Rick Waters, Managing Director at Eurasia Group's China practice and former U.S. State Department China policy official, shares insights on China's perspective of a potential second Trump administration. He discusses how China viewed the first term as two phases—initially transactional, later marked by tension over COVID-19. Waters highlights China's anticipation of U.S. moves and assesses implications of Republican dominance in Congress. He also explores the evolving geopolitical landscape involving Taiwan, North Korea, and NATO's presence in the Indo-Pacific.

China has released a new documentary about its army’s preparations to attack Taiwan - the film includes interviews with Chinese soldiers who swear they'll give up their lives if needed in a potential invasion of the island.Tensions have been building for some time: Recently Taiwan’s ruling administration, led by the Democratic Progressive Party, has increased its weapons purchases from the US, while China has increased air and naval encroachments on the island. This week on the Real Story, we explore how real the risk of conflict is, why Taiwan is so important to China and the US, what Taiwan's strategy is and what an invasion might look like.(Photo: Tourists look on as a Chinese military helicopter flies past Pingtan island, one of mainland China's closest points from Taiwan, on August 4, 2022, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the self-ruled island. Credit Hector RETAMAL / AFP via Getty Images)Shaun Ley is joined by:Amanda Hsiao, Senior Analyst for China with the International Crisis Group's office in TaipeiDavid Sacks, fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DCRick Waters, formerly the US State Department's top policy official on China, managing director on China for Eurasia Group in Washington DCAlso featuring:Mark Ho, a member of Taiwan's parliament for the Democratic Progressive PartyHenry Wang from the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing, which has links to the Chinese Communist Party.Produced by Ellen Otzen and Usman Azad.

Rick Waters, Managing Director of Eurasia Group's China Practice and former State Department China coordinator, dives into the complex dynamics of China-U.S. relations. He emphasizes the importance of Track Two dialogues in overcoming political constraints. Waters reflects on his early experiences as a junior diplomat during China's economic transformation leading up to its WTO accession. The discussion also covers the creation of the 'China House' in the State Department and the critical need for clear communication to prevent crises as global tensions rise.

Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice and former top China policy official at the US State Department, dives into the nuanced world of US-China relations. He discusses the significant political shifts under Xi Jinping, emphasizing centralization and the impact of the 'Made in China 2025' initiative. Waters explores China's cautious strategy amid US election uncertainties, detailing its effects on trade and alliances. He also shares insights on crisis management, including the EP-3 incident, and calls for a collaborative US approach with allies to navigate these strategic complexities.

Debate experts Rick Waters and Dan Blumenthal discuss the progress in creating a 'floor' in US-China relations. They explore the evolving global order, channels for crisis resolution, managing challenges, the role of third parties, and the impact of evolving US politics. They also highlight the importance of demonstrating the success of democracy amidst global threats.