Kontrarian Korner

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comAfter I recorded recently with Vince Lanci for a podcast on gold and the LBMA, we got to chatting about oil and I told him about Sable Offshore $SOC (I know that is probably shocking to some of you). He invited me to one of his Sunday conversations with some of his subscribers to discuss the situation, and where things stand today. If you guys need a fix on Sable or want to hear some of Vince’s questions, and my thoughts on Sable and oil in general, including some talk on the geopolitical side, feel free to watch. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Last week I had Matt Warder back on the podcast to give us an update on the coal sector. We talked about why it might be tough sledding in 2025 for coal stocks, the different companies in the US and Australia, and more. You can find Matt on Twitter and on Substack below. He is must follow for any investor interested in the coal sector.Podcast Summary* His broad outlook for thermal and metallurgical coal, the impact of LNG on thermal, and why he thinks 2025 is going to be the cycle trough for met coal.* The impact of potential tariffs on the coal sector.* His outlook for China, and the uncertainty on how a potential trade war could play out. * His view on some of the stocks in the sector, and the potential for further M&A.* We also looked briefly at some of the Australian stocks in the coal sector.* The bankruptcies of smaller players here in the US and what might happen to Corsa Coal after they filed for bankruptcy.* Where he’s looking for opportunities outside of the coal sector.* The potential for a coal powered data center in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming.* Book Recommendation: Buried Treasure by Otto Scott.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss what has been going on recently in the Gold market. We discussed what is going with the LBMA, COMEX, and the gold flowing into the United States. We also briefly covered his thoughts on silver, platinum, and oil. It was a fun conversation and should help listeners get a handle on what is going on with gold right now. You should all follow his Substack for his precious metals updates, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), COMEX, and the EFP (the exchange of futures for physical), and why gold is moving to the US.* Why the LBMA is in the process of slowly dying. * How tariffs would impact precious metals, and why the likelihood of tariffs on metals is extremely low (but not zero).* The so-called conspiracy theories around the LBMA.* The potential structure of a sovereign wealth fund. * Why he’s bullish on silver longer term, and why he thinks gold and silver might be decoupling. * Why platinum won’t be far behind if silver starts to run.* What he is watching with oil, and how it interacts with Trump’s geopolitical policy and tariffs.* Book Recommendation: The Prize by Daniel YerginKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Mike Farris come back on the podcast to discuss a wide variety of topics, from geopolitics, Trump 2.0, to the health of America, and the pros and cons of podcasting and content creation. He let me rant a bit a bit on some of the things going on today, but it was a fun conversation. You can find him on Twitter, YouTube, and all of the main podcast apps. Podcast Summary* His skepticism on the recent news around USAID, DOGE, and Elon Musk.* The Cabinet confirmations and what their impact might look like.* The Middle East, Israel, Ukraine, and the likelihood that Trump is able to resolve things.* Why Turkey is the wildcard in the Middle East. * The pace that things are moving and how it is hard to stay up to date.* Potential shifts in the Overton Window and why it might accelerate.* Lawfare and why he is pessimistic on the way things are going.* I rant on the state of food and health in America, and how it has deteriorated over the last several decades.* Ozempic side effects.* The state of corporate America and DEI.* The pros and cons of podcasting and content creation.* Book Recommendation: Gold Warriors by Sterling Seagrave.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I was able to talk with Tommy Deepwater, who has been following offshore oil services for more than a decade, with a focus on deepwater. We talked about some of the recent news from the sector, the trend of consolidation and M&A, and where the offshore cycle sits today. His Twitter is a must follow for his weekly updates on the sector. It was a great follow up to my podcast series on oil, and if you’re interested in offshore oilfield services, specifically deepwater, you will enjoy it.Podcast Summary* Noble $NE retiring a couple drillships, and why parts of the stacked fleet will continue to be retired.* Why higher spec stacked drillships are more likely to be reactivated.* Why he thinks Transocean $RIG has the highest quality active fleet.* The Transocean & Seadrill $SDRL M&A rumors, and future consolidation of the sector.* How the offshore bull cycle has been delayed, the picture for 2025/2026, and where day rates have to go to see new builds. * His thoughts on jackups, Borr Drilling $BORR , and their asset quality.* The OSV market, Tidewater $TDW , and how OSVs will benefit from increased activity in the deepwater sector. * Why he finds FPSOs (Floating Production Storage Offloading units) interesting.* Namibia, Colombia, and Suriname as potential geographies for new long-term drillship demand. * Book Recommendation: Chip War by Chris Miller.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had the pleasure of chatting with Doomberg for part 3 of my podcast series on oil. We bounced around a bunch of different topics, from geopolitics and Trump, to his view on the Permian Basin and OPEC, to other sources of oil supply like the Vaca Muerta in Argentina. It was a great follow up to the first two parts of the series. Podcast Summary* The geopolitical big picture, from sanctions to Canadian energy tariffs, and why the US and Canada will probably cut a deal.* His overall view that energy markets well supplied today.* Why natural gas pipeline capacity is the bottleneck for Permian oil production in his view. * His thoughts on the Vaca Muerta in Argentina, and other potential sources of oil supply growth in coming years. * Why peak cheap oil is a myth, and why the gold to oil ratio will probably continue to go higher. * Why oil prices going up in dollar terms is more of a reflection of dollar devaluation than oil getting scarcer or more expensive. * His thoughts on the long term future of OPEC, US refining capacity, and LNG.* Europe and Germany’s energy policy when it comes to hydrocarbons versus renewables. * What he would look for to potentially get more bullish on oil prices, from a flush and collapse of OPEC, to geopolitical dislocations (which admittedly would be short-term).* Which energy subsectors he would focus on for opportunities. * The impact of AI on energy demand growth.* His brief thoughts on abiotic oil versus fossil fuels.* Book Recommendation: The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas GoldKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Wilson from HFI Research joined me yesterday for part 2 of my series on oil, and we had a great conversation on a variety of topics. We talked about his outlook for oil and gas in 2025, what he sees for US production and OPEC spare capacity in 2025, and some of the equities that he finds attractive today. You can also find him on Twitter where he posts some of his work on oil and gas.Podcast Summary* His general outlook for oil and natural gas in 2025.* OPEC spare capacity in 2025.* Why LNG is the main demand driver long term for increased natural gas demand, and why projections for power burn demand might be off.* His issues with EIA numbers, and how they adjust numbers to try to get an accurate read on US oil production.* Their projections for US production in 2025, and the gap between their numbers and consensus.* How the Permian Basin is in the process of peaking, and why he thinks there will be a structural supply deficit for oil by the end of the decade.* His thoughts on Trump as a wild card, but why his second term will look different for energy than his first term. * Why a SPR refill could be a big tailwind IF it happens.* His view on sanctions or tariffs having an impact on oil markets. * His thoughts on some specific Canadian equities, some of the Permian producers, as well as a special situation they’re watching.* What he looks for in companies when it comes to buybacks and capital returns.* Book Recommendations: The Courage To Be Disliked by Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga & More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Today I’m excited to publish the first part of a podcast series on oil that I will be doing over the next couple weeks. Rob Connors, the author of The Crude Chronicles, joined me for part 1 to give us a historical look at where we are in the cycle today. He also provided a detailed slide deck that we went through, which I included below. If you want to follow him on Twitter, he also shares some of his interesting charts there.Podcast Summary* Why he thinks energy could be one of the best (if not the best) performing sector of the S&P 500 over the next decade, and could return 9-10% AFTER inflation.* The two main drivers for commodities cycles: liquidity or excessive money creation, and declining well productivity.* The six stages of the oil cycle, and why we are in stage 3 now.* How the incentive structures have changed for E&P management and what that means moving forward. * His thoughts on the political changes and why “Drill, baby, drill” won’t have a huge impact.* Why he thinks the floor for oil is somewhere in the low-60s.* Oil bull markets typically have three waves, and why offshore oilfield services typically perform best in the third wave.* His thoughts on the narrative around OPEC spare capacity, and why he is more focused on non-OPEC supply.* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Last week I had PauloMacro and Rudy Havenstein on the podcast to discuss financial markets, financial nihilism, and the generational divide. The financial nihilism and generational divide are two big picture topics that I have started to spend more time thinking about in recent weeks. Paulo’s recent post on financial nihilism is why I wanted to record this episode in the first place. If you can make it through Paulo’s opening monologue without wanting to listen to the rest of the podcast, I will be shocked. Podcast Summary* A “turducken of market disasters” coming together, with shades of the 1970s inflation and concentration reminiscent of the Nifty 50.* How income inequality has only gotten worse, and real wages have stagnated for decades.* The Boomer generation’s responsibility in the increasing wealth inequality.* We are watching a pessimistic bubble for the first time in history (this is where the nihilism comes from, and is something Dave Collum has talked about as well).* What if this isn’t the end of max stupid, what if this is just the beginning? We recorded on Friday, before the launch of Trump coin, so Paulo’s question looks prescient.* The long term impact of entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.* How the passive market has created the kindling for some potential fireworks. No one is sure if 2025 is the year, but I think we were all on the same page that it is a matter of when, not if for passive investing.* Why Paulo and Rudy are both watching the bond market, and why the move higher in yields might not be over.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Dave Collum back on the podcast to discuss his 2024 Year In Review. It’s a must read every year, and goes deep into several different rabbit holes. It’s always entertaining, just like his Twitter. We had a wide ranging conversation on everything going on in the world today, from the LA fires, Trump and geopolitics, to health and financial markets.Podcast Summary* The LA fires and what the aftermath might look like.* The state of the insurance industry and private equity.* America’s lack of a frontier, a culture of honor, and the return of frontier justice. * His thoughts on the end of NATO, the EU, and what’s going on in the world.* The connection between vaccines and autism, and ivermectin and fenbendazole for as a cancer treatment.* Obesity, Ozempic, poison in the food, and shifts in what is viewed as healthy.* The false reads from the economic dashboard, from inflation, to jobs, to GDP.* Bitcoin as the shiny object, quantum computing, and his questions on it being a sustainable asset class.* The path of creative destruction in technology.* His views on energy, abiotic oil, and other commodities like platinum and gold.* The long drawn out correction that he thinks is coming, comparing the concentration in the Mag 7 to the Nifty 50. * Book Recommendation: The Indispensable Right by Johnathan TurleyKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe