Yesterday I had Peter R. Quiñones on the podcast to discuss the upcoming Presidential Election, geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine, and our occupied government. You should all go check out Pete’s podcast and his Twitter. He’s a very entertaining follow, and his frequent podcasts are one of the reasons I stayed sane during the COVID lockdowns a couple years ago.Podcast Summary* The predicament that the Regime has with letting Trump become President.* Why he thinks Trump will win, and why the election won’t be called on election night.* Which swing states might have issues with the vote.* The potential for lawfare or another assassination attempt before inauguration day.* Jeff Bezos and some of the recent developments at the Washington Post* His thoughts on Elon Musk’s influence, and how the Senate and House results might impact things.* The impact of potential deportations on things like real estate, wages, and cost of living.* Israeli influence on US politics, and the occupied state of the US federal government.* His thoughts on what is going on in the Middle East and Ukraine.* Why the US won’t become a monarchy until the managerial state has been abolished.* Federalism and the importance of local government, specifically the sheriff.* His thoughts on eliminating the income tax for tariffs, and why you would need to deregulate in a big way to make tariffs work.* Book Recommendation: Race War In High School by Harold Saltzman (go listen to Pete’s full book reading on this one), and Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey (also recommended by Stormy Waters).Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Le Shrub, an insightful Substack author and Twitter personality, dives deep into the volatile world of commodities and markets. He discusses his unique investment strategy in oil and examines political implications on markets, particularly around potential Trump trades. Platinum emerges as a favorite inflation hedge, especially with Costco's play in the market. He also shares thoughts on coal stocks and spotlights tin as an underappreciated opportunity. Keep an eye on China, he suggests, as it may signal broader market shifts.

Yesterday I had Larry Johnson on the podcast to talk about all of the things going on around the world. He’s former CIA and a very sharp geopolitical analyst. We talked about what is going on in the Middle East with Israel and Iran, Ukraine, and how the US Presidential election might play out. You can find him at SONAR21, where he breaks down current events here in the US and abroad. Podcast Summary* We talk about Israel and the multiple fronts that have been in the news as of late. * The impact of propaganda in the US on older generations and their view of Israel, with the movie Exodus as one example.* How younger generations have a very different view of Israel in light of recent events.* How Israel started the conflict with Iran (attacking their consulate), and how Iran might retaliate if Israel targets oil, nuclear, or military targets. * His thoughts on whether or not Iran has nukes, and the recent potential underground nuclear test in Iran.* Will the US get more involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran?* The various problems facing Ukraine in their fight against Russia.* Drone warfare, and developments of new capabilities being developed and used in the Ukrainian theater.* Why he thinks Trump will win in the upcoming election. * The shifting media narrative machine and how SNL is a warning indicator for Kamala and her chances.* Immigration, gaslighting, and what might happen with immigration if Kamala is installed. * Book Recommendations: America’s Last War & Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov.* Bonus Movie Recommendation: Exodus.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had Mihail Stoyanov, the author of TheOldEconomy, on the podcast to talk about shipping, commodities, and his investment strategy. With his background in the shipping sector, he was able to give some valuable insights into the different subsectors worth keeping an eye on moving forward. We also talked about commodities, his options strategy, and other opportunities he finds attractive today.Podcast Summary* We talked about why he likes Cape Size vessels, and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM in particular.* His thoughts on the LNG sector, and what makes Dynagas $DLNG and their ICE class vessels attractive (their 6 vessel fleet includes 5 ICE class vessels).*A Quick Note: I looked this up after the recording, but Dynagas is a Master Limited Partnership, which requires a K-1 tax form here in the US. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.* Why he likes the shipbuilding sector and Seatrium in particular.* His bullish views on precious metals and the different ways he expresses that view for gold, silver, and PGMs.* Golar LNG $GLNG , their unique assets, and why he still likes the company.* His thoughts on the steel sector, Gerdau $GGB , and emerging markets like Brazil. * We also talked about his options strategy and what he looks for when taking a position.* Book Recommendation: Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke.DisclaimerWe talked about several companies that one (or both) of us might have investments in. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

We had a double dip on the podcast last week, so I’ll be posting this one instead of the Videos of the Week. I had Stormy Waters on the podcast, someone who is a must follow on Twitter. He is anonymous, but he has sold a couple businesses and is now focused on venture capital, private businesses, commodities, and public equities. It was one of those conversations where you forget you’re even recording. The YouTube hall monitors probably wouldn’t like some of the language, so fair warning on that, but this one will be audio only. This episode will have something for everyone, but I guarantee you will learn a thing or two. “Commodity prices have been artificially suppressed for the better part of seventy years. We’re talking about a much larger correction now aren’t we?We’re looking at a once in 150 year commodity supercycle.”Podcast Summary* The manipulation in oil markets and European sovereign debt markets, which are increasing in frequency and size.* Why he thinks oil is capped not because of the upcoming Presidential election, but because of the inflation that Europe would feel if oil goes higher.* The different types of dollars, and why he’s short the Euro and the Pound.* How the US lifted other countries out of poverty over the last several decades.* The situation in Israel and the rift between Netanyahu and Trump, and why Netanyahu will look to expand the war in Iran and/or Lebanon. This was recorded on 10/26, so that call looks pretty good in light of recent events in Lebanon. * Why he’s bullish on commodities across the board. We talked about some of his picks in uranium, natural gas, steel, and gold miners.* Why he thinks the France’s sovereign debt market will be the first domino in Europe to kick things off for a sovereign debt collapse.* The impact of the so-called Robber Barons (aka the great American men of that era), the pursuit of the good, true, and beautiful, and the noblesse oblige that is missing from today’s billionaire class.* The state of the bullion market, the LBMA, and JP Morgan’s influence on bullion.* How Eurodollars are used to suppress commodity prices bought from other countries, and then finished goods are sold to those same countries.* What led to the decline of the birth rate in developed nations (feminism, women’s liberation, and women in the work force), and how to fix it.* Book Recommendations: The House of Morgan by Ron Chernow; Imperium by Francis Parker Yockey; Men Among The Ruins by Julius Evola.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to ramble on some of my thoughts on three situations that I’m paying the most attention to right now, and why I have been adding to Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . I also talk about Calumet $CLMT and what I’m watching there between now and mid-October. I’ll be writing part 2 today, which will focus on the rest the portfolio, different commodities, and sectors I have focused on over the last year and change. I’ll also write a bit about my thoughts on recent trades, and it should be out tomorrow morning. Portfolio Weights

After talking with Vince Lanci VBL a while back, he said I should have Brynne Kelly on to talk about oil markets, and after the recent action in oil, I figured now was as good of a time as any. We talked about oil and natural gas, LNG, energy infrastructure, among other topics.Podcast Summary* Her view on owning energy equities, and why she prefers to get energy exposure directly through the commodities.* OPEC spare capacity as the overhang on oil markets for now.* Her thoughts on oil going negative in 2020, and how storage and infrastructure are a bottleneck for oil and natural gas.* How she uses the shape of the futures curve to gauge sentiment and positioning.* The regulatory risk for investing in energy infrastructure, and her thoughts on geopolitical risk.* Her time horizon with a typical trade.* LNG (liquefied natural gas), and why she’s skeptical that all of the planned projects will get built.* Why interstate pipelines won’t happen in this environment, and hydrocarbon infrastructure will not be brought online without a political change or significant crisis. * Book Recommendation: Short by Cortwright McMeel.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This week I had Judd Arnold of Lake Cornelia Research Management on the podcast. We discussed two companies I have been very interested in, Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . Judd walked through the numbers on both companies and explained what he thinks the next couple years look like for both companies. We also discussed some of the names in the offshore space, which has had a rough month along with oil.Podcast Summary* The regulatory situation in California and how it impacts Sable.* Why the recent settlement with Santa Barbara County took out a bunch of the risk. * Sable’s path to production and the potential for future capital returns.* The potential for carbon capture with Sable’s land holdings.* The situation for Navios and his recent memo on the company.* Why he’s bullish on Navios’ new builds, even though most shipping investors hate new builds. * We discuss the options chains and why Navios LEAPS might be interesting for risk tolerant investors.* We talked about China’s shipbuilding sector, The Jones Act, and why shipbuilding won’t come back to the US.* Why he prefers Tidewater $TDW to Seacor $SMHI . * His thoughts on Borr $BORR , Valaris $VAL and Transocean $RIG .* Book Recommendation: The Invisible Billionaire: Daniel Ludwig by Jerry Shields.DisclaimerI own shares of Sable, Navios Maritime Partners, Tidewater, Borr, and Seacor. I also own calls on Navios and Transocean, as well as Valaris warrants. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to get something out early this week after the bloodbath for oil and the energy equities. Price drives narrative, and we saw that last week for oil. I’m still stubbornly bullish, but that doesn’t mean oil won’t go lower short-term. I do think that the risk/reward from here is skewed, but that doesn’t make last week any less painful. Summary* I went through some of the things I found interesting on oil, from inventories, to DUCs (drilled, uncompleted wells), sentiment, and positioning. * I also talked about the potential for a dockworker strike, with a deadline of October 1st. * I talked briefly about the shifting of the Overton Window on things like immigration, and the discussion around WWII and Winston Churchill. * For paid subscribers, I explained my logic on recent portfolio moves, and why I’m very bullish on Sable Offshore $SOC and Navios Maritime Partners $NMM . Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

I was able to get Rudy Havenstein on the podcast last week for a great conversation. We talked about his investing strategy, real estate, inflation, and much more. If you don’t already follow him on Twitter, he’s one of the most entertaining accounts to follow. I don’t see volatility as risk. I see risk as permanent loss of capital.Podcast Summary* His investing strategy, which is focused on the long term and looking for stuff that is out of favor. He’s heavy in energy but also has some stuff he has been hanging onto for three decades.* His thoughts on real estate and chance that younger generations get a buying opportunity in the next couple years.* Competition from institutions in the single family housing market.* Private equity hollowing out different industries.* We spent some time bagging on Paul Krugman and how the Fed and ZIRP contributed to wealth inequality and the generation divide, as well as the some of the division we see in the country today.* American culture and the current state of affairs overseas.* Book Recommendation: Deterring Democracy by Noam ChomskyKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe