This Means War SDR Threat series: National Security without US guarantees
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Mar 11, 2025 Ed Arnold, a Senior Research Fellow for European Security at RUSI, explores the critical shift in Europe's defense landscape as reliance on U.S. support diminishes. He discusses the implications of U.S. military withdrawal and the urgent necessity for European nations to enhance their defense capabilities. The conversation touches on the need for increased spending and collaborative leadership within NATO to address emerging threats. Arnold also highlights challenges in defense standardization and the potential impact of changing U.S. foreign policy on European security.
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US Deprioritization of Europe
- The US has been signaling a European defense deprioritization for 15 years, regardless of political party.
- The real shift is the US-Russia rapprochement, leaving Europe out.
Baltic Warnings
- Ed Arnold recalls Baltic officers at SHAPE in 2014 warning about Russian activity in Crimea.
- Their concerns were initially dismissed by the UK government in favor of other priorities.
Trump's Bilateral Approach
- The Trump administration favors bilateral deals, sidestepping multilateral institutions.
- Poland benefits from this approach, becoming a key logistics hub for US activity in Europe.