Kontrarian Korner

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI had a couple thoughts rolling around my head on Sable Offshore $SOC , along with some visuals that I wanted to share. I’ll keep pounding the table because I think this freight train is about to leave the station.

On Friday I had Jon Costello on the podcast to focus on the energy sector, and some of the individual ideas he likes in different subsectors and geographies. He writes on the HFIR Ideas side for HFI Research. It was the perfect follow up conversation after I had Wilson on the podcast last Wednesday. If you’re looking for a starting point for your research on some single stock ideas in the energy space, you will enjoy this podcast.Podcast Summary* Jon’s big picture view on energy over the next 6-18 months, and his approach to investing in the sector. * Why he favors the Canadian energy names and offshore oil services. * What happens to North American energy companies with oil below $70 a barrel as far as Capex cuts and production growth. * The impact of the Canadian election on the Canadian companies and the macro picture for oil.* Which Canadian names he likes and why, from the large companies to smaller names that aren’t as widely followed. * British Petroleum $BP and Elliott Management’s activist push to get them to focus on their traditional oil and gas assets.* Offshore oil services, the embedded call option in the stacked capacity of some of these companies, why he prefers the deepwater companies, and which companies he favors in the sector. * He lays out the nuance he sees on natural gas vs. oil, and his thoughts on being bullish on gas being a more consensus view today.* Midstream ideas, MLPs, and which stocks he favors in sector. * Book Recommendation: Descartes’ Error by Antonio Damasio. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to discuss everything going on lately when it comes to oil. We talked about OPEC, Capex cuts in the Permian, and how he expects the next couple years will play out in the energy space. If you are listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. You can find HFI Research on Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The recent news from OPEC, and why the production cut that is now being unwound was really a Saudi production cut, not an OPEC cut.* Why the OPEC production boost doesn’t signal an incoming price war. * The disconnect between the narrative and reality when it comes to OPEC. * How tariff and macro uncertainty factor into the perception of oil demand for the rest of 2025. * How OPEC is forcing the inevitable, and why he thinks non-OPEC oil supply will disappoint to the downside moving forward. * Capex cuts in the Permian due to lower oil prices, and the disconnect between consensus US production vs. the HFI estimates.* Why he thinks we will see more Capex cuts in the Permian in coming months, especially if oil sits around $60 a barrel. * How all of this leads to a structural supply deficit for oil from 2026 and beyond.* The timing problem when it comes to buying energy equities and the disconnect between the fundamentals and the narrative when it comes to oil.* Why $70 a barrel was the worst case scenario for shale operators.* Why we could see more M&A in the Permian.* His view on tariff and trade deal negotiations, and why he doesn’t see a quick resolution.* His view on Iranian sanctions, and why they won’t be effective.* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve being filled up and why logistical issues mean it will take a long time to refill.* Why natural gas will be the first energy commodity to go into a bull market, and why he thinks we could see a spike in natural gas this summer.* Potential scenarios where the US might have to shut in LNG export capacity in 2026. * What he prioritizes when he is looking at natural gas equities: the lowest cost producers, and producers that are not as hedged. * His thoughts on the challenges of entrepreneurship.* Book Recommendations: The Nvidia Way by Tae Kim, Source Code by Bill Gates & Shoe Dog by Phil Knight.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Andy from Finding Value Finance back on the podcast. We talked about commodities, different ratios like gold to oil, and his long term thoughts on where markets are headed. If you happen to be listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. It was a great conversation and will definitely be food for thought on long term market cycles, and some of the most attractive places to look in the market right now. You can find him at Finding Value Finance, on YouTube, and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* How the devaluation of the dollar impacts how commodities move long term.* The importance of zooming out and looking at long term charts.* What he sees with oil inventories and from conference calls from several subsectors in energy.* The bearish narrative around tariff uncertainty, recession and oil demand, and OPEC spare capacity. * What he sees for natural gas and oil services moving forward. * The gold to oil ratio (more than 55 barrels for one ounce of gold), and why he doesn’t see the ratio blowing out even more from here. * Why he’s still bullish on gold, but finds other precious metals like platinum and silver more attractive at today’s prices.* What he likes outside of energy and precious metals, from lithium to agricultural commodities, coal, and steel.* His thoughts on residential real estate and some of the crosswinds that will have an impact over the next 3-5 years. * Book Recommendation: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Michael Every on the podcast to discuss recent geopolitical events and how he views the world. He’s a Global Strategist at Rabobank and a guest that I have been looking forward to chatting with for some time. We talked about important shifts happening right now in financial markets, US and China relations, and how he looks at the political changes and uncertainty around recent events. The best place to find him is on Twitter, where his daily updates on current events are a must read. Podcast Summary* The difference between Economic Policy and Economic Statecraft.* The shift from the primary focus being on what is good for financial markets to what is good for national security.* The state of play between the US and China, and the different pressure points for each country. * Some of the distortions in the Chinese economy, from real estate to manufacturing.* How the financial media distorts the narrative around recent events and tariffs. * The importance of asking the question: “What is GDP for?”* How Europe will be forced to make a decision between the US and China.* How some of the conflicts around the world might develop from here.* US shifting its focus to North and South America and China and pulling back from the Middle East and Europe. * Gold’s role moving forward, and why the US won’t abandon the dollar reserve currency.* How the US could approach a sovereign wealth fund.* Book Recommendation: Trade Wars Are Class Wars by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had PurpleDrinkCapital on the podcast to discuss what is going on recently in financial markets. We talked about the uncertainty around how things will play out, sentiment on equities and energy, several individual names he likes, and more. It was a fun conversation and his career experience gives him some insight on energy in particular. You can find him on Twitter, as well as on Substack below. Podcast Summary* His view on the overall market and the potential for a Zweig Breadth Thrust.* Overall sentiment on broader markets and the energy sector. * Shale in the Permian being in terminal decline, and why the case for a commodities bull market is growing stronger by the day.* Why he likes Antero Resources $AR in the natural gas producer space and Williams $WMB in the pipeline space.* Why Cheniere $LNG is his favorite in the LNG space. * Some thoughts on valuing commodity producers.* Why he is interested in Bitcoin and owns some Coinbase $COIN . * How financial markets are moving in light of recent geopolitical uncertainty. * How his career experience in the energy space gives him an advantage when looking at ways to express his views on certain commodities.* His views on stimulus on the horizon and how it ties into commodities (and not just gold).* Book Recommendation: The Harry Potter books. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last Friday I had Dexter White back on the podcast to talk about some of the recent chaos across the world. We talked about Trump’s first three months in office, the complicated geopolitical chessboard, and several different aspects of the media landscape. It was a great conversation and will definitely give listeners something to think about on a bunch of different topics. You can find Dexter on Twitter, as well as at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* Trump 2.0 and tariffs, and the intent behind the chaotic messaging. * The unified message of the media.* The importance of having certain industries in the US, from pharmaceuticals, steel, and military supply chains. * The other motivations behind Trump’s approach to dealing with China.* The Monroe Doctrine or Trumpian Manifest Destiny when it comes to the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada. * China’s dominance in drone technology and production. * The ZOPA (zone of potential agreement), the Art of the Deal, and Trump’s approach to negotiations with other countries. * The importance of the fentanyl crisis and the 100,000 people that die on an annual basis in the US. It’s not military tactics, but it is a form of warfare. * The propaganda and the signal to noise ratio when it comes to financial media.* The structural demand change in gold, what it means for the gold to silver ratio, and other commodities. * His thoughts on energy, from oil to gas to coal as well.* Book Recommendation: Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI want to wish everyone a Happy Easter and give everyone the podcast I promised on Thursday. I talked a bit about the geopolitical situation, the lack of certainty, a couple trends that I am certain about, and some thoughts on oil. Podcast Summary

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to discuss some of the recent chaos in financial markets. We covered some of the connections between moves in different currencies and markets, the geopolitical picture, commodities, and much more. I assume most of you are familiar with Tom’s work, but if not, you can find him at Gold Goats n’ Guns and on Twitter. Podcast Summary* Why his focus in the cross market moves was the rise in the Euro, British Pound, and the Canadian dollar, not the basis trade. * The problem with believing we have free markets.* How he sees things resolving between the US and China.* Waiting to see how Canadian elections turn out to see what Trump’s approach to Canada will look like. * One of the biggest advantages of the US is access to deep and liquid financial markets. * The progression of spending cuts and what they need to focus on, and why it’s important that they cut off the spending that was being used to try to destroy the US (USAID, NED, etc) first.* His view on commodities, from gold and silver, to oil and copper, and why recent moves there are selling a recession trade. He isn’t sure if that is real or not.* Gold as a safe haven and as the collateral for the future.* Bitcoin, and the Treasury demand driven by the growth of stablecoins. * Europe’s plans for Ukraine, and the progress of the talks between the US and Iran.* The difference between Trump the person and the character he plays on TV.* The budget resolution, the tax cuts, and tariffs, and how they are related.* Why he is bullish on the Russell 2000 longer term if Trump is successful on deregulation and tax cuts.* Book Recommendation: The Chronicles of Thomas Covenant by Stephen Donaldson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Thursday I had Russell Clark on the podcast for the first time for a great conversation. We talked about the US financial markets looking like an emerging market, how politics drives financial markets, and some of the things he’s watching right now. We also talked a little bit about the launch of his new fund, Brumby Capital. Podcast Summary* How the US is behaving like an emerging market, and how financial market correlations might change moving forward. * Why Treasuries aren’t behaving like a safe haven, and the path to double digit interest rates. * The political drive to rebalance financial markets. * Where things lead for private equity and private credit, especially with higher rates.* The trend of Gold vs. TLT and Gold vs. S&P 500.* Oil, LNG, and the interactions between the different parts of the energy sector.* Geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine, and some of the different powerful factions in each region. * Europe and Japan remilitarizing.* Securing supply lines and the change from globalization to deglobalization. * The complicated relationship between the US and China, and where things might be headed from here.* His plans for Brumby Capital, which he is in the process of launching now. * Book Recommendation: Age of Extremes by Eric Hobsbawm.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe