Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Doug Terreson on the podcast to talk about energy as well as his book, Can’t Deny It. It was a great conversation on what has happened in the energy industry over the last 30 years, but we also discussed what he sees coming over the next several years for the sector. Doug had a long career on Wall Street as a renowned oil analyst at Morgan Stanley and Evercore, and is well known for several big calls over the last thirty years. He’s had a hard time retiring and is now on the boards of Phillips 66 $PSX , Third Gear Energy Fund, and Mississippi State University. There are some parallels today to where things were when Doug was making these calls, but if you’re interested in the recent history of the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find Can’t Deny It on Amazon, but you can also find Doug on his website or on Linkedin. Podcast Summary* His background and his career on Wall Street as an oil analyst, and why his best calls were not consensus at the time. * We talk about the book and the stories and setups behind his big calls.* “The Era of the Super Major”, and the consolidation of the industry that followed, which was the biggest restructuring of the industry since the breakup of Standard Oil.* “The Golden Age of Refining”, and what he was seeing with the refining sector in 2003 when he made the call. * His call on oil in 2008, and why he turned bullish on the broad energy sector in November 2020. * The shift in focus from production growth to capital allocation after the value destruction in the shale boom in the 2010s. * His thoughts on the Permian, OPEC, continued consolidation, coal, and the overall state of the energy market today.* Why he likes natural gas and refined products as two subsectors of the energy space over the next several years. * The focus on data centers and what it means for some of the energy companies moving forward. * Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, The Quest by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Stern Stewart.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had John Carter on the podcast to discuss Canadian politics, their upcoming election for Prime Minister, and his thoughts on the long-term future of Canada. We talked about some of the issues plaguing Canada today, and how he sees things playing out. It was also an excuse to talk with him about one of the most interesting Substack posts I have seen in the last year on Academia (linked below). We covered the issues that are already leading to problems, and talked about potential ways to change how universities fund themselves. You can find him below on Substack, but he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. Podcast Summary* The situation with the election for the Canadian Prime Minister later this year between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.* His thoughts on Trudeau’s disastrous reign as Prime Minister. * Maxime Bernier, and the People’s Party of Canada. * The Laurentian Elite’s influence on Canadian politics. * The state of Canadian media. * Canadian patriotism being defined by the fact that Canadians aren’t American, and the current wave of anti-American sentiment in Canada. * Alberta as a resource colony for the Eastern part of Canada. * Canada as an unstable coalition of provinces, and the long-term odds that the country breaks up.* The state of Academia, and the gap between men and women in universities. * Why changes in Academia will be faster than expected to the financial state of the average university, declining enrollment, and funding cuts. * Potential fixes for the academic system regarding student debt and endowments. * Book Recommendation: Caesar: Life of a Colossus by Adrian Goldsworthy.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I was able to get Chris MacIntosh on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. We talked about the different cycles that are all converging, the geopolitical situation in Europe, and opportunities in different commodities and South America. He’s very sharp on a bunch of different topics, from history to financial markets and everything in between. If you want to find his website or his Twitter, I have included links below. Chris’ TwitterCapitalist ExploitsPodcast Summary* The current geopolitical situation and the cyclical nature of history.* How different cycles are all lining up right now, from the debt cycle, the monetary cycle, the commodities cycle, and the 250 year revolutionary cycle.* The capital rotation on the horizon, and why gold is typically the first mover on that front.* How the economics in Europe are driving their decision making, why he thinks we will see capital flight out of Europe.* Capital controls, and how they are masked as regulatory controls in Europe. * Why he thinks we could be headed for stagflation and why he thinks this commodities cycle will be driven by supply constraints instead of booming demand.* Energy is typically the best performing asset in stagflationary cycles.* Why they are fairly heavy in the energy sector, which has some of the cheapest assets on the planet, particularly in the offshore oil services space. * How shipbuilders are another constraint worth watching.* The potential supply squeeze setting up in coal, and how coal has been starved of capital for years. * Why he is bullish on South America, and very bullish on Argentina in particular.* Avoiding bonds because of where we are in the cycle.* The formation of geopolitical blocks around the world.* Why Venezuela as the wild card in South America. * Trump’s negotiating style, and why Canada is in a weak position.* Book Recommendation: 180 Degrees: Unlearn The Lies You've Been Taught To Believe by Feargus O’Connor Greenwood.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Veles from RogueNews on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. I listened to the whole thing a second time when I was editing it last night, and I am definitely looking forward to another conversation with Veles in the future. We talked about the realignment of the global economic and political system, why gold is flowing into the US again (just like it was before WWII), and some of the important technological trends to watch, from micro nuclear reactors to more efficient chips for artificial intelligence. You can find Veles on RogueNews on Rumble and YouTube.Podcast Summary* Zelensky’s disaster in the White House on Friday, and how he is just a puppet for other people behind the scenes.* The competing factions of power around the world, the future of the EU, and why certain factions in Europe need the war in Ukraine.* He lays out how a massive amount of money is being ripped out of the US federal government budget right now, and the connection to the urgent selling of real estate in the DC area.* The importance of gold, and why a large amount of physical gold was moved out of Europe into the US before WWII. * He lays out the reasons that gold is flowing into the US again today, and why the US is in the driver’s seat with our economy and political system, as the world starts to realign the economic and political system towards a multipolar world. * Salted gold reserves in China, and why that set off alarms in other countries. * The gold that is still on ships at the bottom of the ocean, and the disputes between different countries over it. * What he sees for the US power grid, and why a decentralized grid is an advantage for the US. * Why artificial intelligence is overhyped, and how power demand at the chip level could be reduced by 90-95% at the chip level by replacing floating point multiplication with integer addition. * The potential benefits of micro nuclear reactors and the downstream effects that could have on the US grid, and how micro nuclear reactors could benefit Europe.* Physical versus digital currency, and why he thinks we will eventually see a fully digital dollar.* Book Recommendations: The Most Dangerous Book In The World: 9/11 As Mass Ritual by S.K. Bain & Lucifer’s Banker by Brad Birkenfeld.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I was able to have John Polomny back on the podcast for another great conversation. We looked at some of the commodities sectors that both of us find interesting, and some of the opportunities in the market today. We also talked about the current geopolitical landscape and American culture. You can find his Substack below, but he is also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Energy Return On Energy Invested, and how human society has never gone backwards as far as energy density.* Uranium, and the bombed out sentiment across the sector. * The opportunities in the oil & gas sector, including offshore oil services and Canadian oil sands.* Why he likes Glencore for his exposure to the coal sector. * His thoughts on the precious metals miners, the agricultural sector, and shipping. * The geopolitical landscape, from Trump and the Monroe Doctrine, to the return of realpolitik. * Immigration, the changing culture of the US, and what it means to be an American.* Book Recommendation: Santa Monica Partners Letters to Partners 1982-2021: 40 Years of Pink Sheet Investing by Lawrence Goldstein and Joseph Raymond.* He also recommended the Horizon Kinetics quarterly updates, which are definitely a must read. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comAfter I recorded recently with Vince Lanci for a podcast on gold and the LBMA, we got to chatting about oil and I told him about Sable Offshore $SOC (I know that is probably shocking to some of you). He invited me to one of his Sunday conversations with some of his subscribers to discuss the situation, and where things stand today. If you guys need a fix on Sable or want to hear some of Vince’s questions, and my thoughts on Sable and oil in general, including some talk on the geopolitical side, feel free to watch. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Last week I had Matt Warder back on the podcast to give us an update on the coal sector. We talked about why it might be tough sledding in 2025 for coal stocks, the different companies in the US and Australia, and more. You can find Matt on Twitter and on Substack below. He is must follow for any investor interested in the coal sector.Podcast Summary* His broad outlook for thermal and metallurgical coal, the impact of LNG on thermal, and why he thinks 2025 is going to be the cycle trough for met coal.* The impact of potential tariffs on the coal sector.* His outlook for China, and the uncertainty on how a potential trade war could play out. * His view on some of the stocks in the sector, and the potential for further M&A.* We also looked briefly at some of the Australian stocks in the coal sector.* The bankruptcies of smaller players here in the US and what might happen to Corsa Coal after they filed for bankruptcy.* Where he’s looking for opportunities outside of the coal sector.* The potential for a coal powered data center in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming.* Book Recommendation: Buried Treasure by Otto Scott.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss what has been going on recently in the Gold market. We discussed what is going with the LBMA, COMEX, and the gold flowing into the United States. We also briefly covered his thoughts on silver, platinum, and oil. It was a fun conversation and should help listeners get a handle on what is going on with gold right now. You should all follow his Substack for his precious metals updates, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), COMEX, and the EFP (the exchange of futures for physical), and why gold is moving to the US.* Why the LBMA is in the process of slowly dying. * How tariffs would impact precious metals, and why the likelihood of tariffs on metals is extremely low (but not zero).* The so-called conspiracy theories around the LBMA.* The potential structure of a sovereign wealth fund. * Why he’s bullish on silver longer term, and why he thinks gold and silver might be decoupling. * Why platinum won’t be far behind if silver starts to run.* What he is watching with oil, and how it interacts with Trump’s geopolitical policy and tariffs.* Book Recommendation: The Prize by Daniel YerginKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mike Farris come back on the podcast to discuss a wide variety of topics, from geopolitics, Trump 2.0, to the health of America, and the pros and cons of podcasting and content creation. He let me rant a bit a bit on some of the things going on today, but it was a fun conversation. You can find him on Twitter, YouTube, and all of the main podcast apps. Podcast Summary* His skepticism on the recent news around USAID, DOGE, and Elon Musk.* The Cabinet confirmations and what their impact might look like.* The Middle East, Israel, Ukraine, and the likelihood that Trump is able to resolve things.* Why Turkey is the wildcard in the Middle East. * The pace that things are moving and how it is hard to stay up to date.* Potential shifts in the Overton Window and why it might accelerate.* Lawfare and why he is pessimistic on the way things are going.* I rant on the state of food and health in America, and how it has deteriorated over the last several decades.* Ozempic side effects.* The state of corporate America and DEI.* The pros and cons of podcasting and content creation.* Book Recommendation: Gold Warriors by Sterling Seagrave.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I was able to talk with Tommy Deepwater, who has been following offshore oil services for more than a decade, with a focus on deepwater. We talked about some of the recent news from the sector, the trend of consolidation and M&A, and where the offshore cycle sits today. His Twitter is a must follow for his weekly updates on the sector. It was a great follow up to my podcast series on oil, and if you’re interested in offshore oilfield services, specifically deepwater, you will enjoy it.Podcast Summary* Noble $NE retiring a couple drillships, and why parts of the stacked fleet will continue to be retired.* Why higher spec stacked drillships are more likely to be reactivated.* Why he thinks Transocean $RIG has the highest quality active fleet.* The Transocean & Seadrill $SDRL M&A rumors, and future consolidation of the sector.* How the offshore bull cycle has been delayed, the picture for 2025/2026, and where day rates have to go to see new builds. * His thoughts on jackups, Borr Drilling $BORR , and their asset quality.* The OSV market, Tidewater $TDW , and how OSVs will benefit from increased activity in the deepwater sector. * Why he finds FPSOs (Floating Production Storage Offloading units) interesting.* Namibia, Colombia, and Suriname as potential geographies for new long-term drillship demand. * Book Recommendation: Chip War by Chris Miller.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe