Kontrarian Korner

Join independent investor John Polomny, known for his contrarian strategies and insights on global macroeconomics. He shares his thoughts on the overvaluation of U.S. markets and the potential of precious metals. Polomny highlights bullish trends in energy, especially offshore oil services, while cautioning against the overpriced residential real estate market. He explores undervalued international opportunities and discusses the political shifts that could impact economies. A thought-provoking conversation on navigating current and future trends!

Yesterday I had Rob Connors from The Crude Chronicles on the podcast. If you’re interested in the long term picture for the energy sector, his work is worth checking out below. We got into a bunch of different topics, from the peaking productivity rates in the US, the importance of development costs, and where he sees the floor for oil. One of the other big picture topics that is starting to get more attention is the capex boom in the tech sector, and he compares it to oil and gas capex. For anyone interested in energy, you might learn a thing or two from this podcast. You can also find Rob on Twitter. Podcast Summary* His thoughts on OPEC, why today doesn’t feel like a price war, and why he thinks the floor for oil is in the high 50s to low 60s.* Why development costs are a good predictor of oil prices over the long run.* Why the geology is the most important driver of costs versus new factors like steel tariffs.* Peaking well productivity rates in the US and why we are on the last leg for technology advancements and efficiency gains.* The capex boom for the tech companies on AI spending, and capex for the energy sector.* His view on natural gas over the next several years, and why we aren’t seeing a rise in development costs for natural gas.* Why he likes the refiners, and which energy subsectors perform best in different parts of the cycle.* Factors he is watching to see if we are heading into a recession.* Book Recommendations: Apple In China by Patrick McGee, Together We Roared by Steve Williams & Lords Of Finance by Liaquat Ahmed & Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Before I spent all of the last two days on the phone, I had Robert Smallbone of The Contrarian Capitalist Substack on the podcast. We talked about his view on what is going on in Europe and the U.K., why he left England and the importance of having a Plan B, and what he sees for commodities and broader financial markets in the future. You should check out his Substack below.Podcast Summary* European politics, the mysterious deaths of several AFD politicians, and the current state of the UK.* The financial state of European governments and European bonds.* His view on precious metals and why they are simplest way to protect wealth over the next several years. * Why he is partial to silver over gold currently.* What he thinks about energy, how devaluation will play a role for commodities, and his view on oil, natural gas, and uranium.* Where he sees equity markets heading over the next several years.* Why there will be a huge opportunity in bonds in the distant future, and why he views them as certificates of confiscation for now. * The importance of having a Plan B and why he left Europe.* Book Recommendation: The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, shares his insights on macroeconomics and finance. He discusses the Fourth Turning's implications for U.S. politics and culture amidst rising wealth inequality. Gromen explores the dynamics of Bitcoin and gold, emphasizing gold's resurgence as a reserve asset due to geopolitical tensions. He analyzes the relationship between oil, gold, and U.S. manufacturing, while also addressing the potential consequences of AI investment on employment and economic structures. A thought-provoking conversation on future financial trends!

Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast. We got into a bunch of different topics, from immigration to the Civil Rights Act and the return of family dynasties. We also talked about one of my favorite long term political topics, which is the change in our form of government to something closer to a monarchy. It was a very interesting conversation, and for anyone interested the long term future of the US and our government, and the potential for a Caesar figure, you will enjoy this one. You can find Will on Twitter, as well as on The American Tribune Substack.Podcast Summary* His big picture view on immigration, and why removing welfare programs and taxing remittances would likely lead to more self-deportations.* The importance of shifting the Overton Window on immigration and other problems in the US that are fixable.* The Generational Divide, and the split between the Right and the Left across the different generations.* The 2028 and why the modern Left can’t backtrack on the insanity of the last decade.* Why land prices and asset prices are unlikely to come down in the US.* Sovereign wealth fund, inheritance taxes, and the different nuances of each.* A return of family dynasties across the US. * Civil Rights Act, freedom of association, and the importance of local politics.* Why an aristocracy is likely to develop, and the differences between a monarchy and a Caesar figure coming to power.* Space exploration as a potential new frontier.* Book Recommendation: Gotham by Edwin G. Burrows & Mike Wallace.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI originally had a podcast guest lined up for yesterday, but work roped him in, so he will be coming on next week. There wasn’t anything groundbreaking from Sable Offshore’s $SOC 10-Q, but there were a couple things worth mentioning in there. I also went into a couple other things with oil, and a couple pieces on broader markets that I found interesting.Podcast Summary* Thoughts on the 10-Q (nothing earth shattering), mainly that they have enough cash to get things started up without further dilution.* Why I’m not worried about the 10 day waiting period that comes after OSFM signoff, and some of the nuances there.* Short interest ticking up at the end of July.* ZeroHedge: How Oil Production Might Help California Meet Its Environmental Goals* Ranting on the recent IEA forecast.* A quick update on Cenovus’ bid for MEG Energy.* Jorge Arjona’s Thread on Oil (a good Twitter account to follow).* Thoughts on what assumptions are baked into market valuations* AI and the massive capex spend, and why I don’t think it will be that much different from previous spending booms.* Tariffs and the restructuring of the economy, and why economists might need to revisit some of their assumptions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Monday I went on The Contrarian Capitalist podcast to talk markets, current events, and politics. We spent some time on oil, platinum, my views on Europe and the EU, and immigration, so it was a wide ranging conversation. I have included a link to Robert’s Substack, so you guys can go subscribe to his work.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI spent a good chunk of yesterday on the phone talking with other investors about Sable Offshore $SOC and where things stand there. In the video, I went over the stipulation on the 10 day timeline, OSFM signoff, and the Permit Transfer. I also got into some of the more interesting data points I have seen over the last week on oil, including Diamondback’s $FANG latest letter to shareholders, what’s going on in the Permian with rig counts, frac spreads, and the gas to oil ratio. I also briefly covered a couple other topics, including artificial intelligence, inflation, and the broad commodities complex.Appeals of the Permit TransfersLegal Code On Appealing The Permit Transfer (Why A Tie Vote Reverts To The Original Decision)Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to talk about everything going on in the Trump Administration, the Federal Reserve, and on the geopolitical chessboard. We got into tariffs and the recent trade deal with Europe, the Deep State, the impact of stablecoins on the financial system, and the important role gold will play moving forward. You can find Tom on Twitter and over at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* Tariffs and their impact on his trademark cigars, and reorganizing the global economy.* The European trade deal, and what Trump might have given in return for that deal.* The order of operations when it comes to Trump going after the Deep State. * The state of the Federal Reserve, the importance of the next Fed Chair, and what they will do over the rest of 2025.* Stablecoins, the Treasury, and a potential return to a community banking model.* The state of the oil market, and the reason for the Brent-WTI spread tightening up. * The geopolitical state of Europe, and where capital flows are headed over the next several years.* Gold becoming a more important part of the financial system moving forward, and why the financial system needs more collateral.* Book Recommendation: Chapterhouse: Dune by Frank Herbert.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Matt Warder back on the podcast for an update on the coal sector. We also got into copper, rare earths, and several other big picture financial market topics. If you’re interested in the coal sector or have some of the individual coal stocks on your watchlist, you guys will like this one. If you’re listening on one of the podcast apps, you might want to switch to YouTube or Substack because Matt shared some charts along the way. You can find The Coal Trader Substack below, but he’s also on Twitter.Podcast Summary* High level view for met coal vs. thermal and why the worst is behind us for both commodities.* Why coal is approaching a trough at some point in the next 18 months for the next 5 year cycle.* How the war in Ukraine and European steel production could have an impact on met coal. * Copper, rare earths, MP Materials, and how the government is going to play a role in several different critical supply chains moving forward. * The ties between natural gas and thermal coal.* At the end we get some of the individual names in the sector and he lays out why he is partial to Core Natural Resources CNR now. * The factor driven rally in recent weeks where high short interest stocks have rallied, which also included the coal stocks. * How tariffs and other political headlines impact the coal sector. * The dollar, interest rates, and other macroeconomic factors that feed into commodity markets. * Book Recommendation: Apple In China by Patrick McGee.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe