Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss everything going on precious metals and his outlook for the sector in 2026. We talked about the recent move in silver, some of the current events, and why he’s still bullish. We also talked about gold leading the whole commodities complex, platinum flying under the radar, but breaking out to its highest level since 2011, and everything else that he is watching as 2025 draws to a close. You can find Vince’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The physical shortage of silver in London, how they are caught in a rolling squeeze, and the backwardated market for physical silver.* Silver as a critical mineral, China restricting silver exports, and other shifts in the supply chain for silver.* Other recent events with silver, including the Black Friday blackout and margin raises.* Why he is sustainably bullish on silver for the next several years, his expectations for triple digit silver in that timeframe, and how silver becomes more precious as gold goes higher in price.* How the physical market for silver is starting to assert dominance over the paper market.* The tug of war between silver as an industrial metal vs. precious metal, and the tug of war between industrial demand for silver and investment demand.* Increased investment demand for gold and silver miners over the next 12 months, and why we could see the miners catch up when gold and silver prices consolidate.* The valuation gap between streamers and royalty plays in precious metals vs. the miners.* Why he wants to look at gold miners that are looking to add copper exposure.* His outlook for gold in 2026, why we could see a 10-20% selloff, and why he expects gold to continue to drag the commodities complex higher.* Platinum and palladium as a pair, why platinum still flying under the radar, and how platinum could be ripe for a short squeeze and/or a sustained rally.* Why silver and other commodities are going to go up relative to gold, and why commodities are going to trade at their fundamental natural ratios relative to gold in coming years.* How he looks at ratio charts of different assets, comparing the S&P to gold, silver, and miners. * Gold vs. silver vs. copper, and other ratios he looks at as a signpost to compare where different assets are, and how they can signal a regime change.* The high level view on copper, and why he sees a potential catalyst for a spike in the copper price. * Why oil is going to be the last part of the commodities complex to wake up, and why he’s paying attention to vertically integrated oil producers looking ahead to 2026.* The Fed becoming an arm of the Treasury.* Other things that he’s paying attention to for 2026, including inflation, rates, yield curve control and QE, as well as other asset classes.* Book Recommendations: Absolute Batman & The Tower Of Basel by Adam LeBor.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

A fascinating dive into market trends unfolds as experts discuss the implications of the recent Fed meeting. They highlight a bullish outlook for small caps and express skepticism towards AI in the tech sector. Precious metals, particularly silver, are poised for a breakout, with copper expected to thrive as China revives. The strategic importance of bellwethers like Newmont for gold and Exxon for oil & gas is analyzed. The conversation wraps up with insights on navigating inflation risks as we approach 2026.

Ross Jennings, an investor and large shareholder in Millennial Potash, shares insights from his extensive background in commodities. He discusses the undervaluation of Millennial and the expected resolution of port logistics by 2026. Jennings highlights the significant economies of scale from the Banio project and its structural advantages in shipping to Brazil. He also covers the importance of CAPEX and OPEX figures, potential future valuations, and the geopolitical landscape in Gabon, all while encouraging investors to focus on long-term growth drivers.

The podcast dives into the booming world of commodities, highlighting silver's all-time highs and capital rotation trends. There’s an intriguing look at South America as a prime destination for commodity investments. Listeners learn about under-the-radar metals like lithium and tin, with insider buying sparking interest. The discussion also touches on potential Fed changes that could affect interest rates, rounding out a compelling exploration of market trends and future opportunities.

Yesterday I had Melody Wright on the podcast to talk about all things real estate. We got into the changing demographic trends, institutional and foreign ownership of real estate, and the different narratives around equities, AI spending, and real estate. We also talked about the privatization of Fannie Mae and homebuilder sector, among other things. For anyone interested in real estate, Melody is a must follow, and you can find her Substack below, or on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The problems with the 50 year mortgage idea.* Demographic trends that could have a huge impact on residential real estate, from generational turnover to immigration and potential remigration.* The crosscurrents between property taxes, insurance costs, and affordability.* Investor ownership and foreign ownership of residential real estate, and the problems with government interfering with the real estate market by subsidizing demand.* The generational divide topic when it comes to real estate, and how it gets amplified by social media.* Why she doesn’t think Fannie Mae will be privatized, and the issues from the real estate market that could have an impact.* The issues with the homebuilders and the seller concessions they have been making to move inventory.* Her view on equities, the AI spending bubble, and how it is connected to real estate.* The narratives changing on real estate, AI, equities, and how markets have started to price in narrative changes faster.* Why she thinks we will return to historical norms for real estate prices relative to median income, and the price declines that have to happen to bring that back inline. * How some of the institutions are net sellers of residential real estate.* Rental prices, the overbuilding of multifamily apartments, and concessions on rent.* Where money could flow over the next couple years.* Her thoughts on crypto, and the issues there.* Book Recommendations: The Price Of Time by Ed Chancellor, Bubble In The Sun by Christopher Knowlton & The Swamp Peddlers by Jason Vuic. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had first time guest Scott Osheroff on the podcast. He runs Yurta Capital and is focused on overlooked opportunities in frontier markets and commodities. We talked about his experience traveling and investing all over the world, and why he thinks we will see a capital rotation to markets outside of the US. We also bounced around different commodities sectors, and which ones he finds appealing today. You can find him on Twitter and on Telegram. Podcast Summary* His experience in Asia, Eastern Europe, and looking at opportunities in overlooked areas of the market.* Why we in the early stages of a multi-year reallocation to the rest of the world, and why it doesn’t take much money to move markets outside of the US.* Getting more conservative and the potential for a market correction where correlations go to one.* The torque available in offshore oil services, and the outlook for the next several years.* Precious metals, and how investors all seem to focus on the same handful of ideas.* Avoiding the herd mentality when it comes to commodities.* Iron ore, coal, natural gas, and why the traditional hydrocarbons companies are near the top of his list right now.* The multi-speed global economy, and how different major economies and markets have different policies.* Chemicals, and why he’s paying attention to Chinese policy for that sector.* Agricultural companies, the importance of cheap natural gas for the sector, and why he thinks the gap between US natural gas prices and European prices will converge.* Why he thinks the dollar is in the early stages of a secular decline, and the potential for capital rotation.* Book Recommendations: Burmese Days by George Orwell, How Asia Works by Joe Studwell & Asian Godfathers by Joe Studwell.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Doug Casey on the podcast, and we got into a bunch of different topics across the commodities space and financial markets. We talked about the bubble forming in the tech sector with the AI capex boom, the future of the US, and other things to keep an eye on for the next several years. You can find Doug at The International Man, The Crisis Investing Substack, and the YouTube channel, Doug Casey’s Take. You can also find the new book that he released recently with Matt and Maxim Smith, The Preparation, which provides an alternative experience to college. It’s a book I wish I had when I was in high school. Podcast Summary* The last bull market for gold as it becomes a central part of the financial system again.* Silver and platinum as industrial metals, and why he’s bullish on those metals as well.* The bull case for energy, including uranium and coal.* The future of the US and the breakdown of our political system. * The AI capex boom, how it could change society, and how a lot of the technological developments are net negatives on society. * The different geopolitical brushfires around the world, from the Middle East, to Eastern Europe, Venezuela, and China. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI led off with a quick rant on Sable and the equity raise last week and the 10-Q, but I got into a couple things that I covered in my thread the other day. After that I got into commodities, money rotating into certain sectors, and a couple trades I’m looking at. Energy, OIH & SLB

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comAfter the recent talk of 50 year mortgages over the weekend, I wanted to share my thoughts on the topic and rant a little bit. I touched on a couple things there, and why it’s a bad idea that would only make the affordability issue worse in the long run. It sounds like the government shutdown might be coming to an end here soon, and there has also been talk of a so-called tariff dividend of $2,000. We will see if anything comes of it, but that would just be adding fuel to the inflationary fire. I also spent some time looking at several individual names, and where I might be looking at trades on those.

Yesterday Robert from Infranomics joined me on the podcast to talk about interest rates, financial plumbing, issues facing the US, and how to fix them. We got into the financialization of the economy, distortions in financial markets, and how inflation has eaten away at real wages and purchasing power. You can find Robert on Twitter and on YouTube, and for anyone who wants to dig into financial plumbing, he’s a must follow.Podcast Summary* SOFR spreads, liquidity issues, and what is going on in the repo markets. * His view on interest rates, how the US stacks up with Europe, and why he thinks there will be a debt crisis in France and the UK.* Wealth inequality being worse than it was in the Gilded Age, and the hyperfinancialization of the US economy.* Why he expects higher levels of inflation over the next decade, and why the dollar will be weak against gold and other currencies moving forward. * Wages, Social Security and Medicare, and Home Equity as a percent of GDP.* Hourly wages in gold terms, the loss of purchasing power over the last couple decades, and the increase in deaths of despair. * Potential fixes for the situation the US is in, including stricter immigration policy (legal and illegal), coordinating fiscal and monetary policy to compete with China, reindustrializing the economy, and ending the system that has prioritized capital over labor for the last 50 years. * Book Recommendation: Ages of Discord by Peter Turchin.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe