Kontrarian Korner Talking All Things Energy w/ HFI Research
Yesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to give us an update on the energy sector. We talked about current events and sanctions, what US oil production will look like over the next 18 months, and what OPEC has planned for that same timeframe. If you’re trying to get a feel for what the rest of 2025 and 2026 hold for the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.
Podcast Summary
* The knee jerk reaction to sanctions on Russian oil, and why they won’t stick.
* Chinese inventories increasing, if/when China will stop buying, and Chinese oil demand.
* Positioning in distillates (diesel) being at bullish extremes, and how long it might take for that positioning to unwind.
* His thoughts on the refining sector, and why it will take some time to see a more favorable environment for refiners.
* Associated gas production in the US outpacing crude oil production due to deteriorating well results.
* Producers in the Permian saying that their production is going to plateau. Chevron as an example recently revised guidance for higher gas and NGL production and lower crude production.
* Why he’s expecting flat US crude oil production into year end.
* What US production might look like if oil prices go higher into 2026.
* The case for natural gas, and why it’s based on a structural demand increase for LNG.
* Why the Haynesville is the only region of the US capable of providing excess gas.
* Why Canada is in a different situation when it comes to natural gas, and why AECO (Canadian natural gas) will never trade at premium to Henry Hub (US natural gas).
* OPEC, and what they have in store for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and why he sees WTI heading back down into the 60s later this year.
* The signposts he’s looking for as far as Saudi production, OPEC, and US production to get very bullish on oil.
* Why things in energy markets get obvious before the price move happens.
* Offshore drillers, and the structural supply deficit that is going to benefit from increased offshore capex in coming years.
* Oil sands producers in Canada, and why producers with long reserve life assets are attractive.
* The political environment in Canada, the offtake capacity being a bottleneck longer term, and why they will continue to consolidate north of the border.
* The 2018 blowout in WCS-WTI differentials (Canadian oil prices vs. US).
* Venezuela, the waivers for Chevron, Mexico, and other producers that might be off the radar.
* The lack of exploration spending, and what it means for oil and different subsectors from now until 2030.
* Book Recommendation: Apple in China by Patrick McGee & Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.
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