Kontrarian Korner

Last week I had Anas Alhajji on the podcast to discuss all things energy. For anyone interested in oil, gas, or coal, you will definitely learn something from this one. We hit on a wide variety of topics, but you can also watch it on YouTube here. We talked about the greatly exaggerated death of the petrodollar, and what would be required for the Saudi Riyal to depeg from the US Dollar. I know that I have listened to multiple podcasts recently talking about the death of the petrodollar, and Anas picks that idea apart in great detail.He also broke down how energy industry data has deteriorated since 2017 and how misleading headlines have become common in recent years. Anas also explained why he is taking the other side of the so-called renewable (Solar, Wind, and EV) bet. Below is a link from Anas on recent headlines from EV manufacturers. He also talked about the various uses for petrochemicals and how a massive increase in energy demand from things like AI could eventually lead to an energy crisis. His book recommendation, How To Win An Information War by Peter Pomerantsev, ties directly to his thoughts on misleading headlines.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Earlier this week, I had Mike Farris on the podcast. He’s the host of the Coffee and a Mike podcast, where has guests on to discuss a wide range of topics, from geopolitics and current events to financial markets and health. We had a great discussion covering what America has in store in coming years and some of the issues we face as a country. You can also watch it on YouTube.Podcast SummaryWe hit on a wide range of topics on the podcast, including:* The golden era of academia being over, and issues with higher education and student debt.* What the next 6 months look like for American politics.* Weaponized immigration, and the changing cultural fabric of the country.* The carnivore diet, other health topics, and issues with the food supply.* The potential for a long slow decline versus an abrupt collapse to Mad Max world.* My experience in college and public accounting with DEI. * The American cultural divide.* Book Recommendation: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale CarnegieKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Late last week I had Andy from Finding Value Finance on the podcast to discuss his thoughts on markets, commodities, and where some of the best opportunities in the market are. He has great daily updates on what is going with the market, commodities, and other sectors of interest. You can also find him on Twitter. He looks at fundamentals as well as technicals, and is a part of why I have started to include some technical analysis in my process. I have included the video below, but you can also watch it on YouTube.Podcast SummaryWe covered a bunch of different investing topics on the podcast, including:* The long term supply and demand picture for oil, and the demand destruction price being higher than most people expect.* Natural gas being cheap on a relative basis, and how some of the Canadian energy companies might be an interesting way to play the commodity.* Why coal isn’t a dying industry, and his thoughts on thermal vs. met coal.* Precious metals, and why the miners are very cheap relative to the metal.* How platinum is cheap compared to all of the other metals, and how it is a concentrated sector.* His thoughts on emerging markets, position sizing, time horizon, asymmetry, and buying calls/LEAPS to speculate on different assets.* Why steel, iron, and fertilizers are interesting sectors to look at today.* Book Recommendations: One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch, and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Jesse Livermore.* The reasons you can’t just develop investing skills from reading books, and the importance of controlling your emotions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Before I knew anything about what happened with President Trump and the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, I had invited Mark Wauck onto the podcast yesterday for an update on the geopolitical situation. Mark is a retired FBI agent who writes Meaning in History on Substack. After the events this weekend, we obviously took a detour into the situation with Trump, how it might impact the election, and other things to watch for as the election approaches. We also covered the messy geopolitical landscape in Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. If you would rather watch the video, which is also on YouTube, check it out below.Podcast SummaryThis wasn’t the typical podcast focused on investments, but I think it’s important to keep an eye on the geopolitical events for a variety of reasons. On the podcast, we discussed:* The Trump assassination attempt, and the impact on the election.* Secret Service incompetency.* Mainstream media’s coverage of the event, and Twitter’s growing importance as the public square.* The shift in the FBI since he retired, and how having prosecutors at the head of the FBI has changed things over the last couple decades.* Trump’s VP Pick.* The tough situation the Democrats are in leading up to the election.* What’s going on in Ukraine and why he thinks things could collapse sooner rather than later.* Israel’s influence on US politics and their current situation in relation to Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran.* China, Taiwan, and why a hot war in Asia is unlikely.* Book Recommendation: The Unity Of Philosophical Experience by Etienne Gilson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had Christine Guerrero on the podcast last week to talk about oil and what’s going on in energy markets today. She’s a good follow on Twitter for any of the social media junkies out there. You can also watch the podcast on YouTube. We also discussed stocks in different parts of the energy sector, including Frontera and Petrobras $PBR . I’ll be touching on both stocks briefly in my portfolio update later this week.Podcast SummaryWe covered lots of topics, including:* An in depth walkthrough of the long term supply and demand picture for oil.* Capex underinvestment over the last decade.* Permian Basin recency bias.* Frack spreads vs. rig count as an indicator for oil markets.* Negative natural gas prices at the Permian terminal and Waha terminal.* The Matterhorn pipeline coming online at the end of Q3, which should add additional pipeline capacity for the Permian.* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve.* Frontera Energy’s current situation with their offshore block in Guyana.* Petrobras vs. Lula, and the political uncertainty around the company.* Book Recommendations: How To Listen When Markets Speak by Larry McDonald and Animal Spirits by George Akerlof.“They [Wood MacKenzie] actually believe that by 2034, we’re going to need to add another 22 million barrels a day of new liquids production.”Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had Tom Luongo on the podcast recently, and we got into a wide ranging discussion on markets, geopolitics, and current events. He’s the author of Gold, Goats n’ Guns and definitely worth checking out. He’s also very entertaining on Twitter. If you would rather watch on YouTube, the link is here. Tom went into detail on a bunch of topics, including:* The Geopolitical Chess Board, and the different competing factions in power.* The Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the path forward from here.* Oil and other commodities.* The 2024 Election: Biden, Trump’s VP pick, and other topics.* Book Recommendation: Ubik by Philip K. Dick.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

We have a double dip on the podcast this week, so instead of the Videos Of The Week post, I wanted to drop my conversation with Dave Collum for you guys. He’s a professor of Organic Chemistry at Cornell and a must follow on Twitter. He’s also a sharp investor and entertaining market commentator. If you would rather watch the podcast on YouTube, here’s a link. On the podcast, we discussed:* Financial markets and the ridiculous overvaluation of some of the largest stocks: “I think the Magnificent Seven is going to become the Magnificent Zero.”* The impact of passive investing on the market.* The Presidential Election and his thoughts on Biden, Trump, and how things might play out between now and November 5.* The generational divide, including the wealth gap between old and young, the upcoming wealth transfer to younger generations, and its potential impact on the real estate market.* Book Recommendations: Psychology of Totalitarianism by Mattias Desmet and American Betrayal by Diana West.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had Steve from Unemployed Value Degen on the podcast the other day. He’s a relatively new Substack writer, and I was interested to chat with him on Transocean $RIG and several other companies he’s interested in. You can find his Substack here. If you want to watch it on YouTube, here’s a link. We spent a good bit of time chatting about Transocean and offshore, but we also covered several other stocks, including:* Sibanye Stillwater $SBSW and his thoughts on the mining sector* Peabody Energy $BTU and his thoughts on their buyback program. * He also talks about some stocks that are frequent targets of short sellers.* B. Riley $RILY , and why he thinks their core business could improve after a rough couple years, and some of the assets they could sell.* GameStop $GME , and how he thinks there could be value there outside of the speculative mania.* Medical Properties Trust $MPW , and his thoughts on the issues with a main tenant and the discount to book value. * His book recommendations: Opening Skinner’s Box by Lauren Slater and On The Nature Of Mass Movements by Eric HofferDisclaimerI own shares of Transocean and Peabody Energy. I also own calls on Transocean and Peabody Energy. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had John Polomny on the podcast recently, and we had a wide ranging discussion on what he’s paying attention to today. He writes the Actionable Intelligence Alert, a Substack you guys should check out. You can also find the video on YouTube, or on the main podcast platforms. We talked about investments and current events, among other things:* John’s experience and background in the power industry* The shift from peak ESG to a more pragmatic approach to energy policy* His natural gas outlook, and why it’s in his too hard pile* The supply and demand picture for oil, and his thoughts on the Permian Basin* His thoughts on precious metals* Other under the radar opportunities around the world* His opinion the decline of the West and the current geopolitical landscape* His book recommendation: The Black Book Of Communism (several authors)Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I hope everyone had a good Memorial Day weekend. I recently had Matt Warder, who recently took over The Coal Trader, on the podcast. You can also watch it on YouTube here. He is an expert on all things coal. We chatted for an hour on the coal sector and some the stocks that might be interesting to you. You can find him on Twitter as well. We talked about Matt’s thoughts on a bunch of other coal related topics, including:* The long term future of the sector.* His thoughts on buybacks.* Peabody, their Centurion mine, and Elliott heading for the exit.* Warrior Met Coal being very attractive below $60, and the plan for Blue Creek over the next couple years.* We also discussed Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Consol Energy, Whitehaven, Corsa Coal, Glencore and Teck. * Matt’s Book Recommendations: Thinking, Fast And Slow by Daniel Kahneman & Narrative Economics by Bob Shiller.Note: Since this podcast was recorded, Elliott Investment Management filed to sell their remaining 1.4M shares of Peabody Energy BTU .Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe