Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had the pleasure of chatting with Doomberg for part 3 of my podcast series on oil. We bounced around a bunch of different topics, from geopolitics and Trump, to his view on the Permian Basin and OPEC, to other sources of oil supply like the Vaca Muerta in Argentina. It was a great follow up to the first two parts of the series. Podcast Summary* The geopolitical big picture, from sanctions to Canadian energy tariffs, and why the US and Canada will probably cut a deal.* His overall view that energy markets well supplied today.* Why natural gas pipeline capacity is the bottleneck for Permian oil production in his view. * His thoughts on the Vaca Muerta in Argentina, and other potential sources of oil supply growth in coming years. * Why peak cheap oil is a myth, and why the gold to oil ratio will probably continue to go higher. * Why oil prices going up in dollar terms is more of a reflection of dollar devaluation than oil getting scarcer or more expensive. * His thoughts on the long term future of OPEC, US refining capacity, and LNG.* Europe and Germany’s energy policy when it comes to hydrocarbons versus renewables. * What he would look for to potentially get more bullish on oil prices, from a flush and collapse of OPEC, to geopolitical dislocations (which admittedly would be short-term).* Which energy subsectors he would focus on for opportunities. * The impact of AI on energy demand growth.* His brief thoughts on abiotic oil versus fossil fuels.* Book Recommendation: The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas GoldKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Wilson from HFI Research joined me yesterday for part 2 of my series on oil, and we had a great conversation on a variety of topics. We talked about his outlook for oil and gas in 2025, what he sees for US production and OPEC spare capacity in 2025, and some of the equities that he finds attractive today. You can also find him on Twitter where he posts some of his work on oil and gas.Podcast Summary* His general outlook for oil and natural gas in 2025.* OPEC spare capacity in 2025.* Why LNG is the main demand driver long term for increased natural gas demand, and why projections for power burn demand might be off.* His issues with EIA numbers, and how they adjust numbers to try to get an accurate read on US oil production.* Their projections for US production in 2025, and the gap between their numbers and consensus.* How the Permian Basin is in the process of peaking, and why he thinks there will be a structural supply deficit for oil by the end of the decade.* His thoughts on Trump as a wild card, but why his second term will look different for energy than his first term. * Why a SPR refill could be a big tailwind IF it happens.* His view on sanctions or tariffs having an impact on oil markets. * His thoughts on some specific Canadian equities, some of the Permian producers, as well as a special situation they’re watching.* What he looks for in companies when it comes to buybacks and capital returns.* Book Recommendations: The Courage To Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga & More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Today I’m excited to publish the first part of a podcast series on oil that I will be doing over the next couple weeks. Rob Connors, the author of The Crude Chronicles, joined me for part 1 to give us a historical look at where we are in the cycle today. He also provided a detailed slide deck that we went through, which I included below. If you want to follow him on Twitter, he also shares some of his interesting charts there.Podcast Summary* Why he thinks energy could be one of the best (if not the best) performing sector of the S&P 500 over the next decade, and could return 9-10% AFTER inflation.* The two main drivers for commodities cycles: liquidity or excessive money creation, and declining well productivity.* The six stages of the oil cycle, and why we are in stage 3 now.* How the incentive structures have changed for E&P management and what that means moving forward. * His thoughts on the political changes and why “Drill, baby, drill” won’t have a huge impact.* Why he thinks the floor for oil is somewhere in the low-60s.* Oil bull markets typically have three waves, and why offshore oilfield services typically perform best in the third wave.* His thoughts on the narrative around OPEC spare capacity, and why he is more focused on non-OPEC supply.* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had PauloMacro and Rudy Havenstein on the podcast to discuss financial markets, financial nihilism, and the generational divide. The financial nihilism and generational divide are two big picture topics that I have started to spend more time thinking about in recent weeks. Paulo’s recent post on financial nihilism is why I wanted to record this episode in the first place. If you can make it through Paulo’s opening monologue without wanting to listen to the rest of the podcast, I will be shocked. Podcast Summary* A “turducken of market disasters” coming together, with shades of the 1970s inflation and concentration reminiscent of the Nifty 50.* How income inequality has only gotten worse, and real wages have stagnated for decades.* The Boomer generation’s responsibility in the increasing wealth inequality.* We are watching a pessimistic bubble for the first time in history (this is where the nihilism comes from, and is something Dave Collum has talked about as well).* What if this isn’t the end of max stupid, what if this is just the beginning? We recorded on Friday, before the launch of Trump coin, so Paulo’s question looks prescient.* The long term impact of entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.* How the passive market has created the kindling for some potential fireworks. No one is sure if 2025 is the year, but I think we were all on the same page that it is a matter of when, not if for passive investing.* Why Paulo and Rudy are both watching the bond market, and why the move higher in yields might not be over.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to discuss his 2024 Year In Review. It’s a must read every year, and goes deep into several different rabbit holes. It’s always entertaining, just like his Twitter. We had a wide ranging conversation on everything going on in the world today, from the LA fires, Trump and geopolitics, to health and financial markets.Podcast Summary* The LA fires and what the aftermath might look like.* The state of the insurance industry and private equity.* America’s lack of a frontier, a culture of honor, and the return of frontier justice. * His thoughts on the end of NATO, the EU, and what’s going on in the world.* The connection between vaccines and autism, and ivermectin and fenbendazole for as a cancer treatment.* Obesity, Ozempic, poison in the food, and shifts in what is viewed as healthy.* The false reads from the economic dashboard, from inflation, to jobs, to GDP.* Bitcoin as the shiny object, quantum computing, and his questions on it being a sustainable asset class.* The path of creative destruction in technology.* His views on energy, abiotic oil, and other commodities like platinum and gold.* The long drawn out correction that he thinks is coming, comparing the concentration in the Mag 7 to the Nifty 50. * Book Recommendation: The Indispensable Right by Johnathan TurleyKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had Yuri Bezmenov on the podcast to talk about a variety of topics that have had an impact on the US, from the changes in academia, to DEI, and other divides we see here in the US. It was a fun and wide ranging conversation on some of the things that have become more obvious to me in recent years. You can find his Substack below, and you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The change in the prestige of a college education, and the change in attitude towards higher education from younger generations.* The best way to push back against the DEI agenda.* The divide between different generations, and the different stereotypes of each generation.* The death of mainstream media.* The solution to the male/female divide in the West.* The Make America Healthy Again movement, and the potential for RFK to make changes to the food and medical system.* Immigration, and the potential for positive changes on that front.* Book Recommendation: The Man Who Stayed Behind by Sidney Rittenberg.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last Friday, I had my first return guest on the podcast, Tom Luongo, back to discuss what is going on in the world after Trump’s recent election. We touched on a wide variety of topics, from the mainstream (or undead) media, to geopolitics and the different competing factions around the world, along with oil and bitcoin. You should all go check out Tom’s newsletter/Patreon at Gold, Goats n’ Guns, and you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The waning relevance of the media, especially as the Boomer generation passes on and they lose their audience. * The importance of the election, Trump’s cabinet picks, and his questions on a couple of the closer Senate races. * The difference between “Joe” and “Biden”.* The different generations and their attitudes on the current system through the lens of the Fourth Turning.* Oil, OPEC, and why we aren’t at peak oil.* The importance of a Treasury and Fed that have a different focus than they did over the last couple decades.* Bitcoin increasing in price, leading to an increased supply of stablecoins (like Tether), which leads to increased demand for Treasuries.* Getting rid of government universal basic income by cutting some of the government jobs that are a drain on taxes and the economy. * Why he expects capital to keep coming into the United States.* What he’s focused on for the rest of 2024, and leading into the inauguration. * The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldridge by Philip K. Dick.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday morning I had Erik from Your Weekend Reading on the podcast for a great and wide ranging discussion. We talked about everything from bonds and changing market regimes to inflation and Project Zimbabwe, which ties in with his experience investing in Africa. You can also find him on Twitter here.Podcast Summary* We talked about a regime change in the market, and what it might look like for different asset classes over the next several years.* His thoughts on bonds, debt levels, positioning, and why the yield on the 10 year could go to 6%.* Why he thinks the Fed jumped the gun by cutting rates.* The psychology of inflation becoming embedded, and why wage inflation is here to stay.* His thoughts on gold, central bank buying, the miners, energy, and other commodities.* How the day to day adoption of Bitcoin over the last decade has been disappointing for bulls, despite his view that it is a good store of value. * Why he is bullish on natural gas, and why he went from bullish on oil to a more mixed view recently.* His thoughts on Trump potentially being able to calm things down in Ukraine and/or the Middle East.* The rapid developments and technology advancements in the Chinese manufacturing economy. * Why he finds China a very attractive pond to fish in with cheap valuations and bombed out sentiment.* He also makes a compelling case for the European banks.* Why Trump 2.0 and tariffs might not be able to make American manufacturing great again. * Book Recommendations: Antifragile & The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving last week, but I wanted to put out a short video this morning. I got a couple questions on Calumet $CLMT with the DOE loan and dilution, so I wanted to follow up after my recent podcast with Karst Research and Jake LaMotta. It won’t be a full breakdown, so you should watch that first if you’re interested. I also wanted to briefly cover the latest with Sable Offshore $SOC . The Fire Marshal updated their Pathways for Restarting CA-324 and CA-325 website, but it looks like they aren’t going to step in with the whole CCC circus. Whatever happens, I think we will get some clarity on what path Sable will take in the next couple weeks. I wrapped up by talking briefly about Peabody Energy’s $BTU and their acquisition, and why my attitude towards that one is starting to change. I have been busy pulling double duty at the family business recently, but I do have some good podcast guests lined up for the next couple weeks, so keep an eye out for those. I also have a couple new ideas I have been digging into recently, and I’ll share those when I have done enough research.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had two guests on the podcast, Karst Research and Dylan (aka Jake LaMotta, aka Raging Bull Capital), to talk about Calumet $CLMT . You should all go check out their Substacks below. You can also find them on Twitter (here and here). It was an interesting conversation on a stock that has several catalysts lined up in the near future. We talked about the DOE loan that is expected to close before year end, the different segments of the business, and more.Podcast Summary* We talked about the 30,000 foot view of Calumet, which has transitioned from a busted MLP with no dividend to a C-corp earlier this year.* The terms of the DOE loan, which was announced in October, and expected to close by year end. * Why Karst views the DOE loan as a balance sheet event, and the deleveraging and reduction in interest expense that will happen as a result of the loan.* How Dylan thinks the DOE loan derisks the business for the next couple years.* What SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) expansion might look like for Calumet.* I play devil’s advocate questioning the long-term viability of SAF.* Their thoughts on what a potential monetization event might look like (and its timing), whether it’s an IPO of the Montana Renewables segment, or a sale of one of the other segments.* If there are any risks to Calumet from the incoming Trump administration.* Book Recommendation from Dylan: How The World Really Works by Vaclav Smil.* Book Recommendation from Karst: Throne of Grace by Bob Drury & Tom Clavin.DisclaimerAll three of us currently have an investment in Calumet. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe