Kontrarian Korner #80 - Melody Wright

Yesterday I had Melody Wright on the podcast to talk about all things real estate. We got into the changing demographic trends, institutional and foreign ownership of real estate, and the different narratives around equities, AI spending, and real estate. We also talked about the privatization of Fannie Mae and homebuilder sector, among other things. For anyone interested in real estate, Melody is a must follow, and you can find her Substack below, or on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The problems with the 50 year mortgage idea.

* Demographic trends that could have a huge impact on residential real estate, from generational turnover to immigration and potential remigration.

* The crosscurrents between property taxes, insurance costs, and affordability.

* Investor ownership and foreign ownership of residential real estate, and the problems with government interfering with the real estate market by subsidizing demand.

* The generational divide topic when it comes to real estate, and how it gets amplified by social media.

* Why she doesn’t think Fannie Mae will be privatized, and the issues from the real estate market that could have an impact.

* The issues with the homebuilders and the seller concessions they have been making to move inventory.

* Her view on equities, the AI spending bubble, and how it is connected to real estate.

* The narratives changing on real estate, AI, equities, and how markets have started to price in narrative changes faster.

* Why she thinks we will return to historical norms for real estate prices relative to median income, and the price declines that have to happen to bring that back inline.

* How some of the institutions are net sellers of residential real estate.

* Rental prices, the overbuilding of multifamily apartments, and concessions on rent.

* Where money could flow over the next couple years.

* Her thoughts on crypto, and the issues there.

* Book Recommendations: The Price Of Time by Ed Chancellor, Bubble In The Sun by Christopher Knowlton & The Swamp Peddlers by Jason Vuic.

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