Non-military risks are increasingly highlighted as significant factors in national security discussions, yet they often receive insufficient attention. The 2024 UK National Security Risk Register marks incidents like the 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash cloud as relevant threats that could disrupt air traffic and financial stability, but it doesn't address the broader implications of environmental changes. Analyzing the volcanic eruption and its effects illustrates that more extensive ramifications exist beyond immediate disruptions. Recognizing the multifaceted nature of non-military threats requires a holistic approach to strategic defense reviews.
The Criticality of Historical Context
Understanding historical context is crucial in evaluating contemporary risks and national security policies. The conversation emphasizes the need to question the timing of events and how historical patterns influence current realities, such as pandemics and food supply crises. For example, insights drawn from historical events like the rise of regimes in the 20th century provide valuable lessons for modern threats. This historical awareness can help policymakers avoid repeating past mistakes and prepare for future challenges.
Food Security and Agricultural Practices
Food production and distribution are pivotal to societal stability, yet they are often underestimated in national security considerations. As global populations increase amidst changing climate conditions, food insecurity and rising costs become pressing issues that can lead to societal unrest. Historical practices in agriculture highlight the long-standing manipulation of food systems, and modern technology has the potential to yield significant improvements. However, the focus on food must extend beyond mere availability to encompass equitable distribution, especially in low-income regions.
Risks Associated with Rare Earth Minerals
Rare earth minerals are essential for technological development and defense capabilities, yet their supply presents security concerns. The conversation outlines how reliance on these minerals can sharpen geopolitical tensions as countries vie for resources. While the West often hoards technology, there's a growing realization that equitable distribution of these resources is critical for fostering global stability. Addressing the challenges in securing rare earth supplies demands a concerted effort to develop sustainable relationships and partnerships across different nations.
National security risk registers capture a large number of potential threats to societies. So should any review of national security or national defence. The impacts of these risks are often more severe than predicted, and we are due a few more (according to pattern analysis over the history of the planet). Professor Peter Frankopan, global best-selling author and world renowned historian, talks through some of the big issues that should be on the agenda of any threat-based national security review including food, health, fuel, water, and raw materials.
The UK has a sound record of identifying these threats - even if successsive governments are poor at preparing for them. It is somewhat puzzling that any review of national security, like the one that the UK is currently undertaking, should be focused solely on military, geopolitical and technology risks and not those that might prove a much greater challenge to the safety and security of the state.
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