Kontrarian Korner

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend, and I wanted to do a quick update on all of the stuff going on recently, from the talk about Greenland and Canada to the upcoming World Economic Forum and Trump’s speech set for Wednesday. It has been everything, everywhere, all at once on the geopolitical stage so far in 2026, and it’s worth keeping an eye on as this year develops. I also talked about news updates from several companies that I own, along with some talk on silver and the disconnect for the miners. For anyone that prefers to read instead of watching the video, the transcript should be a quicker way to roll through the updates. I also included a link to the podcast I mentioned in the video below.Whirly Bard Interview on Contrarian Codex (for anyone interested in LibertyStream)The first half is on LibertyStream (LIB.V), and the second half is on Comstock $LODE (no position).

Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame on the podcast to talk about the fast start to 2026 as far as geopolitics and financial markets. We touched on everything from Venezuela, to the Middle East and China, as well as the current political situation in the US. We also got into some of the changes happening in financial markets, and what we could see long-term as far as a complete change in the financial system. You can find E.M.’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Recent events in Venezuela, what comes after Maduro, and how it impacts other parts of the world.* Why he thinks Cuba will change on its own, and the potential for the US to buy Greenland. * How certain factions think that Europe is planning for war against the US through Canada, and how Alberta and a potential secession factor in.* Why he’s keeping an eye on Iran and Israel and the Middle East, and the current state of Iran, and the ongoing regime change efforts.* Recent events in Ukraine, the use of another Oreshnik missile, and why a chain of geopolitical events can happen in bursts before pausing for a bit of a reset.* What to watch for at next week’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos.* The power struggle going on in China, and why they are likely to be the center of gravity in that region of the world moving forward. * China’s economic system of political capitalism and how the US used to have a similar system before 1971. * What the next year holds for the US, and why deportations are a twenty to thirty year problem. * The setup for the midterms this year, and the multiple dimensions of the current political situation.* Why it’s important to focus on the local level, and the importance of the next generation of young men.* The tremors that are becoming more obvious in the financial system, and why the City of London’s ability to price metals (not just gold and silver) is breaking.* Why all metals will probably continue to increase in price, and why he thinks they will try to prop up the broad equity market.* How stablecoins could be used to link the debt market to the rest of the economy.* Why we could see a return to the gold standard in a tokenized system, but why we are probably going to try a tokenized form of cryptocurrency first.* Book Recommendation: The Financialist Kill Chain by E.M. Burlingame.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday, I had Sara (TripleS Special Situations) and Albert Collette on the podcast to discuss the tin market, why it presents an interesting opportunity, and why First Tin is an attractive way to play that opportunity for investors. Sara has experience in the commodities space as an operator and investor in opportunities that are off the beaten path, and Albert is a former board member of the company. Both of them own a decent sized stake in the company, and they lay out a compelling case for the potential upside over the next couple years for the company. If they can get permitting and financing for the Taronga asset, today’s share price is going to look like a bargain. Podcast Summary* A brief history of the tin market, how it was regulated by the International Tin Council, and how today’s setup was decades in the making. * The supply and demand outlook for tin, and why it points to higher prices for the metal moving forward. * Several of the uses for tin, and how there is a structural tailwind for tin demand moving forward. * A high level overview of First Tin and their assets. * Metals X as a large shareholder of First Tin, along with the video Sara mentioned below.* The Taronga asset, what the open pit will look like, and the potential to expand the resource significantly. * The dilution that has happened over the last couple years, and why they both think that the worst of the dilution is behind us. * The expected timeline for the permitting process (first half of 2026 is their expectation), and how EXIM financing will likely follow after that.* Why Metals X could look to acquire First Tin in that window between permitting and financing. * The European assets of the company, and some background on the tin and other critical minerals at Tellerhäuser in Germany.* How Tellerhäuser was discovered during Soviet occupation, and the historical drill results they have from that era, which would have been hundreds of millions in today’s money. * The resource nationalism when it comes to the supply chains for different commodities. * The potential upside for investors if First Tin can advance the Taronga project through permitting and financing.DisclaimerI own shares of First Tin (1SN on the London Stock Exchange). You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to do a video as a follow up to my post yesterday and talk about recent events in Venezuela, how it might impact different energy subsectors, with a focus on $OIH and $SLB for example. I also took a look at some long term ratio charts for different assets and commodities of interest. I have included links below for stuff I talked about in the video, but it’s worth a watch for investors looking at where money might continue to flow in 2026. Silver: A Broken Market Before a “Reset”? by Cyrille JubertIndonesia to cut mining output quotas to support prices, minister says. -ReutersKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss everything going on precious metals and his outlook for the sector in 2026. We talked about the recent move in silver, some of the current events, and why he’s still bullish. We also talked about gold leading the whole commodities complex, platinum flying under the radar, but breaking out to its highest level since 2011, and everything else that he is watching as 2025 draws to a close. You can find Vince’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The physical shortage of silver in London, how they are caught in a rolling squeeze, and the backwardated market for physical silver.* Silver as a critical mineral, China restricting silver exports, and other shifts in the supply chain for silver.* Other recent events with silver, including the Black Friday blackout and margin raises.* Why he is sustainably bullish on silver for the next several years, his expectations for triple digit silver in that timeframe, and how silver becomes more precious as gold goes higher in price.* How the physical market for silver is starting to assert dominance over the paper market.* The tug of war between silver as an industrial metal vs. precious metal, and the tug of war between industrial demand for silver and investment demand.* Increased investment demand for gold and silver miners over the next 12 months, and why we could see the miners catch up when gold and silver prices consolidate.* The valuation gap between streamers and royalty plays in precious metals vs. the miners.* Why he wants to look at gold miners that are looking to add copper exposure.* His outlook for gold in 2026, why we could see a 10-20% selloff, and why he expects gold to continue to drag the commodities complex higher.* Platinum and palladium as a pair, why platinum still flying under the radar, and how platinum could be ripe for a short squeeze and/or a sustained rally.* Why silver and other commodities are going to go up relative to gold, and why commodities are going to trade at their fundamental natural ratios relative to gold in coming years.* How he looks at ratio charts of different assets, comparing the S&P to gold, silver, and miners. * Gold vs. silver vs. copper, and other ratios he looks at as a signpost to compare where different assets are, and how they can signal a regime change.* The high level view on copper, and why he sees a potential catalyst for a spike in the copper price. * Why oil is going to be the last part of the commodities complex to wake up, and why he’s paying attention to vertically integrated oil producers looking ahead to 2026.* The Fed becoming an arm of the Treasury.* Other things that he’s paying attention to for 2026, including inflation, rates, yield curve control and QE, as well as other asset classes.* Book Recommendations: Absolute Batman & The Tower Of Basel by Adam LeBor.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

A fascinating dive into market trends unfolds as experts discuss the implications of the recent Fed meeting. They highlight a bullish outlook for small caps and express skepticism towards AI in the tech sector. Precious metals, particularly silver, are poised for a breakout, with copper expected to thrive as China revives. The strategic importance of bellwethers like Newmont for gold and Exxon for oil & gas is analyzed. The conversation wraps up with insights on navigating inflation risks as we approach 2026.

Ross Jennings, an investor and large shareholder in Millennial Potash, shares insights from his extensive background in commodities. He discusses the undervaluation of Millennial and the expected resolution of port logistics by 2026. Jennings highlights the significant economies of scale from the Banio project and its structural advantages in shipping to Brazil. He also covers the importance of CAPEX and OPEX figures, potential future valuations, and the geopolitical landscape in Gabon, all while encouraging investors to focus on long-term growth drivers.

The podcast dives into the booming world of commodities, highlighting silver's all-time highs and capital rotation trends. There’s an intriguing look at South America as a prime destination for commodity investments. Listeners learn about under-the-radar metals like lithium and tin, with insider buying sparking interest. The discussion also touches on potential Fed changes that could affect interest rates, rounding out a compelling exploration of market trends and future opportunities.

Yesterday I had Melody Wright on the podcast to talk about all things real estate. We got into the changing demographic trends, institutional and foreign ownership of real estate, and the different narratives around equities, AI spending, and real estate. We also talked about the privatization of Fannie Mae and homebuilder sector, among other things. For anyone interested in real estate, Melody is a must follow, and you can find her Substack below, or on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The problems with the 50 year mortgage idea.* Demographic trends that could have a huge impact on residential real estate, from generational turnover to immigration and potential remigration.* The crosscurrents between property taxes, insurance costs, and affordability.* Investor ownership and foreign ownership of residential real estate, and the problems with government interfering with the real estate market by subsidizing demand.* The generational divide topic when it comes to real estate, and how it gets amplified by social media.* Why she doesn’t think Fannie Mae will be privatized, and the issues from the real estate market that could have an impact.* The issues with the homebuilders and the seller concessions they have been making to move inventory.* Her view on equities, the AI spending bubble, and how it is connected to real estate.* The narratives changing on real estate, AI, equities, and how markets have started to price in narrative changes faster.* Why she thinks we will return to historical norms for real estate prices relative to median income, and the price declines that have to happen to bring that back inline. * How some of the institutions are net sellers of residential real estate.* Rental prices, the overbuilding of multifamily apartments, and concessions on rent.* Where money could flow over the next couple years.* Her thoughts on crypto, and the issues there.* Book Recommendations: The Price Of Time by Ed Chancellor, Bubble In The Sun by Christopher Knowlton & The Swamp Peddlers by Jason Vuic. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had first time guest Scott Osheroff on the podcast. He runs Yurta Capital and is focused on overlooked opportunities in frontier markets and commodities. We talked about his experience traveling and investing all over the world, and why he thinks we will see a capital rotation to markets outside of the US. We also bounced around different commodities sectors, and which ones he finds appealing today. You can find him on Twitter and on Telegram. Podcast Summary* His experience in Asia, Eastern Europe, and looking at opportunities in overlooked areas of the market.* Why we in the early stages of a multi-year reallocation to the rest of the world, and why it doesn’t take much money to move markets outside of the US.* Getting more conservative and the potential for a market correction where correlations go to one.* The torque available in offshore oil services, and the outlook for the next several years.* Precious metals, and how investors all seem to focus on the same handful of ideas.* Avoiding the herd mentality when it comes to commodities.* Iron ore, coal, natural gas, and why the traditional hydrocarbons companies are near the top of his list right now.* The multi-speed global economy, and how different major economies and markets have different policies.* Chemicals, and why he’s paying attention to Chinese policy for that sector.* Agricultural companies, the importance of cheap natural gas for the sector, and why he thinks the gap between US natural gas prices and European prices will converge.* Why he thinks the dollar is in the early stages of a secular decline, and the potential for capital rotation.* Book Recommendations: Burmese Days by George Orwell, How Asia Works by Joe Studwell & Asian Godfathers by Joe Studwell.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe