Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Rudy Havenstein back on the podcast to discuss what is going on in the world, markets, and of course, we also talked about inflation. He’s full of a bunch of interesting information, anecdotes, and stories on financial markets, politics, and current events. Listeners will learn a thing or two and be entertained along the way, but for anyone interested in the intersection of markets, politics, inflation, and the Federal Reserve, this one’s for you. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he is one of the most entertaining follows on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Inflation, and the difference between cost levels and the rate of change.* Why there is nothing capitalist about the Federal Reserve, and how what happened in 2008 and 2020 led us to where we are today. * The political divide in the country, and why he criticizes both sides.* Why he expects we will see more politicians like Mamdani.* The religious void in the culture that people are looking to fill, and the campaign to destroy the nuclear family.* Why he is a free speech absolutist. * Private credit, real estate, and the problems with reaching for yield. * Foreign influence over US politics, and how most Americans are anti-war.* Why he doesn’t see a lot of opportunities in the market today.* Why the market won’t go back to allocating capital based on valuations and fundamentals until you put a leash on The Fed and get rid of the notion of “Too Big To Fail.”* Book Recommendation: Weird Scenes Inside The Canyon by David McGowan.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Maxim Benjamin Smith on the podcast to give us the firsthand account he has had over the last couple years as the test subject for The Preparation. We talked about some of his best and worst experiences from his travels, what he will be doing next, and how it has shaped his view of the world. We also talked about where he thinks the world is headed over the next couple decades, and why young men are becoming more right wing. It was a little different from my typical podcast, but if you happen to have boys in middle school or high school and are open minded about alternatives to college, you will enjoy this one. Podcast Summary* The story behind developing The Preparation.* Some of the best experiences he has had, from sailing in the Falkland Islands to becoming an EMT and fighting fires.* His experience working for a junior exploration company in Nevada.* How his experiences have shaped his worldview.* Where he sees the US and the world heading over the next couple decades.* Why young men are becoming more right wing. * The cultural issues facing the West and societal decay.* Book Recommendation: Education of a Wandering Man by Louis L’Amour.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had my friend, Dan Herrin, on the podcast. He’s a longtime private investigator, one of the best storytellers I have met, and has an interesting lens on financial markets. I was able to get a couple stories from his career (he’s got a ton), as well as some anecdotes from his current roadtrip. We also talked about his view on precious metals, energy, and why he’s starting to get optimistic about the path of things here in the US. It was a little bit different conversation from my typical podcast, but I’ll definitely have him back on in the future to get more stories out of him. You can find on Twitter, where he’s a very entertaining follow. Podcast Summary* A couple stories from his time as a private investigator, and several anecdotes from his current roadtrip, and how they tie into financial markets.* His view on precious metals, why he thinks it might be different this time, and how he’s playing it.* Why he’s keeping an eye on oil for 2026, why he thinks things get worse before they get better, and the next leg of his road trip taking him to the Bakken.* The Fourth Turning, the state of the US, and why he’s starting to get optimistic from his interactions with younger generations. * The shift from B.C. (Before COVID) to A.C. (After COVID), and how large narratives have been shifting in recent years. * Book Recommendation: The Road Less Traveled by M. Scott Peck.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to talk about everything going on the world of markets, current events, and we even got into a couple of our favorite rabbit holes. He doesn’t pull any punches and as always, he is very entertaining. Our conversation will have something for everyone, and if you want to find Dave, you can find him on Twitter. Podcast Summary* What he’s seeing in markets, and where he’s actually bullish (precious metals and platinum in particular).* How the current situation is different from past euphorias, and why he calls it a complacency bubble.* The problems that we will see in private equity and private credit.* Passive investment and markets no longer being a price discovery mechanism.* His thoughts on Charlie Kirk, and why he has questions around the official story.* The situation in Ukraine, and why it might continue to drag on longer than we expected.* Israel, the Middle East, and the USS Liberty. * The AI race with China, the circular AI economy, and the Ponzi feel to stablecoins.* The problem with the government taking equity stakes in companies.* Book Recommendation: The Wisdom Of Crowds by James Surowiecki & The Great Courses Series.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Matt Smith, founder of Crisis Investing and co-author of The Preparation, sheds light on innovative alternatives to college education. He discusses the significance of intergenerational relationships and the looming monetary reset in the U.S. The conversation delves into the implications of AI on the job market, the potential for societal upheaval, and the pivotal return of gold in finance. Additionally, Smith critiques passive investing's market distortions and shares his cautious outlook on cryptocurrencies, underscoring the need for adapted strategies in a rapidly changing economic landscape.

Roberto Rios, known as The Peruvian Bull, is a macro commentator and author who dives deep into economic trends. He discusses the Fed's policies and the impacts of stealth QE on the Treasury market, revealing how stablecoins create pressure for shorter maturities. Rios shares insights on precious metals, emphasizing gold's role in anticipating QE. He critiques the unaffordability of real estate and the implications of institutional ownership. Lastly, he addresses asset inflation driven by liquidity and presents a unique perspective on Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.

Join independent investor John Polomny, known for his contrarian strategies and insights on global macroeconomics. He shares his thoughts on the overvaluation of U.S. markets and the potential of precious metals. Polomny highlights bullish trends in energy, especially offshore oil services, while cautioning against the overpriced residential real estate market. He explores undervalued international opportunities and discusses the political shifts that could impact economies. A thought-provoking conversation on navigating current and future trends!

Yesterday I had Rob Connors from The Crude Chronicles on the podcast. If you’re interested in the long term picture for the energy sector, his work is worth checking out below. We got into a bunch of different topics, from the peaking productivity rates in the US, the importance of development costs, and where he sees the floor for oil. One of the other big picture topics that is starting to get more attention is the capex boom in the tech sector, and he compares it to oil and gas capex. For anyone interested in energy, you might learn a thing or two from this podcast. You can also find Rob on Twitter. Podcast Summary* His thoughts on OPEC, why today doesn’t feel like a price war, and why he thinks the floor for oil is in the high 50s to low 60s.* Why development costs are a good predictor of oil prices over the long run.* Why the geology is the most important driver of costs versus new factors like steel tariffs.* Peaking well productivity rates in the US and why we are on the last leg for technology advancements and efficiency gains.* The capex boom for the tech companies on AI spending, and capex for the energy sector.* His view on natural gas over the next several years, and why we aren’t seeing a rise in development costs for natural gas.* Why he likes the refiners, and which energy subsectors perform best in different parts of the cycle.* Factors he is watching to see if we are heading into a recession.* Book Recommendations: Apple In China by Patrick McGee, Together We Roared by Steve Williams & Lords Of Finance by Liaquat Ahmed & Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Before I spent all of the last two days on the phone, I had Robert Smallbone of The Contrarian Capitalist Substack on the podcast. We talked about his view on what is going on in Europe and the U.K., why he left England and the importance of having a Plan B, and what he sees for commodities and broader financial markets in the future. You should check out his Substack below.Podcast Summary* European politics, the mysterious deaths of several AFD politicians, and the current state of the UK.* The financial state of European governments and European bonds.* His view on precious metals and why they are simplest way to protect wealth over the next several years. * Why he is partial to silver over gold currently.* What he thinks about energy, how devaluation will play a role for commodities, and his view on oil, natural gas, and uranium.* Where he sees equity markets heading over the next several years.* Why there will be a huge opportunity in bonds in the distant future, and why he views them as certificates of confiscation for now. * The importance of having a Plan B and why he left Europe.* Book Recommendation: The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, shares his insights on macroeconomics and finance. He discusses the Fourth Turning's implications for U.S. politics and culture amidst rising wealth inequality. Gromen explores the dynamics of Bitcoin and gold, emphasizing gold's resurgence as a reserve asset due to geopolitical tensions. He analyzes the relationship between oil, gold, and U.S. manufacturing, while also addressing the potential consequences of AI investment on employment and economic structures. A thought-provoking conversation on future financial trends!