co-author of the recent book 'Wars Changed Landscape?', shares insights on the evolution of warfare. He discusses how understanding the norms and forms of combat provides a richer context for contemporary conflicts. The podcast dives into the interplay of enduring and new military norms influenced by technology and socio-behavioral factors. Walker also reflects on his writing journey and the role of historical context in adapting military strategies, offering a fresh perspective on the complexities of modern warfare.

Peter is joined by John Hemmings from the US and Malcolm Davies from Australia to talk about AUKUS. Since the security agreement was signed in September 2021, taking many people by surprise, the security situation in the Indo Pacific has deteriorated. But progress on both Pillar One and Pillar Two activities has not been rapid. Indeed, it sometimes feels like wading through treacle – despite the PR hype and political speeches. Peter, Malcolm and John try to identify the hurdles and challenges to progress and where the solutions might lie. There are also a series of warnings that lie within: It may be that if we don’t give industry a big enough role, domestic and political change in 2024 could put an end to the partnership before it delivers. This episode is sponsored by Leidos. For more information on what Leidos do in national security and defense, go to https://www.leidos.com/company/our-business/defense  

Professor Julian Lindley-French, a national security expert and conference convener, shares insights from a recent gathering of international defense specialists. They discuss the critical need for Western militaries to adapt to emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing to counter threats from nations such as China and Russia. The conversation highlights the strategic disconnect in European military investments and stresses the urgency of increased spending and cooperation within NATO. Lindley-French also emphasizes the importance of educating policymakers on modern warfare dynamics.

Some states face complex calculations in balancing their reactions to wars happening around them. Many (perhaps most?) governments of the day are approaching wars with less of an eye to the region and the future, and more towards domestic agendas and opinions. That is certainly the case in Europe. Importantly, decisions on foreign policy alignment are far more precarious for regional actors. For the conflict in Gazza following the terrorist atrocities conducted by Hamas in Israel in October 2023, understanding why Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey are making the decisions that they are is important. After all, perhaps it is only through their eyes that we can see who is really winning.