Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice and former top China policy official at the US State Department, dives into the nuanced world of US-China relations. He discusses the significant political shifts under Xi Jinping, emphasizing centralization and the impact of the 'Made in China 2025' initiative. Waters explores China's cautious strategy amid US election uncertainties, detailing its effects on trade and alliances. He also shares insights on crisis management, including the EP-3 incident, and calls for a collaborative US approach with allies to navigate these strategic complexities.
Rick Waters emphasizes the pivotal role of mentorship in shaping his diplomatic understanding during his early career focused on U.S.-China relations.
The ongoing centralization of power in China has led to a cautious and reactive approach in policymaking, especially concerning U.S. relations and internal challenges.
Deep dives
Rick Waters' Journey in Foreign Service
Rick Waters discusses his path to joining the U.S. Foreign Service, emphasizing his desire to engage with China, which was not as popular during the late 90s compared to Europe. His opportunity arose from a spurt of interest in Asia, leading him to a prestigious role in embassy Beijing early in his career. He received extensive training and mentorship while navigating various assignments, ultimately bringing valuable experience back to the U.S. Waters highlights the influence of senior Foreign Service officers and how this mentorship shaped his understanding of diplomacy in the context of U.S.-China relations.
Assessing China's Political Landscape in 2015
Waters reflects on the political environment in China during his tenure as a political counselor in 2015, shortly after Xi Jinping's third plenum. At that time, there was a sense of uncertainty regarding China's future direction, with Waters noting the heightened assertiveness of Xi's administration compared to his previous experiences in the country. The climate of paranoia that emerged after events like the Arab Spring influenced party dynamics, steering Chinese policy towards a more national security-focused agenda. This shift seemed to reflect a response not only to internal challenges but also to perceived external threats, particularly from the United States.
Current Challenges in Chinese Policy Making
Waters provides insight into the evolution of China's policymaking, noting an increasing centralization of power, which has made the decision-making process slower and more intricate. The necessity for more approvals at higher levels has led to incremental changes rather than bold actions, revealing a bureaucratic system that struggles to adapt to complex challenges. Given the economic difficulties China currently faces, particularly structural issues beyond mere growth, the policy environment is more precarious. Waters observes that the past successes in the economic management of China are not easily replicated due to these entrenched challenges.
China's Strategic Approach to Future U.S. Relations
Looking ahead, Waters discusses how China's perception of the U.S. and its upcoming elections shapes its own strategies. He highlights a cautious approach within Beijing, where officials are tasked with assessing the implications of potential outcomes in the U.S. elections without expressing direct preferences. Importantly, the Chinese leadership is more reactive to American actions than to rhetoric, which complicates their decision-making process. As China navigates its responses, the overarching concern is how to manage this competitive dynamic with the U.S. while preparing for potential escalations.
This week Mike and Jude are joined by Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice. Rick previously served as the US State Department's top China policy official, overseeing the creation of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, and concurrently serving as deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan.
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