Kontrarian Korner

On Friday I had Michael Every on the podcast to discuss recent geopolitical events and how he views the world. He’s a Global Strategist at Rabobank and a guest that I have been looking forward to chatting with for some time. We talked about important shifts happening right now in financial markets, US and China relations, and how he looks at the political changes and uncertainty around recent events. The best place to find him is on Twitter, where his daily updates on current events are a must read. Podcast Summary* The difference between Economic Policy and Economic Statecraft.* The shift from the primary focus being on what is good for financial markets to what is good for national security.* The state of play between the US and China, and the different pressure points for each country. * Some of the distortions in the Chinese economy, from real estate to manufacturing.* How the financial media distorts the narrative around recent events and tariffs. * The importance of asking the question: “What is GDP for?”* How Europe will be forced to make a decision between the US and China.* How some of the conflicts around the world might develop from here.* US shifting its focus to North and South America and China and pulling back from the Middle East and Europe. * Gold’s role moving forward, and why the US won’t abandon the dollar reserve currency.* How the US could approach a sovereign wealth fund.* Book Recommendation: Trade Wars Are Class Wars by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had PurpleDrinkCapital on the podcast to discuss what is going on recently in financial markets. We talked about the uncertainty around how things will play out, sentiment on equities and energy, several individual names he likes, and more. It was a fun conversation and his career experience gives him some insight on energy in particular. You can find him on Twitter, as well as on Substack below. Podcast Summary* His view on the overall market and the potential for a Zweig Breadth Thrust.* Overall sentiment on broader markets and the energy sector. * Shale in the Permian being in terminal decline, and why the case for a commodities bull market is growing stronger by the day.* Why he likes Antero Resources $AR in the natural gas producer space and Williams $WMB in the pipeline space.* Why Cheniere $LNG is his favorite in the LNG space. * Some thoughts on valuing commodity producers.* Why he is interested in Bitcoin and owns some Coinbase $COIN . * How financial markets are moving in light of recent geopolitical uncertainty. * How his career experience in the energy space gives him an advantage when looking at ways to express his views on certain commodities.* His views on stimulus on the horizon and how it ties into commodities (and not just gold).* Book Recommendation: The Harry Potter books. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last Friday I had Dexter White back on the podcast to talk about some of the recent chaos across the world. We talked about Trump’s first three months in office, the complicated geopolitical chessboard, and several different aspects of the media landscape. It was a great conversation and will definitely give listeners something to think about on a bunch of different topics. You can find Dexter on Twitter, as well as at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* Trump 2.0 and tariffs, and the intent behind the chaotic messaging. * The unified message of the media.* The importance of having certain industries in the US, from pharmaceuticals, steel, and military supply chains. * The other motivations behind Trump’s approach to dealing with China.* The Monroe Doctrine or Trumpian Manifest Destiny when it comes to the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada. * China’s dominance in drone technology and production. * The ZOPA (zone of potential agreement), the Art of the Deal, and Trump’s approach to negotiations with other countries. * The importance of the fentanyl crisis and the 100,000 people that die on an annual basis in the US. It’s not military tactics, but it is a form of warfare. * The propaganda and the signal to noise ratio when it comes to financial media.* The structural demand change in gold, what it means for the gold to silver ratio, and other commodities. * His thoughts on energy, from oil to gas to coal as well.* Book Recommendation: Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI want to wish everyone a Happy Easter and give everyone the podcast I promised on Thursday. I talked a bit about the geopolitical situation, the lack of certainty, a couple trends that I am certain about, and some thoughts on oil. Podcast Summary

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to discuss some of the recent chaos in financial markets. We covered some of the connections between moves in different currencies and markets, the geopolitical picture, commodities, and much more. I assume most of you are familiar with Tom’s work, but if not, you can find him at Gold Goats n’ Guns and on Twitter. Podcast Summary* Why his focus in the cross market moves was the rise in the Euro, British Pound, and the Canadian dollar, not the basis trade. * The problem with believing we have free markets.* How he sees things resolving between the US and China.* Waiting to see how Canadian elections turn out to see what Trump’s approach to Canada will look like. * One of the biggest advantages of the US is access to deep and liquid financial markets. * The progression of spending cuts and what they need to focus on, and why it’s important that they cut off the spending that was being used to try to destroy the US (USAID, NED, etc) first.* His view on commodities, from gold and silver, to oil and copper, and why recent moves there are selling a recession trade. He isn’t sure if that is real or not.* Gold as a safe haven and as the collateral for the future.* Bitcoin, and the Treasury demand driven by the growth of stablecoins. * Europe’s plans for Ukraine, and the progress of the talks between the US and Iran.* The difference between Trump the person and the character he plays on TV.* The budget resolution, the tax cuts, and tariffs, and how they are related.* Why he is bullish on the Russell 2000 longer term if Trump is successful on deregulation and tax cuts.* Book Recommendation: The Chronicles of Thomas Covenant by Stephen Donaldson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Thursday I had Russell Clark on the podcast for the first time for a great conversation. We talked about the US financial markets looking like an emerging market, how politics drives financial markets, and some of the things he’s watching right now. We also talked a little bit about the launch of his new fund, Brumby Capital. Podcast Summary* How the US is behaving like an emerging market, and how financial market correlations might change moving forward. * Why Treasuries aren’t behaving like a safe haven, and the path to double digit interest rates. * The political drive to rebalance financial markets. * Where things lead for private equity and private credit, especially with higher rates.* The trend of Gold vs. TLT and Gold vs. S&P 500.* Oil, LNG, and the interactions between the different parts of the energy sector.* Geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine, and some of the different powerful factions in each region. * Europe and Japan remilitarizing.* Securing supply lines and the change from globalization to deglobalization. * The complicated relationship between the US and China, and where things might be headed from here.* His plans for Brumby Capital, which he is in the process of launching now. * Book Recommendation: Age of Extremes by Eric Hobsbawm.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast again, this time to talk about what is going on between the US and China. It was a fascinating conversation on the tariff situation, what negotiations might look like, and where things might be headed. We also talked about gold, oil, the worst case scenarios for the US and China, and how they might meet in the middle. You can find Vince on his Substack as well as on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The tug of war between how the US debt markets need China, and how the Chinese economy needs the US consumer.* The breakdown in trust leading to a breakdown in credit.* Japan, China, and Europe all taking money out of US markets and bringing it home. * Everyone heading for the exit at the same time, US funds and institutions trying to front run it, and you see those moves in the currencies, especially yesterday. “It’s an FX operation. Are they doing it all at once? No.”* Tariffs are a tool to accelerate some of the changes that need to happen.* How the correlations between different asset classes are changing.* Gold as the pet rock, and the potential for stagflation.* How the China and US situation is likely to play out. * The worst case scenario for each country and working back towards the middle for a potential resolution. * For the US, the worst case scenario is the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.* For China, that is the punitive tariffs and a Chinese Great Depression. * Trump talking about tax cuts and the timeline for resolving things with China.* The nuclear option for China being a return to the gold standard.* The nuclear option for the US is to start a war. * The potential for a financial iron curtain between the East and the West. * What a resolution between China and the US means for oil. * Book Recommendation: The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mel Mattison on to talk about the recent chaos in financial markets and Trump’s tariff plan. We talked about how expects a resolution in the next six to eight weeks on tariff negotiations (maybe sooner), and why China is the target of Trump’s recent announcement. We also covered the crosscurrents facing the administration as far as the financial system and geopolitics. It was a great conversation on what is going on today in financial markets, and should provide some perspective on where things might be going. You can find Mel on Twitter, and he’s worth a follow for anyone interested in finance. Podcast Summary* Why he was expecting a pullback in the S&P 500 at the start of the year, why he thinks the selloff could continue into May depending on the path of the tariff talks, and how a rally could be coming by year end. * The crosscurrents of dealing with the debt refinance, tax receipts from capital gains, deficits, and inflation. * Why the US needs to have a more robust manufacturing base, and how policymakers might pursue that objective.* Why China is in the crosshairs of Trump’s recent tariff announcements. * Triffin’s Dilemma, and the tug of war between the US dollar being the world reserve currency and trade deficits, and the move towards a neutral reserve asset like gold.* Why real wages is a focus of Scott Bessent and the Trump administration, and why they might tolerate more inflation. * His thoughts on the commodities complex.* The difference between sharp selloffs and long drawn out bear markets, and what that means for the recovery period. * Why he isn’t expecting the worst case scenario of a Great Depression type event.* The geopolitical chessboard, and why he is more worried about the Middle East than the conflict in Ukraine. * Trump as a showman, and why he will probably decide he doesn’t want to be Herbert Hoover. * Why he cautions against a doomsday perspective when it comes to markets. * Book Recommendations: Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed & Quoz by Mel Mattison.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Friday afternoon I had Dylan Marrello back on the podcast for a Happy Hour podcast. We talked about the bloodbath in financial markets on Thursday and Friday, the broad uncertainty around tariffs, and wild swings in the market. He pointed out that Trump Derangement Syndrome might potentially impacting investor’s negative sentiment and the extreme fear that the sky is falling after a couple of rough days. We also talked about the misaligned incentives that have turned 5-6 months into a “long-term” time horizon. I picked his brain on several different sectors, from offshore oil services, to a couple deep value opportunities in the Cannabis sector (one of which is a net-net). He also talked about the potential for changing regulations in the broadcasting sector and the torque that some stocks offer there. He laid out the bull case for his favorite microcap real estate play, and the advantages that America still has, despite some of the recent chaos. There is a lot of uncertainty, shifting global alliances, and no one knows what the next 6-12 months hold. We also got into some of the problems facing the West, and Wall Street’s parasitic relationship with the rest of the US. He’s still optimistic about the US, and pointed out that Trump’s approach to tariffs has been intentionally chaotic, and why the status quo needs to be broken. Trump is the catalyst for change. Something was going to break at some point anyway, and he thought it’s a good sign that someone is actually thinking out further than a year into the future. It was a great conversation that will have a little bit of something for everybody.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Friday I had Roger LaFontaine (an alias) on the podcast to talk about what is going on in Canada right now. He writes a Substack called Nugget Capital Partners, which is focused on opportunities in Canadian markets, primarily in the Energy and Real Estate sectors. We talked about the upcoming election in Canada, his thoughts on different stocks in Canadian markets, and what he looks for when evaluating those opportunities. He is an entertaining follow on Twitter, especially if you have any interest in the energy sector. Podcast Summary* What he sees for the upcoming Canadian election, and why he doesn’t think we will see a conservative majority even if Polievre wins. * Why Trump is good for the Canadian energy sector. * “Carbon Tax Carney” dropping the consumer carbon tax but not the industrial carbon tax.* The “in house algo” at Nugget Capital Partners* The total shift in Canadian politics in recent weeks.* The potential to revive the Keystone XL pipeline project. * What he looks for in Canadian energy companies, and his thoughts on buybacks vs. dividends. * Why he’s not a fan of the Whitecap and Veren deal.* Why he likes Strathcona Resources, Precision Drilling, and Total Energy Services as three of his favorites in the Canadian energy space right now.* Canadian real estate, and why there is a big valuation gap between public and private commercial real estate.* Why retail, multifamily, and industrial sectors look attractive right now.* Why Dream Residential, H&R REIT, and Nexus Industrial are three of his favorites in the Canadian real estate sector.* Book Recommendation: The Frackers by Gregory Zuckerman.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe