This Means War
SDR Threat Series: Misunderstanding Adversaries and Inconvenient Threats
Dec 4, 2024
In this engaging conversation, Maria de Goeij Reid, a Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University, dives into the complexities of national security. She argues for the importance of strategic empathy in understanding adversaries and emphasizes a shift from 'convenient threats' to 'inconvenient threats' like pandemics. Maria highlights the necessity of nuanced behavioral analysis in understanding adversarial intentions and calls for enhanced societal resilience and interdisciplinary approaches to better prepare for unpredictable global challenges.
34:36
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Quick takeaways
- A comprehensive national security strategy must integrate resilience and economic factors, transcending military-focused perspectives to effectively address emerging threats.
- Improved behavioral analysis and the revival of deep area specialists are essential for enhancing understanding of adversaries, thereby preventing misguided deterrence strategies.
Deep dives
Understanding Misinterpretations in Global Conflicts
Current national security threats largely stem from misjudging the behaviors and intentions of other states and vice versa. This misunderstanding can leave countries vulnerable to real risks or lead to unnecessary escalations, hindering effective decision-making. Improved behavioral analysis, particularly beyond traditional military contexts, is essential for fostering accurate threat assessments. Incorporating concepts like bounded rationality—recognizing that decisions are often influenced by subjective perceptions—can help create more realistic threat evaluations.
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