Kontrarian Korner Kontrarian Korner #71 - Roberto Rios
Sep 23, 2025
Roberto Rios, known as The Peruvian Bull, is a macro commentator and author who dives deep into economic trends. He discusses the Fed's policies and the impacts of stealth QE on the Treasury market, revealing how stablecoins create pressure for shorter maturities. Rios shares insights on precious metals, emphasizing gold's role in anticipating QE. He critiques the unaffordability of real estate and the implications of institutional ownership. Lastly, he addresses asset inflation driven by liquidity and presents a unique perspective on Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.
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Liquidity Extends Beyond Rate Cuts
- The Fed's rate cuts are only one part of liquidity; stealth QE instruments expanded since COVID.
- Repo, reverse repo, BTFP and regulatory shifts quietly alter liquidity beyond the fed funds rate.
Regulation Drove Massive Treasury Demand
- Post-2014 regulation pushed money market funds and banks into treasuries, creating massive short-end demand.
- That regulatory demand now accounts for trillions supporting the Treasury market structure.
Taper Masked With Targeted Long‑End Buying
- The Fed's taper hid net purchases of long-term Treasuries, effectively running secret QE on long maturities.
- They sold bills while keeping 10–30 year holdings net positive to stabilise long-end demand.
