Kontrarian Korner #45 - Doug Terreson

Yesterday I had Doug Terreson on the podcast to talk about energy as well as his book, Can’t Deny It. It was a great conversation on what has happened in the energy industry over the last 30 years, but we also discussed what he sees coming over the next several years for the sector. Doug had a long career on Wall Street as a renowned oil analyst at Morgan Stanley and Evercore, and is well known for several big calls over the last thirty years. He’s had a hard time retiring and is now on the boards of Phillips 66 $PSX , Third Gear Energy Fund, and Mississippi State University. There are some parallels today to where things were when Doug was making these calls, but if you’re interested in the recent history of the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find Can’t Deny It on Amazon, but you can also find Doug on his website or on Linkedin.

Podcast Summary

* His background and his career on Wall Street as an oil analyst, and why his best calls were not consensus at the time.

* We talk about the book and the stories and setups behind his big calls.

* “The Era of the Super Major”, and the consolidation of the industry that followed, which was the biggest restructuring of the industry since the breakup of Standard Oil.

* “The Golden Age of Refining”, and what he was seeing with the refining sector in 2003 when he made the call.

* His call on oil in 2008, and why he turned bullish on the broad energy sector in November 2020.

* The shift in focus from production growth to capital allocation after the value destruction in the shale boom in the 2010s.

* His thoughts on the Permian, OPEC, continued consolidation, coal, and the overall state of the energy market today.

* Why he likes natural gas and refined products as two subsectors of the energy space over the next several years.

* The focus on data centers and what it means for some of the energy companies moving forward.

* Book Recommendations: Can’t Deny It by Doug Terreson, The Prize by Daniel Yergin, The Quest by Daniel Yergin, and The Quest For Value by Stern Stewart.

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