Kontrarian Korner #59 - Trader Ferg

Yesterday I had Trader Ferg on the podcast again to talk about his big picture view of financial markets. We got into his favorite commodities, his high level thoughts on which subsectors are the most attractive, and his view of the big picture from 30,000 feet. It was a great conversation, and if you aren’t already familiar with his work on Substack, you should check it out below.

Podcast Summary

* Why he has the most conviction on oil long-term, some of the information sources he follows, and what subsectors he favors.

* His view on the important question for energy investors, which is “Can the Permian Basin ramp production again, and if it can, how much production can they bring online?”

* Platinum group metals, including rhodium, and Anglo selling the bottom again by spinning out Valterra.

* Gold to oil, and why this time might be different if gold is used to recapitalize the system.

* What he sees in the coal sector, the royalty regime in Australia, and why he’s partial to met coal names in the US.

* Uranium and the potential for a short squeeze.

* We went into a couple other metals, and he laid out why he is very bullish on tin and not all that excited about copper.

* Shipping and shipyards, and why you have to be careful in shipyards with China’s dominant position in shipbuilding.

* Debt, deficits, TLT, and why all roads lead to inflation.

* Why he isn’t as bullish on natural gas as other commodities.

* Battling the psychological ups and downs in markets and the difficulty of having a long-term view with the short-termism that dominates financial markets today.

* Book Recommendations: House of Huawei by Eva Dou & Meditations by Marcus Aurelius

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