Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Doug Casey on the podcast, and we got into a bunch of different topics across the commodities space and financial markets. We talked about the bubble forming in the tech sector with the AI capex boom, the future of the US, and other things to keep an eye on for the next several years. You can find Doug at The International Man, The Crisis Investing Substack, and the YouTube channel, Doug Casey’s Take. You can also find the new book that he released recently with Matt and Maxim Smith, The Preparation, which provides an alternative experience to college. It’s a book I wish I had when I was in high school. Podcast Summary* The last bull market for gold as it becomes a central part of the financial system again.* Silver and platinum as industrial metals, and why he’s bullish on those metals as well.* The bull case for energy, including uranium and coal.* The future of the US and the breakdown of our political system. * The AI capex boom, how it could change society, and how a lot of the technological developments are net negatives on society. * The different geopolitical brushfires around the world, from the Middle East, to Eastern Europe, Venezuela, and China. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI led off with a quick rant on Sable and the equity raise last week and the 10-Q, but I got into a couple things that I covered in my thread the other day. After that I got into commodities, money rotating into certain sectors, and a couple trades I’m looking at. Energy, OIH & SLB

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comAfter the recent talk of 50 year mortgages over the weekend, I wanted to share my thoughts on the topic and rant a little bit. I touched on a couple things there, and why it’s a bad idea that would only make the affordability issue worse in the long run. It sounds like the government shutdown might be coming to an end here soon, and there has also been talk of a so-called tariff dividend of $2,000. We will see if anything comes of it, but that would just be adding fuel to the inflationary fire. I also spent some time looking at several individual names, and where I might be looking at trades on those.

Yesterday Robert from Infranomics joined me on the podcast to talk about interest rates, financial plumbing, issues facing the US, and how to fix them. We got into the financialization of the economy, distortions in financial markets, and how inflation has eaten away at real wages and purchasing power. You can find Robert on Twitter and on YouTube, and for anyone who wants to dig into financial plumbing, he’s a must follow.Podcast Summary* SOFR spreads, liquidity issues, and what is going on in the repo markets. * His view on interest rates, how the US stacks up with Europe, and why he thinks there will be a debt crisis in France and the UK.* Wealth inequality being worse than it was in the Gilded Age, and the hyperfinancialization of the US economy.* Why he expects higher levels of inflation over the next decade, and why the dollar will be weak against gold and other currencies moving forward. * Wages, Social Security and Medicare, and Home Equity as a percent of GDP.* Hourly wages in gold terms, the loss of purchasing power over the last couple decades, and the increase in deaths of despair. * Potential fixes for the situation the US is in, including stricter immigration policy (legal and illegal), coordinating fiscal and monetary policy to compete with China, reindustrializing the economy, and ending the system that has prioritized capital over labor for the last 50 years. * Book Recommendation: Ages of Discord by Peter Turchin.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comThis will be a bit of a different format, but it’s something that I’m thinking about doing on a weekly basis. I kept it short and sweet this week, but I wanted to talk briefly about why I chose to sell puts on the newest holding instead of buying shares outright. I think it’s worth a look with the elevated implied volatility if you’re fine owning the stock.

Yesterday I had Rudy Havenstein back on the podcast to discuss what is going on in the world, markets, and of course, we also talked about inflation. He’s full of a bunch of interesting information, anecdotes, and stories on financial markets, politics, and current events. Listeners will learn a thing or two and be entertained along the way, but for anyone interested in the intersection of markets, politics, inflation, and the Federal Reserve, this one’s for you. You can find Rudy’s Substack below, and he is one of the most entertaining follows on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Inflation, and the difference between cost levels and the rate of change.* Why there is nothing capitalist about the Federal Reserve, and how what happened in 2008 and 2020 led us to where we are today. * The political divide in the country, and why he criticizes both sides.* Why he expects we will see more politicians like Mamdani.* The religious void in the culture that people are looking to fill, and the campaign to destroy the nuclear family.* Why he is a free speech absolutist. * Private credit, real estate, and the problems with reaching for yield. * Foreign influence over US politics, and how most Americans are anti-war.* Why he doesn’t see a lot of opportunities in the market today.* Why the market won’t go back to allocating capital based on valuations and fundamentals until you put a leash on The Fed and get rid of the notion of “Too Big To Fail.”* Book Recommendation: Weird Scenes Inside The Canyon by David McGowan.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Maxim Benjamin Smith on the podcast to give us the firsthand account he has had over the last couple years as the test subject for The Preparation. We talked about some of his best and worst experiences from his travels, what he will be doing next, and how it has shaped his view of the world. We also talked about where he thinks the world is headed over the next couple decades, and why young men are becoming more right wing. It was a little different from my typical podcast, but if you happen to have boys in middle school or high school and are open minded about alternatives to college, you will enjoy this one. Podcast Summary* The story behind developing The Preparation.* Some of the best experiences he has had, from sailing in the Falkland Islands to becoming an EMT and fighting fires.* His experience working for a junior exploration company in Nevada.* How his experiences have shaped his worldview.* Where he sees the US and the world heading over the next couple decades.* Why young men are becoming more right wing. * The cultural issues facing the West and societal decay.* Book Recommendation: Education of a Wandering Man by Louis L’Amour.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had my friend, Dan Herrin, on the podcast. He’s a longtime private investigator, one of the best storytellers I have met, and has an interesting lens on financial markets. I was able to get a couple stories from his career (he’s got a ton), as well as some anecdotes from his current roadtrip. We also talked about his view on precious metals, energy, and why he’s starting to get optimistic about the path of things here in the US. It was a little bit different conversation from my typical podcast, but I’ll definitely have him back on in the future to get more stories out of him. You can find on Twitter, where he’s a very entertaining follow. Podcast Summary* A couple stories from his time as a private investigator, and several anecdotes from his current roadtrip, and how they tie into financial markets.* His view on precious metals, why he thinks it might be different this time, and how he’s playing it.* Why he’s keeping an eye on oil for 2026, why he thinks things get worse before they get better, and the next leg of his road trip taking him to the Bakken.* The Fourth Turning, the state of the US, and why he’s starting to get optimistic from his interactions with younger generations. * The shift from B.C. (Before COVID) to A.C. (After COVID), and how large narratives have been shifting in recent years. * Book Recommendation: The Road Less Traveled by M. Scott Peck.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to talk about everything going on the world of markets, current events, and we even got into a couple of our favorite rabbit holes. He doesn’t pull any punches and as always, he is very entertaining. Our conversation will have something for everyone, and if you want to find Dave, you can find him on Twitter. Podcast Summary* What he’s seeing in markets, and where he’s actually bullish (precious metals and platinum in particular).* How the current situation is different from past euphorias, and why he calls it a complacency bubble.* The problems that we will see in private equity and private credit.* Passive investment and markets no longer being a price discovery mechanism.* His thoughts on Charlie Kirk, and why he has questions around the official story.* The situation in Ukraine, and why it might continue to drag on longer than we expected.* Israel, the Middle East, and the USS Liberty. * The AI race with China, the circular AI economy, and the Ponzi feel to stablecoins.* The problem with the government taking equity stakes in companies.* Book Recommendation: The Wisdom Of Crowds by James Surowiecki & The Great Courses Series.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Matt Smith, founder of Crisis Investing and co-author of The Preparation, sheds light on innovative alternatives to college education. He discusses the significance of intergenerational relationships and the looming monetary reset in the U.S. The conversation delves into the implications of AI on the job market, the potential for societal upheaval, and the pivotal return of gold in finance. Additionally, Smith critiques passive investing's market distortions and shares his cautious outlook on cryptocurrencies, underscoring the need for adapted strategies in a rapidly changing economic landscape.