Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to talk about everything going on the world of markets, current events, and we even got into a couple of our favorite rabbit holes. He doesn’t pull any punches and as always, he is very entertaining. Our conversation will have something for everyone, and if you want to find Dave, you can find him on Twitter. Podcast Summary* What he’s seeing in markets, and where he’s actually bullish (precious metals and platinum in particular).* How the current situation is different from past euphorias, and why he calls it a complacency bubble.* The problems that we will see in private equity and private credit.* Passive investment and markets no longer being a price discovery mechanism.* His thoughts on Charlie Kirk, and why he has questions around the official story.* The situation in Ukraine, and why it might continue to drag on longer than we expected.* Israel, the Middle East, and the USS Liberty. * The AI race with China, the circular AI economy, and the Ponzi feel to stablecoins.* The problem with the government taking equity stakes in companies.* Book Recommendation: The Wisdom Of Crowds by James Surowiecki & The Great Courses Series.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Matt Smith, founder of Crisis Investing and co-author of The Preparation, sheds light on innovative alternatives to college education. He discusses the significance of intergenerational relationships and the looming monetary reset in the U.S. The conversation delves into the implications of AI on the job market, the potential for societal upheaval, and the pivotal return of gold in finance. Additionally, Smith critiques passive investing's market distortions and shares his cautious outlook on cryptocurrencies, underscoring the need for adapted strategies in a rapidly changing economic landscape.

Roberto Rios, known as The Peruvian Bull, is a macro commentator and author who dives deep into economic trends. He discusses the Fed's policies and the impacts of stealth QE on the Treasury market, revealing how stablecoins create pressure for shorter maturities. Rios shares insights on precious metals, emphasizing gold's role in anticipating QE. He critiques the unaffordability of real estate and the implications of institutional ownership. Lastly, he addresses asset inflation driven by liquidity and presents a unique perspective on Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.

Join independent investor John Polomny, known for his contrarian strategies and insights on global macroeconomics. He shares his thoughts on the overvaluation of U.S. markets and the potential of precious metals. Polomny highlights bullish trends in energy, especially offshore oil services, while cautioning against the overpriced residential real estate market. He explores undervalued international opportunities and discusses the political shifts that could impact economies. A thought-provoking conversation on navigating current and future trends!

Yesterday I had Rob Connors from The Crude Chronicles on the podcast. If you’re interested in the long term picture for the energy sector, his work is worth checking out below. We got into a bunch of different topics, from the peaking productivity rates in the US, the importance of development costs, and where he sees the floor for oil. One of the other big picture topics that is starting to get more attention is the capex boom in the tech sector, and he compares it to oil and gas capex. For anyone interested in energy, you might learn a thing or two from this podcast. You can also find Rob on Twitter. Podcast Summary* His thoughts on OPEC, why today doesn’t feel like a price war, and why he thinks the floor for oil is in the high 50s to low 60s.* Why development costs are a good predictor of oil prices over the long run.* Why the geology is the most important driver of costs versus new factors like steel tariffs.* Peaking well productivity rates in the US and why we are on the last leg for technology advancements and efficiency gains.* The capex boom for the tech companies on AI spending, and capex for the energy sector.* His view on natural gas over the next several years, and why we aren’t seeing a rise in development costs for natural gas.* Why he likes the refiners, and which energy subsectors perform best in different parts of the cycle.* Factors he is watching to see if we are heading into a recession.* Book Recommendations: Apple In China by Patrick McGee, Together We Roared by Steve Williams & Lords Of Finance by Liaquat Ahmed & Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Before I spent all of the last two days on the phone, I had Robert Smallbone of The Contrarian Capitalist Substack on the podcast. We talked about his view on what is going on in Europe and the U.K., why he left England and the importance of having a Plan B, and what he sees for commodities and broader financial markets in the future. You should check out his Substack below.Podcast Summary* European politics, the mysterious deaths of several AFD politicians, and the current state of the UK.* The financial state of European governments and European bonds.* His view on precious metals and why they are simplest way to protect wealth over the next several years. * Why he is partial to silver over gold currently.* What he thinks about energy, how devaluation will play a role for commodities, and his view on oil, natural gas, and uranium.* Where he sees equity markets heading over the next several years.* Why there will be a huge opportunity in bonds in the distant future, and why he views them as certificates of confiscation for now. * The importance of having a Plan B and why he left Europe.* Book Recommendation: The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, shares his insights on macroeconomics and finance. He discusses the Fourth Turning's implications for U.S. politics and culture amidst rising wealth inequality. Gromen explores the dynamics of Bitcoin and gold, emphasizing gold's resurgence as a reserve asset due to geopolitical tensions. He analyzes the relationship between oil, gold, and U.S. manufacturing, while also addressing the potential consequences of AI investment on employment and economic structures. A thought-provoking conversation on future financial trends!

Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast. We got into a bunch of different topics, from immigration to the Civil Rights Act and the return of family dynasties. We also talked about one of my favorite long term political topics, which is the change in our form of government to something closer to a monarchy. It was a very interesting conversation, and for anyone interested the long term future of the US and our government, and the potential for a Caesar figure, you will enjoy this one. You can find Will on Twitter, as well as on The American Tribune Substack.Podcast Summary* His big picture view on immigration, and why removing welfare programs and taxing remittances would likely lead to more self-deportations.* The importance of shifting the Overton Window on immigration and other problems in the US that are fixable.* The Generational Divide, and the split between the Right and the Left across the different generations.* The 2028 and why the modern Left can’t backtrack on the insanity of the last decade.* Why land prices and asset prices are unlikely to come down in the US.* Sovereign wealth fund, inheritance taxes, and the different nuances of each.* A return of family dynasties across the US. * Civil Rights Act, freedom of association, and the importance of local politics.* Why an aristocracy is likely to develop, and the differences between a monarchy and a Caesar figure coming to power.* Space exploration as a potential new frontier.* Book Recommendation: Gotham by Edwin G. Burrows & Mike Wallace.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI originally had a podcast guest lined up for yesterday, but work roped him in, so he will be coming on next week. There wasn’t anything groundbreaking from Sable Offshore’s $SOC 10-Q, but there were a couple things worth mentioning in there. I also went into a couple other things with oil, and a couple pieces on broader markets that I found interesting.Podcast Summary* Thoughts on the 10-Q (nothing earth shattering), mainly that they have enough cash to get things started up without further dilution.* Why I’m not worried about the 10 day waiting period that comes after OSFM signoff, and some of the nuances there.* Short interest ticking up at the end of July.* ZeroHedge: How Oil Production Might Help California Meet Its Environmental Goals* Ranting on the recent IEA forecast.* A quick update on Cenovus’ bid for MEG Energy.* Jorge Arjona’s Thread on Oil (a good Twitter account to follow).* Thoughts on what assumptions are baked into market valuations* AI and the massive capex spend, and why I don’t think it will be that much different from previous spending booms.* Tariffs and the restructuring of the economy, and why economists might need to revisit some of their assumptions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Monday I went on The Contrarian Capitalist podcast to talk markets, current events, and politics. We spent some time on oil, platinum, my views on Europe and the EU, and immigration, so it was a wide ranging conversation. I have included a link to Robert’s Substack, so you guys can go subscribe to his work.