Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Ross Jennings on the podcast to talk about Millennial Potash. He’s the largest shareholder and owns more than a quarter of the stock, and our conversation got into many of the questions I have received on the company. We talked about everything from the political risk in Gabon, what the company has to do to get into production and how long he expects it to take, to the upside case if the company does get the Banio project online. For anyone interested in the company, this one is definitely worth a watch. You can also find Ross’ writeup on Millennial Potash below.Podcast Summary* A little bit on his background, and how he first got involved with Millennial Potash.* Why he thinks Millennial is as undervalued now as it was a year ago due to the progress the company has made.* Why he thinks port logistics will be resolved in 2026, so the Banio project can produce significantly more than the 800,000 tons/year in the PEA. * How Millennial Potash has a structural logistics advantage shipping into Brazil (which imports 13-14M tons a year of potash), to the tune of at least $20/ton in dry bulk shipping costs. * Why investors should pay attention to the CAPEX and OPEX numbers when Millennial releases their feasibility study.* Comparing Millennial in the future to China’s largest potash producer, QSLI, and the growth in potash imports in China over the last several years.* The nuance of the drill results, why the Banio project offers huge economies of scale, and how it is ideally located as far as export logistics as well as the extraction process. * Why he expects full production in 2028 or 2029. * The political and legislative risk in Gabon, and why he thinks many investors are inflating the risk profile. The government has already been supportive to the company, and they are actively seeking foreign direct investment. * Funding the project with the project financing and a potential offtake agreement, and why he thinks they could begin operations without a massive amount of equity dilution.* The items that could break the bull case, and why a material increase in expected CAPEX and OPEX are at the top of the list.* A discussion on M&A, and the different parties that might be interested in the company. * Why the stock is probably in the process of turning over the shareholder base, and why he thinks it’s valued today at one third of where it should be. * Why he thinks that the Banio project could be producing 5M tons annually in 5 years time.* Book Recommendations: Fooled By Randomness & Antifragility by Nicholas Nassim Taleb & Margin Of Safety by Seth Klarman. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI wanted to do a video this week and get into some of the things that are looking interesting as we look ahead to 2026. I talked about a lot of the different commodities, sector ETFs (including South America), and other commodities that I have started to look at, including tin and lithium. Also, I am having Ross Jennings on the podcast tomorrow to talk Millennial Potash and hopefully dig even deeper, so if you have questions or topics that you want to hear about, feel free to leave a comment or send a message. I think it’s going to be interesting for anyone on the fence on that one.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Melody Wright on the podcast to talk about all things real estate. We got into the changing demographic trends, institutional and foreign ownership of real estate, and the different narratives around equities, AI spending, and real estate. We also talked about the privatization of Fannie Mae and homebuilder sector, among other things. For anyone interested in real estate, Melody is a must follow, and you can find her Substack below, or on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The problems with the 50 year mortgage idea.* Demographic trends that could have a huge impact on residential real estate, from generational turnover to immigration and potential remigration.* The crosscurrents between property taxes, insurance costs, and affordability.* Investor ownership and foreign ownership of residential real estate, and the problems with government interfering with the real estate market by subsidizing demand.* The generational divide topic when it comes to real estate, and how it gets amplified by social media.* Why she doesn’t think Fannie Mae will be privatized, and the issues from the real estate market that could have an impact.* The issues with the homebuilders and the seller concessions they have been making to move inventory.* Her view on equities, the AI spending bubble, and how it is connected to real estate.* The narratives changing on real estate, AI, equities, and how markets have started to price in narrative changes faster.* Why she thinks we will return to historical norms for real estate prices relative to median income, and the price declines that have to happen to bring that back inline. * How some of the institutions are net sellers of residential real estate.* Rental prices, the overbuilding of multifamily apartments, and concessions on rent.* Where money could flow over the next couple years.* Her thoughts on crypto, and the issues there.* Book Recommendations: The Price Of Time by Ed Chancellor, Bubble In The Sun by Christopher Knowlton & The Swamp Peddlers by Jason Vuic. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had first time guest Scott Osheroff on the podcast. He runs Yurta Capital and is focused on overlooked opportunities in frontier markets and commodities. We talked about his experience traveling and investing all over the world, and why he thinks we will see a capital rotation to markets outside of the US. We also bounced around different commodities sectors, and which ones he finds appealing today. You can find him on Twitter and on Telegram. Podcast Summary* His experience in Asia, Eastern Europe, and looking at opportunities in overlooked areas of the market.* Why we in the early stages of a multi-year reallocation to the rest of the world, and why it doesn’t take much money to move markets outside of the US.* Getting more conservative and the potential for a market correction where correlations go to one.* The torque available in offshore oil services, and the outlook for the next several years.* Precious metals, and how investors all seem to focus on the same handful of ideas.* Avoiding the herd mentality when it comes to commodities.* Iron ore, coal, natural gas, and why the traditional hydrocarbons companies are near the top of his list right now.* The multi-speed global economy, and how different major economies and markets have different policies.* Chemicals, and why he’s paying attention to Chinese policy for that sector.* Agricultural companies, the importance of cheap natural gas for the sector, and why he thinks the gap between US natural gas prices and European prices will converge.* Why he thinks the dollar is in the early stages of a secular decline, and the potential for capital rotation.* Book Recommendations: Burmese Days by George Orwell, How Asia Works by Joe Studwell & Asian Godfathers by Joe Studwell.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Doug Casey on the podcast, and we got into a bunch of different topics across the commodities space and financial markets. We talked about the bubble forming in the tech sector with the AI capex boom, the future of the US, and other things to keep an eye on for the next several years. You can find Doug at The International Man, The Crisis Investing Substack, and the YouTube channel, Doug Casey’s Take. You can also find the new book that he released recently with Matt and Maxim Smith, The Preparation, which provides an alternative experience to college. It’s a book I wish I had when I was in high school. Podcast Summary* The last bull market for gold as it becomes a central part of the financial system again.* Silver and platinum as industrial metals, and why he’s bullish on those metals as well.* The bull case for energy, including uranium and coal.* The future of the US and the breakdown of our political system. * The AI capex boom, how it could change society, and how a lot of the technological developments are net negatives on society. * The different geopolitical brushfires around the world, from the Middle East, to Eastern Europe, Venezuela, and China. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI led off with a quick rant on Sable and the equity raise last week and the 10-Q, but I got into a couple things that I covered in my thread the other day. After that I got into commodities, money rotating into certain sectors, and a couple trades I’m looking at. Energy, OIH & SLB

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comAfter the recent talk of 50 year mortgages over the weekend, I wanted to share my thoughts on the topic and rant a little bit. I touched on a couple things there, and why it’s a bad idea that would only make the affordability issue worse in the long run. It sounds like the government shutdown might be coming to an end here soon, and there has also been talk of a so-called tariff dividend of $2,000. We will see if anything comes of it, but that would just be adding fuel to the inflationary fire. I also spent some time looking at several individual names, and where I might be looking at trades on those.

Yesterday Robert from Infranomics joined me on the podcast to talk about interest rates, financial plumbing, issues facing the US, and how to fix them. We got into the financialization of the economy, distortions in financial markets, and how inflation has eaten away at real wages and purchasing power. You can find Robert on Twitter and on YouTube, and for anyone who wants to dig into financial plumbing, he’s a must follow.Podcast Summary* SOFR spreads, liquidity issues, and what is going on in the repo markets. * His view on interest rates, how the US stacks up with Europe, and why he thinks there will be a debt crisis in France and the UK.* Wealth inequality being worse than it was in the Gilded Age, and the hyperfinancialization of the US economy.* Why he expects higher levels of inflation over the next decade, and why the dollar will be weak against gold and other currencies moving forward. * Wages, Social Security and Medicare, and Home Equity as a percent of GDP.* Hourly wages in gold terms, the loss of purchasing power over the last couple decades, and the increase in deaths of despair. * Potential fixes for the situation the US is in, including stricter immigration policy (legal and illegal), coordinating fiscal and monetary policy to compete with China, reindustrializing the economy, and ending the system that has prioritized capital over labor for the last 50 years. * Book Recommendation: Ages of Discord by Peter Turchin.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comThis will be a bit of a different format, but it’s something that I’m thinking about doing on a weekly basis. I kept it short and sweet this week, but I wanted to talk briefly about why I chose to sell puts on the newest holding instead of buying shares outright. I think it’s worth a look with the elevated implied volatility if you’re fine owning the stock.

Rudy Havenstein, a financial commentator known for his contrarian views on macroeconomics and the Fed, dives into pressing issues like inflation and market distortions. He critiques the Federal Reserve's influence on inequality and advocates for accountability in politics. Rudy discusses the cultural void left by collapsing traditional values and the rise of nontraditional politicians. He promotes free speech while cautioning against cancel culture and shares insights on investment strategies, emphasizing the risks of private credit and the need for clarity in markets.