Last week I had PauloMacro and Rudy Havenstein on the podcast to discuss financial markets, financial nihilism, and the generational divide. The financial nihilism and generational divide are two big picture topics that I have started to spend more time thinking about in recent weeks. Paulo’s recent post on financial nihilism is why I wanted to record this episode in the first place. If you can make it through Paulo’s opening monologue without wanting to listen to the rest of the podcast, I will be shocked. Podcast Summary* A “turducken of market disasters” coming together, with shades of the 1970s inflation and concentration reminiscent of the Nifty 50.* How income inequality has only gotten worse, and real wages have stagnated for decades.* The Boomer generation’s responsibility in the increasing wealth inequality.* We are watching a pessimistic bubble for the first time in history (this is where the nihilism comes from, and is something Dave Collum has talked about as well).* What if this isn’t the end of max stupid, what if this is just the beginning? We recorded on Friday, before the launch of Trump coin, so Paulo’s question looks prescient.* The long term impact of entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.* How the passive market has created the kindling for some potential fireworks. No one is sure if 2025 is the year, but I think we were all on the same page that it is a matter of when, not if for passive investing.* Why Paulo and Rudy are both watching the bond market, and why the move higher in yields might not be over.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to discuss his 2024 Year In Review. It’s a must read every year, and goes deep into several different rabbit holes. It’s always entertaining, just like his Twitter. We had a wide ranging conversation on everything going on in the world today, from the LA fires, Trump and geopolitics, to health and financial markets.Podcast Summary* The LA fires and what the aftermath might look like.* The state of the insurance industry and private equity.* America’s lack of a frontier, a culture of honor, and the return of frontier justice. * His thoughts on the end of NATO, the EU, and what’s going on in the world.* The connection between vaccines and autism, and ivermectin and fenbendazole for as a cancer treatment.* Obesity, Ozempic, poison in the food, and shifts in what is viewed as healthy.* The false reads from the economic dashboard, from inflation, to jobs, to GDP.* Bitcoin as the shiny object, quantum computing, and his questions on it being a sustainable asset class.* The path of creative destruction in technology.* His views on energy, abiotic oil, and other commodities like platinum and gold.* The long drawn out correction that he thinks is coming, comparing the concentration in the Mag 7 to the Nifty 50. * Book Recommendation: The Indispensable Right by Johnathan TurleyKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had Yuri Bezmenov on the podcast to talk about a variety of topics that have had an impact on the US, from the changes in academia, to DEI, and other divides we see here in the US. It was a fun and wide ranging conversation on some of the things that have become more obvious to me in recent years. You can find his Substack below, and you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The change in the prestige of a college education, and the change in attitude towards higher education from younger generations.* The best way to push back against the DEI agenda.* The divide between different generations, and the different stereotypes of each generation.* The death of mainstream media.* The solution to the male/female divide in the West.* The Make America Healthy Again movement, and the potential for RFK to make changes to the food and medical system.* Immigration, and the potential for positive changes on that front.* Book Recommendation: The Man Who Stayed Behind by Sidney Rittenberg.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last Friday, I had my first return guest on the podcast, Tom Luongo, back to discuss what is going on in the world after Trump’s recent election. We touched on a wide variety of topics, from the mainstream (or undead) media, to geopolitics and the different competing factions around the world, along with oil and bitcoin. You should all go check out Tom’s newsletter/Patreon at Gold, Goats n’ Guns, and you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The waning relevance of the media, especially as the Boomer generation passes on and they lose their audience. * The importance of the election, Trump’s cabinet picks, and his questions on a couple of the closer Senate races. * The difference between “Joe” and “Biden”.* The different generations and their attitudes on the current system through the lens of the Fourth Turning.* Oil, OPEC, and why we aren’t at peak oil.* The importance of a Treasury and Fed that have a different focus than they did over the last couple decades.* Bitcoin increasing in price, leading to an increased supply of stablecoins (like Tether), which leads to increased demand for Treasuries.* Getting rid of government universal basic income by cutting some of the government jobs that are a drain on taxes and the economy. * Why he expects capital to keep coming into the United States.* What he’s focused on for the rest of 2024, and leading into the inauguration. * The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldridge by Philip K. Dick.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday morning I had Erik from Your Weekend Reading on the podcast for a great and wide ranging discussion. We talked about everything from bonds and changing market regimes to inflation and Project Zimbabwe, which ties in with his experience investing in Africa. You can also find him on Twitter here.Podcast Summary* We talked about a regime change in the market, and what it might look like for different asset classes over the next several years.* His thoughts on bonds, debt levels, positioning, and why the yield on the 10 year could go to 6%.* Why he thinks the Fed jumped the gun by cutting rates.* The psychology of inflation becoming embedded, and why wage inflation is here to stay.* His thoughts on gold, central bank buying, the miners, energy, and other commodities.* How the day to day adoption of Bitcoin over the last decade has been disappointing for bulls, despite his view that it is a good store of value. * Why he is bullish on natural gas, and why he went from bullish on oil to a more mixed view recently.* His thoughts on Trump potentially being able to calm things down in Ukraine and/or the Middle East.* The rapid developments and technology advancements in the Chinese manufacturing economy. * Why he finds China a very attractive pond to fish in with cheap valuations and bombed out sentiment.* He also makes a compelling case for the European banks.* Why Trump 2.0 and tariffs might not be able to make American manufacturing great again. * Book Recommendations: Antifragile & The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving last week, but I wanted to put out a short video this morning. I got a couple questions on Calumet $CLMT with the DOE loan and dilution, so I wanted to follow up after my recent podcast with Karst Research and Jake LaMotta. It won’t be a full breakdown, so you should watch that first if you’re interested. I also wanted to briefly cover the latest with Sable Offshore $SOC . The Fire Marshal updated their Pathways for Restarting CA-324 and CA-325 website, but it looks like they aren’t going to step in with the whole CCC circus. Whatever happens, I think we will get some clarity on what path Sable will take in the next couple weeks. I wrapped up by talking briefly about Peabody Energy’s $BTU and their acquisition, and why my attitude towards that one is starting to change. I have been busy pulling double duty at the family business recently, but I do have some good podcast guests lined up for the next couple weeks, so keep an eye out for those. I also have a couple new ideas I have been digging into recently, and I’ll share those when I have done enough research.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had two guests on the podcast, Karst Research and Dylan (aka Jake LaMotta, aka Raging Bull Capital), to talk about Calumet $CLMT . You should all go check out their Substacks below. You can also find them on Twitter (here and here). It was an interesting conversation on a stock that has several catalysts lined up in the near future. We talked about the DOE loan that is expected to close before year end, the different segments of the business, and more.Podcast Summary* We talked about the 30,000 foot view of Calumet, which has transitioned from a busted MLP with no dividend to a C-corp earlier this year.* The terms of the DOE loan, which was announced in October, and expected to close by year end. * Why Karst views the DOE loan as a balance sheet event, and the deleveraging and reduction in interest expense that will happen as a result of the loan.* How Dylan thinks the DOE loan derisks the business for the next couple years.* What SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) expansion might look like for Calumet.* I play devil’s advocate questioning the long-term viability of SAF.* Their thoughts on what a potential monetization event might look like (and its timing), whether it’s an IPO of the Montana Renewables segment, or a sale of one of the other segments.* If there are any risks to Calumet from the incoming Trump administration.* Book Recommendation from Dylan: How The World Really Works by Vaclav Smil.* Book Recommendation from Karst: Throne of Grace by Bob Drury & Tom Clavin.DisclaimerAll three of us currently have an investment in Calumet. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Will Tanner from The American Tribune on the podcast to discuss Rhodesia, Ronald Reagan, and the future of America and Britain. You can also find Will and his viral threads on Rhodesia on Twitter. It was an interesting and wide ranging conversation on Rhodesia, its parallels to the current state of the US, and other topics that will certainly give listeners food for thought.Podcast Summary* We talked about the history of Rhodesia and how it went from the breadbasket of Africa to killing elephants for food after a drought.* How sanctions from the US, UK, and the UN led to the end of Rhodesia. * He talked about their successful propertied voting system (without apartheid like South Africa) that incentivizes the right things from the populace, and only gives a say to those with a stake in the system. * His view on the Cold War, and why it wasn’t really about a fight between freedom and democracy against communism.* His thoughts on egalitarianism, disparate impact, and other questionable policies of the West.* We also talked about Ronald Reagan, and how his policies led to some of the problems we have today with illegal immigration, no fault divorce, and growth of the national debt (and also immunity for vaccine manufacturers).* The issues with birthright citizenship.* Private equity strip mining the middle class, and their impact on the healthcare industry. * His thoughts on the future of the US, and what could be done to fix things here.* Mass immigration, and how policies could be shifted to encourage self-deportation.* His thoughts on the state of Britain, and the punitive inheritance taxes. * Book Recommendation: 1913 by Charles Emmerson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Sal Mercogliano on the podcast to talk about all things shipping. His YouTube channel, What’s Going On With Shipping, is a great resource to stay up to date on all of the things that have an impact on the sector. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the incoming Trump administration and some of the different shipping sectors.Podcast Summary* The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump Administration, particularly the impact on China. We also talked about how tariffs might implemented, and why tariffs scaling in is better than implementing a large tariff all at once.* Why he’s watching the Cabinet selections to see how it might have an impact on the business environment.* He discussed why he favors the tanker sector, the potential impact of sanctions against Iran, and how a resolution in Ukraine could change things for tankers.* Containers, $ZIM , and what might happen if/when the conflict in the Red Sea with the Houthis stops. * Dry Bulk, and how he views it as a precursor for what’s going on in the economy. We also talked about bauxite growth, and the potential impact of other dry bulk commodities. * The current state of the shipyards and order books, including longer build times, the impact of changing emissions standards, and scrapping potential.* LNG, the US permitting export capacity with a new administration, and the issue of LNG competing with pipeline gas.* China’s outsized impact on the shipbuilding sector. The country builds over half of the world’s ships, with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation accounting for ~20%.* Book Recommendations: Maritime Economics by Martin Stopford & The Box by Marc Levinson. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

My guest on today’s podcast is E.M. Burlingame, a former Green Beret with wide variety of career experiences in different parts of the financial world. I first heard him on The Coffee And A Mike Podcast, but we had a great discussion on the results of the Presidential Election and everything else that is going on in the world right now. You can also find him on Twitter, or his books on Amazon.Podcast Summary* The results of the Presidential Election, and what might happen as Trump transitions into office.* How Europe is dying, and his thoughts on the European Union.* The different factions of power (the mob state, the Praetorian system) and the princes/aristocrats fighting behind the scenes. * Why some of the European factions are pushing for escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East.* The contrast of the land powers in Eurasia (China, Russia, and Iran), and the sea powers (US and the West).* Student loan forgiveness, and the fall of the academic system in the US.* The importance of quality collateral in the current financial system.* Real estate speculation and immigration’s impact on the real estate market.* Market dynamics around passive investing and high frequency trading.* The multiple financial rug pulls of the different generations here in the US.* What he’s watching for the Trump presidency and beyond.* The aristocracy turning into a noble class, and why we are the early days of a new feudal system.* Book Recommendation (His Book): The Eternal War by EM Burlingame.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe