Rick Waters, Managing Director of Eurasia Group's China Practice and former State Department China coordinator, dives into the complex dynamics of China-U.S. relations. He emphasizes the importance of Track Two dialogues in overcoming political constraints. Waters reflects on his early experiences as a junior diplomat during China's economic transformation leading up to its WTO accession. The discussion also covers the creation of the 'China House' in the State Department and the critical need for clear communication to prevent crises as global tensions rise.
The U.S. and China seek to stabilize their relationship through informal dialogues despite political pressures that complicate official communication.
The outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections could significantly influence key issues like trade and fentanyl in China-U.S. policy.
Deep dives
Stabilizing the China-U.S. Relationship
Both the U.S. and China have a genuine desire to stabilize their bilateral relationship despite the challenging circumstances. The complexity of the relationship is heightened by political pressures that often strain official channels of communication, especially in critical areas like strategic discussions and law enforcement. Even without ideal conditions, informal dialogues, such as track two dialogues, provide channels for communication that can help manage the relationship. Mr. Waters emphasizes the importance of these dialogues by illustrating how extended discussions can lead to a deeper understanding of each side's positions, particularly in high-stakes scenarios.
Lessons from Past Crises
Reflecting on historical crises in U.S.-China relations, Mr. Waters notes that keeping communication channels open during tense times is crucial in managing misunderstandings. He draws parallels between past crises, such as the embassy bombing in Belgrade and the EP3 incident, highlighting the political costs of maintaining open dialogue. The recent unmanned airship incident illustrated how rapid escalations can occur when communication breaks down. By fostering reliable and continuous communication, both countries can ideally navigate through potential future conflicts more effectively.
Impact of the U.S. Elections on Bilateral Relations
The outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections will significantly impact the China-U.S. relationship, particularly concerning two main issues: trade and fentanyl. Regardless of who wins, addressing these two issues will be critical as they shape government policy towards China. Mr. Waters suggests that China's economic orientation and ongoing economic practices will affect how the new administration engages with the nation. Ultimately, fostering people-to-people exchanges is essential for maintaining stable relations, but this requires continuous effort to cultivate mutual understanding and cooperation.