Kontrarian Korner

On Thursday I had Russell Clark on the podcast for the first time for a great conversation. We talked about the US financial markets looking like an emerging market, how politics drives financial markets, and some of the things he’s watching right now. We also talked a little bit about the launch of his new fund, Brumby Capital. Podcast Summary* How the US is behaving like an emerging market, and how financial market correlations might change moving forward. * Why Treasuries aren’t behaving like a safe haven, and the path to double digit interest rates. * The political drive to rebalance financial markets. * Where things lead for private equity and private credit, especially with higher rates.* The trend of Gold vs. TLT and Gold vs. S&P 500.* Oil, LNG, and the interactions between the different parts of the energy sector.* Geopolitics in the Middle East and Ukraine, and some of the different powerful factions in each region. * Europe and Japan remilitarizing.* Securing supply lines and the change from globalization to deglobalization. * The complicated relationship between the US and China, and where things might be headed from here.* His plans for Brumby Capital, which he is in the process of launching now. * Book Recommendation: Age of Extremes by Eric Hobsbawm.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast again, this time to talk about what is going on between the US and China. It was a fascinating conversation on the tariff situation, what negotiations might look like, and where things might be headed. We also talked about gold, oil, the worst case scenarios for the US and China, and how they might meet in the middle. You can find Vince on his Substack as well as on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The tug of war between how the US debt markets need China, and how the Chinese economy needs the US consumer.* The breakdown in trust leading to a breakdown in credit.* Japan, China, and Europe all taking money out of US markets and bringing it home. * Everyone heading for the exit at the same time, US funds and institutions trying to front run it, and you see those moves in the currencies, especially yesterday. “It’s an FX operation. Are they doing it all at once? No.”* Tariffs are a tool to accelerate some of the changes that need to happen.* How the correlations between different asset classes are changing.* Gold as the pet rock, and the potential for stagflation.* How the China and US situation is likely to play out. * The worst case scenario for each country and working back towards the middle for a potential resolution. * For the US, the worst case scenario is the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.* For China, that is the punitive tariffs and a Chinese Great Depression. * Trump talking about tax cuts and the timeline for resolving things with China.* The nuclear option for China being a return to the gold standard.* The nuclear option for the US is to start a war. * The potential for a financial iron curtain between the East and the West. * What a resolution between China and the US means for oil. * Book Recommendation: The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mel Mattison on to talk about the recent chaos in financial markets and Trump’s tariff plan. We talked about how expects a resolution in the next six to eight weeks on tariff negotiations (maybe sooner), and why China is the target of Trump’s recent announcement. We also covered the crosscurrents facing the administration as far as the financial system and geopolitics. It was a great conversation on what is going on today in financial markets, and should provide some perspective on where things might be going. You can find Mel on Twitter, and he’s worth a follow for anyone interested in finance. Podcast Summary* Why he was expecting a pullback in the S&P 500 at the start of the year, why he thinks the selloff could continue into May depending on the path of the tariff talks, and how a rally could be coming by year end. * The crosscurrents of dealing with the debt refinance, tax receipts from capital gains, deficits, and inflation. * Why the US needs to have a more robust manufacturing base, and how policymakers might pursue that objective.* Why China is in the crosshairs of Trump’s recent tariff announcements. * Triffin’s Dilemma, and the tug of war between the US dollar being the world reserve currency and trade deficits, and the move towards a neutral reserve asset like gold.* Why real wages is a focus of Scott Bessent and the Trump administration, and why they might tolerate more inflation. * His thoughts on the commodities complex.* The difference between sharp selloffs and long drawn out bear markets, and what that means for the recovery period. * Why he isn’t expecting the worst case scenario of a Great Depression type event.* The geopolitical chessboard, and why he is more worried about the Middle East than the conflict in Ukraine. * Trump as a showman, and why he will probably decide he doesn’t want to be Herbert Hoover. * Why he cautions against a doomsday perspective when it comes to markets. * Book Recommendations: Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed & Quoz by Mel Mattison.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Friday afternoon I had Dylan Marrello back on the podcast for a Happy Hour podcast. We talked about the bloodbath in financial markets on Thursday and Friday, the broad uncertainty around tariffs, and wild swings in the market. He pointed out that Trump Derangement Syndrome might potentially impacting investor’s negative sentiment and the extreme fear that the sky is falling after a couple of rough days. We also talked about the misaligned incentives that have turned 5-6 months into a “long-term” time horizon. I picked his brain on several different sectors, from offshore oil services, to a couple deep value opportunities in the Cannabis sector (one of which is a net-net). He also talked about the potential for changing regulations in the broadcasting sector and the torque that some stocks offer there. He laid out the bull case for his favorite microcap real estate play, and the advantages that America still has, despite some of the recent chaos. There is a lot of uncertainty, shifting global alliances, and no one knows what the next 6-12 months hold. We also got into some of the problems facing the West, and Wall Street’s parasitic relationship with the rest of the US. He’s still optimistic about the US, and pointed out that Trump’s approach to tariffs has been intentionally chaotic, and why the status quo needs to be broken. Trump is the catalyst for change. Something was going to break at some point anyway, and he thought it’s a good sign that someone is actually thinking out further than a year into the future. It was a great conversation that will have a little bit of something for everybody.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Friday I had Roger LaFontaine (an alias) on the podcast to talk about what is going on in Canada right now. He writes a Substack called Nugget Capital Partners, which is focused on opportunities in Canadian markets, primarily in the Energy and Real Estate sectors. We talked about the upcoming election in Canada, his thoughts on different stocks in Canadian markets, and what he looks for when evaluating those opportunities. He is an entertaining follow on Twitter, especially if you have any interest in the energy sector. Podcast Summary* What he sees for the upcoming Canadian election, and why he doesn’t think we will see a conservative majority even if Polievre wins. * Why Trump is good for the Canadian energy sector. * “Carbon Tax Carney” dropping the consumer carbon tax but not the industrial carbon tax.* The “in house algo” at Nugget Capital Partners* The total shift in Canadian politics in recent weeks.* The potential to revive the Keystone XL pipeline project. * What he looks for in Canadian energy companies, and his thoughts on buybacks vs. dividends. * Why he’s not a fan of the Whitecap and Veren deal.* Why he likes Strathcona Resources, Precision Drilling, and Total Energy Services as three of his favorites in the Canadian energy space right now.* Canadian real estate, and why there is a big valuation gap between public and private commercial real estate.* Why retail, multifamily, and industrial sectors look attractive right now.* Why Dream Residential, H&R REIT, and Nexus Industrial are three of his favorites in the Canadian real estate sector.* Book Recommendation: The Frackers by Gregory Zuckerman.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Doug Terreson on the podcast to talk about energy as well as his book, Can’t Deny It. It was a great conversation on what has happened in the energy industry over the last 30 years, but we also discussed what he sees coming over the next several years for the sector. Doug had a long career on Wall Street as a renowned oil analyst at Morgan Stanley and Evercore, and is well known for several big calls over the last thirty years. He’s had a hard time retiring and is now on the boards of Phillips 66 $PSX , Third Gear Energy Fund, and Mississippi State University. There are some parallels today to where things were when Doug was making these calls, but if you’re interested in the recent history of the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find Can’t Deny It on Amazon, but you can also find Doug on his website or on Linkedin. Podcast Summary* His background and his career on Wall Street as an oil analyst, and why his best calls were not consensus at the time. * We talk about the book and the stories and setups behind his big calls.* “The Era of the Super Major”, and the consolidation of the industry that followed, which was the biggest restructuring of the industry since the breakup of Standard Oil.* “The Golden Age of Refining”, and what he was seeing with the refining sector in 2003 when he made the call. * His call on oil in 2008, and why he turned bullish on the broad energy sector in November 2020. * The shift in focus from production growth to capital allocation after the value destruction in the shale boom in the 2010s. * His thoughts on the Permian, OPEC, continued consolidation, coal, and the overall state of the energy market today.* Why he likes natural gas and refined products as two subsectors of the energy space over the next several years. * The focus on data centers and what it means for some of the energy companies moving forward. * Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, The Quest by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Stern Stewart.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had John Carter on the podcast to discuss Canadian politics, their upcoming election for Prime Minister, and his thoughts on the long-term future of Canada. We talked about some of the issues plaguing Canada today, and how he sees things playing out. It was also an excuse to talk with him about one of the most interesting Substack posts I have seen in the last year on Academia (linked below). We covered the issues that are already leading to problems, and talked about potential ways to change how universities fund themselves. You can find him below on Substack, but he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. Podcast Summary* The situation with the election for the Canadian Prime Minister later this year between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.* His thoughts on Trudeau’s disastrous reign as Prime Minister. * Maxime Bernier, and the People’s Party of Canada. * The Laurentian Elite’s influence on Canadian politics. * The state of Canadian media. * Canadian patriotism being defined by the fact that Canadians aren’t American, and the current wave of anti-American sentiment in Canada. * Alberta as a resource colony for the Eastern part of Canada. * Canada as an unstable coalition of provinces, and the long-term odds that the country breaks up.* The state of Academia, and the gap between men and women in universities. * Why changes in Academia will be faster than expected to the financial state of the average university, declining enrollment, and funding cuts. * Potential fixes for the academic system regarding student debt and endowments. * Book Recommendation: Caesar: Life of a Colossus by Adrian Goldsworthy.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I was able to get Chris MacIntosh on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. We talked about the different cycles that are all converging, the geopolitical situation in Europe, and opportunities in different commodities and South America. He’s very sharp on a bunch of different topics, from history to financial markets and everything in between. If you want to find his website or his Twitter, I have included links below. Chris’ TwitterCapitalist ExploitsPodcast Summary* The current geopolitical situation and the cyclical nature of history.* How different cycles are all lining up right now, from the debt cycle, the monetary cycle, the commodities cycle, and the 250 year revolutionary cycle.* The capital rotation on the horizon, and why gold is typically the first mover on that front.* How the economics in Europe are driving their decision making, why he thinks we will see capital flight out of Europe.* Capital controls, and how they are masked as regulatory controls in Europe. * Why he thinks we could be headed for stagflation and why he thinks this commodities cycle will be driven by supply constraints instead of booming demand.* Energy is typically the best performing asset in stagflationary cycles.* Why they are fairly heavy in the energy sector, which has some of the cheapest assets on the planet, particularly in the offshore oil services space. * How shipbuilders are another constraint worth watching.* The potential supply squeeze setting up in coal, and how coal has been starved of capital for years. * Why he is bullish on South America, and very bullish on Argentina in particular.* Avoiding bonds because of where we are in the cycle.* The formation of geopolitical blocks around the world.* Why Venezuela as the wild card in South America. * Trump’s negotiating style, and why Canada is in a weak position.* Book Recommendation: 180 Degrees: Unlearn The Lies You've Been Taught To Believe by Feargus O’Connor Greenwood.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Veles from RogueNews on the podcast, and it was a fascinating conversation. I listened to the whole thing a second time when I was editing it last night, and I am definitely looking forward to another conversation with Veles in the future. We talked about the realignment of the global economic and political system, why gold is flowing into the US again (just like it was before WWII), and some of the important technological trends to watch, from micro nuclear reactors to more efficient chips for artificial intelligence. You can find Veles on RogueNews on Rumble and YouTube.Podcast Summary* Zelensky’s disaster in the White House on Friday, and how he is just a puppet for other people behind the scenes.* The competing factions of power around the world, the future of the EU, and why certain factions in Europe need the war in Ukraine.* He lays out how a massive amount of money is being ripped out of the US federal government budget right now, and the connection to the urgent selling of real estate in the DC area.* The importance of gold, and why a large amount of physical gold was moved out of Europe into the US before WWII. * He lays out the reasons that gold is flowing into the US again today, and why the US is in the driver’s seat with our economy and political system, as the world starts to realign the economic and political system towards a multipolar world. * Salted gold reserves in China, and why that set off alarms in other countries. * The gold that is still on ships at the bottom of the ocean, and the disputes between different countries over it. * What he sees for the US power grid, and why a decentralized grid is an advantage for the US. * Why artificial intelligence is overhyped, and how power demand at the chip level could be reduced by 90-95% at the chip level by replacing floating point multiplication with integer addition. * The potential benefits of micro nuclear reactors and the downstream effects that could have on the US grid, and how micro nuclear reactors could benefit Europe.* Physical versus digital currency, and why he thinks we will eventually see a fully digital dollar.* Book Recommendations: The Most Dangerous Book In The World: 9/11 As Mass Ritual by S.K. Bain & Lucifer’s Banker by Brad Birkenfeld.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I was able to have John Polomny back on the podcast for another great conversation. We looked at some of the commodities sectors that both of us find interesting, and some of the opportunities in the market today. We also talked about the current geopolitical landscape and American culture. You can find his Substack below, but he is also a very entertaining follow on Twitter.Podcast Summary* Energy Return On Energy Invested, and how human society has never gone backwards as far as energy density.* Uranium, and the bombed out sentiment across the sector. * The opportunities in the oil & gas sector, including offshore oil services and Canadian oil sands.* Why he likes Glencore for his exposure to the coal sector. * His thoughts on the precious metals miners, the agricultural sector, and shipping. * The geopolitical landscape, from Trump and the Monroe Doctrine, to the return of realpolitik. * Immigration, the changing culture of the US, and what it means to be an American.* Book Recommendation: Santa Monica Partners Letters to Partners 1982-2021: 40 Years of Pink Sheet Investing by Lawrence Goldstein and Joseph Raymond.* He also recommended the Horizon Kinetics quarterly updates, which are definitely a must read. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe