Kontrarian Korner

On Tuesday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to cover about recent events, precious metals, energy, and geopolitics. We talked about the return of mercantilism, mineral wars, other big picture topics, and how they feed into financial markets and commodities. You should all follow his Substack below for his updates on precious metals, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The trend of deglobalization, and why America needs to become more self-sufficient in manufacturing. * Why platinum has been on the move recently, and why it will take some time to digest the rally over the last couple months. * Chinese demand for platinum, the ties to palladium, and the fundamental changes in the market for platinum.* A couple bold proclamations about a big move coming in silver.* Why gold will drag other commodities higher in coming years.* Big banks favoring gold and copper over silver.* The geopolitical crosscurrents in oil, and the recent media frenzy on the Strait of Hormuz.* Why they wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz unless Israel targeted Kharg Island.* The ties between bitcoin and the Treasury market, and the Machiavellian system being built to sell treasuries. * Book Recommendation: Street Smarts by Linda Raschke.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOver the weekend I had several interesting conversations with investors about Sable’s hearing on Friday this week, so I wanted to share some of those thoughts briefly. I also talked about precious metals, including platinum. Offshore oil services and coal stocks have also been moving lately, so I weighed in on those as well. Both sectors are still very cheap today.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is Part 2 of my discussion on Monday with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. This one covers some of the differences between men and women, how to fix the so-called gender divide, and some of the changes that might be on the horizon in coming years. We also got into the future for the US, why the best years could be ahead of us, and how a tax revolt could be a (more) peaceful revolution. If you haven’t had the chance to watch Part 1, I would go watch that first. Podcast Summary* The differences between men and women, and how society has changed the roles of each over the last 200 years. * The health impacts of birth control on both men and women. * Why the birth control pill should be illegal, and why it would fix several problems quickly.* The massive gap between what is right and what is legal.* How the agenda from the media impacts men and women.* Why the relationship between men and women could be fixed quickly after some changes.* Why the best years for the US could be ahead of us, after a messy decade to come. * How a tax revolt could play out, and why it could be the most peaceful path from here. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Monday, I recorded my first in-person podcast with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. E.M. was kind enough to host, and it was a long and fascinating conversation. Clay Martin is a former Recon Marine and Green Beret, and he has also become a prolific author over the last several years. You can find his books on Amazon, and he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We decided to break the podcast into two parts, so Part 2 will be up tomorrow morning. In Part 1, we covered a bunch of topics, from the recent Epstein circus to all of the other rabbit holes we have been down over the last several years. In Part 2, we get around to solving the rest of the world’s problems. Podcast Summary* The Epstein files circus, and blackmail being one time use. * The health rabbit hole, covering the jab, to fluoride in the water, genetically modified food, seed oils, and everything in between.* The dying mainstream media, the propaganda of the regime, and how Substack and social media will be the new battleground for the information war.* Artificial intelligence (language learning models), some of the flaws that are built into the system. * The state of the economy and financial markets, and how demographics and economics drive things. * The knowledge transfer from the Boomer generation. * Student loans as the largest asset of the government and not being able to default on student debt. * Potential changes in government, and if (when) the US will get a Caesar figure. * The state of military technology and how things develop on that front. * Building businesses outside of the financial market liquidity bubble, and what probably happens to the banking system and financial markets over the next decade.* The demographic state of the US, immigration, and how NGOs and other groups fuel the tension on social media.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Friday I had John Polomny back on the podcast, and this time we got into some of the individual names he likes in several different sectors. We talked about oil, uranium, and other commodities, but we also got into several other things that fly under the radar in other markets around the world. At the end of the podcast, I was able to get John going on the state of the world as far as geopolitics and current events. It was fun to go back and forth with him, because the political section of his weekly updates are my favorite part. You can find John on Substack below, and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The lousy sentiment in oil, and where he is positioned for what he sees coming over the next several years. * We talked a bit about some of the Canadian energy names and their long lived assets, and why he thinks the Canadian energy sector will continue to consolidate. * Opportunities in offshore oil services outside of the main offshore drillers.* Going past peak ESG, the bottlenecks in uranium, a couple different ideas he’s looking at in that sector, and why that sector is ripe for consolidation as well.* The role of gold in the financial end game and a couple mining companies he likes.* Why he thinks it’s an interesting time to start looking at some of the juniors, as well as some opportunities in the royalty sector.* Why silver, platinum, and palladium are going to play catch up to gold.* The financialized economy, the underinvestment in the commodities sector, and his view on gold to oil.* His thoughts on coal, copper, and tin.* Why he’s starting to look into agricultural and fertilizer stocks. * Other places he sees value, like South America, European banks and other obscure ideas in Europe, and under the radar opportunities in China and Hong Kong.* We also went back and forth at the end on geopolitics, US politics, and the state of the world, and why he expects more chaos and volatility around the world over the next several years.* Note: we recorded on Friday, before the US hit three Iranian nuclear sites yesterday. * Book Recommendation: Shareholder Yield by Meb Faber.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame back on the podcast, and we covered a bunch of different topics. We hit on everything from current events and geopolitics, estrogen based warfare, where he sees the US headed over the next several years and longer term, and the hyper-financialized economies of the West. I will be having him back on soon to discuss what he is working on in the health and medicine area, and why it is extremely important for people to understand some of the things that have happened with food and medicine over the last 80 years. You can find him on Twitter (after a return from a hiatus), or on his Substack below.Podcast Summary* Current events across the world, including what is going on in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and here in the US. * Why he sees recent events as part of one big color revolution, and his view on estrogen based warfare.* How the events in Israel and Iran might play out, and why Iran is stronger than many in the West think.* Why the US empire is pulling back due to financial constraints.* The LA riots, immigration, and the prospect for more civil unrest.* The coming Constitutional crisis, the power of judges, and why the local level is extremely important moving forward.* What he sees as the 2026 midterm elections approach.* How the coming generational change might impact the path of the US.* How the events in 2020 and lockdowns were a dividing line for recent events.* Why he thinks America’s best years are still ahead if we can get through the bumpy period he sees coming over the next decade.* The potential for the US to end up in a more hierarchical form of government like a Constitutional monarchy.* His view on Europe and the path forward there.* How technology and warfare has changed, but some important aspects have stayed the same.* What he sees coming for the hyper-financialization for economies across the West.* Why the West has a collateral problem, and how the US could create a sovereign wealth fund* Book Recommendation: The Secret History of Mongol Queens by Jack Weatherford.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Trader Ferg on the podcast again to talk about his big picture view of financial markets. We got into his favorite commodities, his high level thoughts on which subsectors are the most attractive, and his view of the big picture from 30,000 feet. It was a great conversation, and if you aren’t already familiar with his work on Substack, you should check it out below.Podcast Summary* Why he has the most conviction on oil long-term, some of the information sources he follows, and what subsectors he favors.* His view on the important question for energy investors, which is “Can the Permian Basin ramp production again, and if it can, how much production can they bring online?”* Platinum group metals, including rhodium, and Anglo selling the bottom again by spinning out Valterra.* Gold to oil, and why this time might be different if gold is used to recapitalize the system.* What he sees in the coal sector, the royalty regime in Australia, and why he’s partial to met coal names in the US.* Uranium and the potential for a short squeeze.* We went into a couple other metals, and he laid out why he is very bullish on tin and not all that excited about copper.* Shipping and shipyards, and why you have to be careful in shipyards with China’s dominant position in shipbuilding.* Debt, deficits, TLT, and why all roads lead to inflation.* Why he isn’t as bullish on natural gas as other commodities.* Battling the psychological ups and downs in markets and the difficulty of having a long-term view with the short-termism that dominates financial markets today.* Book Recommendations: House of Huawei by Eva Dou & Meditations by Marcus AureliusKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comBefore I get into the post today, I wanted to give everyone a heads up that I will be on the road for a couple weeks starting next week. I’ll be in the Portland area for a couple days starting next Sunday (June 22-25), then in Minneapolis for the back half of next week (June 26-29), and then in Seattle until the 4th of July. If anyone wants to meet up in the next couple weeks and it happens to work with your schedule, feel free to send me a DM.Over the last couple weeks, I have spent a lot of time on the phone trying to get a feel for how Sable Offshore $SOC is going to proceed from here. In the video, I laid out how the next couple months could play out regarding the hearing on July 18, OSFM sign off, and what happens if the company has to appeal to a higher court. I explained the logic behind a recent trade I made, and why I think this thing gets resolved in the next couple months. I also talked about recent geopolitical events between Iran and Israel, what might happen with oil, and how it might impact China specifically.DisclaimerI own shares and calls on Sable Offshore. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Tuesday I had PauloMacro back on the podcast, and we covered everything from oil and precious metals, to geopolitics, market structure, bonds, and the risks he sees in different corners of the market. I don’t always listen to my own podcasts a second time, but I had to go back for seconds yesterday. Listeners will definitely get a lot to think about from this one, whether you are interested in oil, the metals, or a big picture view of financial markets. For anyone that isn’t familiar with Paulo, I have included a link to his Substack below.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Wednesday, I had Dave Collum back on the podcast. As always, it was an entertaining and wide ranging conversation. It’s worth a listen if you have the time this weekend. We talked the overvaluation in financial markets, some of the non-fundamental drivers, commodities, and private equity. We also covered different problems facing society, from changes coming for the university system, demographics, and more. We didn’t even have time to dive into some of the rabbit holes he has been going down lately, so I will definitely be having him back on the podcast sooner rather than later. You can find Dave on Twitter, and I’m already looking forward to his 2025 Year In Review.Podcast Summary* His view on financial markets, valuations, and other distortions in the financial system.* He mentioned the increasing volume and frequency about the Fourth Turning.* Gold, silver, platinum and his view on the precious metals, and which ones are the most attractive right now.* Entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and some of the demographic changes happening now. * Feminism, changes coming for the university system, and the connection between private equity and the endowment problem.* The toxic sludge in private equity and private equity and how that might manifest itself in coming years.* We talked about energy and went back and forth on the different arguments on the Permian rolling over, and different subsectors in energy that look interesting today.* Uranium, Coal, and other opportunities in the commodities space that look appealing.* Book Recommendation: The True Believer by Eric Hoffer.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe