Kontrarian Korner

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, shares his insights on macroeconomics and finance. He discusses the Fourth Turning's implications for U.S. politics and culture amidst rising wealth inequality. Gromen explores the dynamics of Bitcoin and gold, emphasizing gold's resurgence as a reserve asset due to geopolitical tensions. He analyzes the relationship between oil, gold, and U.S. manufacturing, while also addressing the potential consequences of AI investment on employment and economic structures. A thought-provoking conversation on future financial trends!

Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast. We got into a bunch of different topics, from immigration to the Civil Rights Act and the return of family dynasties. We also talked about one of my favorite long term political topics, which is the change in our form of government to something closer to a monarchy. It was a very interesting conversation, and for anyone interested the long term future of the US and our government, and the potential for a Caesar figure, you will enjoy this one. You can find Will on Twitter, as well as on The American Tribune Substack.Podcast Summary* His big picture view on immigration, and why removing welfare programs and taxing remittances would likely lead to more self-deportations.* The importance of shifting the Overton Window on immigration and other problems in the US that are fixable.* The Generational Divide, and the split between the Right and the Left across the different generations.* The 2028 and why the modern Left can’t backtrack on the insanity of the last decade.* Why land prices and asset prices are unlikely to come down in the US.* Sovereign wealth fund, inheritance taxes, and the different nuances of each.* A return of family dynasties across the US. * Civil Rights Act, freedom of association, and the importance of local politics.* Why an aristocracy is likely to develop, and the differences between a monarchy and a Caesar figure coming to power.* Space exploration as a potential new frontier.* Book Recommendation: Gotham by Edwin G. Burrows & Mike Wallace.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI originally had a podcast guest lined up for yesterday, but work roped him in, so he will be coming on next week. There wasn’t anything groundbreaking from Sable Offshore’s $SOC 10-Q, but there were a couple things worth mentioning in there. I also went into a couple other things with oil, and a couple pieces on broader markets that I found interesting.Podcast Summary* Thoughts on the 10-Q (nothing earth shattering), mainly that they have enough cash to get things started up without further dilution.* Why I’m not worried about the 10 day waiting period that comes after OSFM signoff, and some of the nuances there.* Short interest ticking up at the end of July.* ZeroHedge: How Oil Production Might Help California Meet Its Environmental Goals* Ranting on the recent IEA forecast.* A quick update on Cenovus’ bid for MEG Energy.* Jorge Arjona’s Thread on Oil (a good Twitter account to follow).* Thoughts on what assumptions are baked into market valuations* AI and the massive capex spend, and why I don’t think it will be that much different from previous spending booms.* Tariffs and the restructuring of the economy, and why economists might need to revisit some of their assumptions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Monday I went on The Contrarian Capitalist podcast to talk markets, current events, and politics. We spent some time on oil, platinum, my views on Europe and the EU, and immigration, so it was a wide ranging conversation. I have included a link to Robert’s Substack, so you guys can go subscribe to his work.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI spent a good chunk of yesterday on the phone talking with other investors about Sable Offshore $SOC and where things stand there. In the video, I went over the stipulation on the 10 day timeline, OSFM signoff, and the Permit Transfer. I also got into some of the more interesting data points I have seen over the last week on oil, including Diamondback’s $FANG latest letter to shareholders, what’s going on in the Permian with rig counts, frac spreads, and the gas to oil ratio. I also briefly covered a couple other topics, including artificial intelligence, inflation, and the broad commodities complex.Appeals of the Permit TransfersLegal Code On Appealing The Permit Transfer (Why A Tie Vote Reverts To The Original Decision)Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to talk about everything going on in the Trump Administration, the Federal Reserve, and on the geopolitical chessboard. We got into tariffs and the recent trade deal with Europe, the Deep State, the impact of stablecoins on the financial system, and the important role gold will play moving forward. You can find Tom on Twitter and over at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* Tariffs and their impact on his trademark cigars, and reorganizing the global economy.* The European trade deal, and what Trump might have given in return for that deal.* The order of operations when it comes to Trump going after the Deep State. * The state of the Federal Reserve, the importance of the next Fed Chair, and what they will do over the rest of 2025.* Stablecoins, the Treasury, and a potential return to a community banking model.* The state of the oil market, and the reason for the Brent-WTI spread tightening up. * The geopolitical state of Europe, and where capital flows are headed over the next several years.* Gold becoming a more important part of the financial system moving forward, and why the financial system needs more collateral.* Book Recommendation: Chapterhouse: Dune by Frank Herbert.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Matt Warder back on the podcast for an update on the coal sector. We also got into copper, rare earths, and several other big picture financial market topics. If you’re interested in the coal sector or have some of the individual coal stocks on your watchlist, you guys will like this one. If you’re listening on one of the podcast apps, you might want to switch to YouTube or Substack because Matt shared some charts along the way. You can find The Coal Trader Substack below, but he’s also on Twitter.Podcast Summary* High level view for met coal vs. thermal and why the worst is behind us for both commodities.* Why coal is approaching a trough at some point in the next 18 months for the next 5 year cycle.* How the war in Ukraine and European steel production could have an impact on met coal. * Copper, rare earths, MP Materials, and how the government is going to play a role in several different critical supply chains moving forward. * The ties between natural gas and thermal coal.* At the end we get some of the individual names in the sector and he lays out why he is partial to Core Natural Resources CNR now. * The factor driven rally in recent weeks where high short interest stocks have rallied, which also included the coal stocks. * How tariffs and other political headlines impact the coal sector. * The dollar, interest rates, and other macroeconomic factors that feed into commodity markets. * Book Recommendation: Apple In China by Patrick McGee.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comYesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to give us an update on the energy sector. We talked about current events and sanctions, what US oil production will look like over the next 18 months, and what OPEC has planned for that same timeframe. If you’re trying to get a feel for what the rest of 2025 and 2026 hold for the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter. Podcast Summary* The knee jerk reaction to sanctions on Russian oil, and why they won’t stick.* Chinese inventories increasing, if/when China will stop buying, and Chinese oil demand.* Positioning in distillates (diesel) being at bullish extremes, and how long it might take for that positioning to unwind.* His thoughts on the refining sector, and why it will take some time to see a more favorable environment for refiners.* Associated gas production in the US outpacing crude oil production due to deteriorating well results.* Producers in the Permian saying that their production is going to plateau. Chevron as an example recently revised guidance for higher gas and NGL production and lower crude production.* Why he’s expecting flat US crude oil production into year end.* What US production might look like if oil prices go higher into 2026.* The case for natural gas, and why it’s based on a structural demand increase for LNG.* Why the Haynesville is the only region of the US capable of providing excess gas.* Why Canada is in a different situation when it comes to natural gas, and why AECO (Canadian natural gas) will never trade at premium to Henry Hub (US natural gas).* OPEC, and what they have in store for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and why he sees WTI heading back down into the 60s later this year.* The signposts he’s looking for as far as Saudi production, OPEC, and US production to get very bullish on oil.* Why things in energy markets get obvious before the price move happens.* Offshore drillers, and the structural supply deficit that is going to benefit from increased offshore capex in coming years.* Oil sands producers in Canada, and why producers with long reserve life assets are attractive.* The political environment in Canada, the offtake capacity being a bottleneck longer term, and why they will continue to consolidate north of the border.* The 2018 blowout in WCS-WTI differentials (Canadian oil prices vs. US).* Venezuela, the waivers for Chevron, Mexico, and other producers that might be off the radar.* The lack of exploration spending, and what it means for oil and different subsectors from now until 2030.* Book Recommendation: Apple in China by Patrick McGee & Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Charles Spadille on the podcast for a fascinating conversation on the state of the US. He has a background as a federal immigration enforcement officer, so we got into immigration and the impact it has had on the US over the last several decades. We also got into the generational divide, the dynamics between men and women, and the coming “Fix It” moment. Anyone who watches Peter R. Quiñones’ Thought Crime Syndicate episodes should be familiar with Charles, but you can find him on Twitter and Telegram (@whiskeyandashes). No man is exempt his zeitgeist. We all grew up in the world we grew up in, for better or for worse or for good or for ill.- Charles SpadillePodcast Summary* The Dignity Act, and why it basically looks like an Amnesty bill.* The demographic changes that have happened across the country over the last several decades.* The number of illegals in the US and chain migration.* The generational divide, why younger generations are frustrated, and why the grass is always greener.* The dynamics between men and women, how making women equal will fix it, and the difference between work and adult daycare jobs.* The changing priorities of younger generations.* The fix it moment, and why it is inevitable.* Why the fix it moment won’t fix a democratic republic and his thoughts on monarchy.* Book Recommendations: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie, No More Mr. Nice Guy by Robert Glover & Man’s Search For Meaning by Viktor Frankl. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI have been getting some questions and had a couple of conversations over the weekend on Sable Offshore’s $SOC court hearing on Friday. I briefly touched on the other cases (the CCC and the Permit Transfer), but laid out the importance of the Consent Decree and CEQA in the EDC/CBD case. I also shared some thoughts on why Geck might be trying to thread the needle with the injunction AND the caveat that the OSFM can sign off and Sable can produce after 10 days. My rough estimate for full operations is mid-August, give or take a couple weeks, but the other side is all but guaranteed to play whatever cards they have left. I wrapped up talking about why the next two weeks could give shorts time to exit, and quick thoughts on the options chain, and why some investors are still underestimating fair value. The short term will almost certainly continue to be volatile, but we have some clarity on what the next 4-6 weeks holds as far as jumping through regulatory and legal hoops for Sable.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.