The United States and China are Making Progress in Creating a “floor” in U.S.-China Relations: A Debate with Mr. Rick Waters and Mr. Dan Blumenthal
Dec 19, 2023
auto_awesome
Debate experts Rick Waters and Dan Blumenthal discuss the progress in creating a 'floor' in US-China relations. They explore the evolving global order, channels for crisis resolution, managing challenges, the role of third parties, and the impact of evolving US politics. They also highlight the importance of demonstrating the success of democracy amidst global threats.
Establishing a "floor" in US-China relations through diplomacy and negotiation is essential to manage tensions and avoid conflict.
Economic competition has become a domain of conflict and leverage, requiring countering China's economic expansion and building alliances.
Progress in establishing deterrence and stability is necessary to shape the US-China relationship, including addressing extended deterrence issues and countering China's nuclear plans.
Deep dives
The Need for a Floor in US-China Relations
In a debate about whether the United States and China are making progress in creating a floor in their relations, two experts presented opposing arguments. One expert argued that a floor is needed and that diplomacy and negotiation are necessary to manage tensions and avoid conflict. They emphasized the importance of building stronger deterrent capabilities, alliances, and economic measures to contain China's expansion and challenge to the current world order. The other expert disagreed, stating that Chinese President Xi Jinping does not want a floor and is preparing China for a long-lasting struggle against the United States. They highlighted China's belief that the United States is containing and undermining China's rise, and argued that the United States itself is not interested in a floor at the price demanded by China. Overall, while acknowledging the need for diplomacy and managing tensions, the experts disagreed on the current feasibility of establishing a floor in US-China relations.
Economic Tensions and Geoeconomic Competition
Economic tensions between the United States and China were discussed, highlighting how economic competition has become a domain of conflict and a source of leverage in the overall relationship. Both experts agreed that economics is no longer a pressure valve for easing tensions, as China sees economic warfare as a strategy to expand their power and undo the current world order. Examples were given, such as Chinese initiatives to build economic leverage in sectors like oil and renewable energy, and how the United States has been slow to react to China's economic practices. The experts emphasized the importance of countering China's economic expansion and building alliances and supply chain resilience to prevent economic dependencies that could be weaponized by China. It was noted that economic tensions contribute to overall political ties and China's perception of the United States as an adversary.
Moving Forward in US-China Relations
In considering the future of US-China relations, the experts discussed the need for progress in establishing deterrence and stability. While acknowledging the current limitations in terms of building stronger capabilities, there was agreement that these efforts are necessary to counter China's increasing risk-taking behavior. Key areas mentioned included building stronger coalition alliances, addressing extended deterrence issues, continuing technology restrictions, and countering China's nuclear plans and efforts to undermine confidence. It was emphasized that work must be done to change China's perception of the United States as being in terminal decline and to undermine China's confidence in its rise. Both experts agreed that tensions will persist in the near term, but strategies to stabilize deterrence and manage future crises will be key to shaping the US-China relationship.
The importance of negotiating a position with China to avoid tension and crisis
Negotiating a position with China that prevents further tension and crisis is crucial. This would involve establishing open channels of communication and confidence-building measures to address potential military incidents. The goal is to achieve detente and a loosening of tensions in the relationship.
The challenge of managing tensions and the clash of grand strategies
Managing tensions between the US and China is challenging due to their clash of grand strategies. While the US aims to deter China's actions and contain its expansionism, China continues to hold out the possibility of going to war with Taiwan. Third parties, such as allies, have a role in signaling to Beijing the importance of peace and stability. However, there is skepticism about the potential for progress in establishing a stable relationship given the fundamental differences in strategic goals and the current geopolitical environment.
On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024.
For the first debate, the proposition is “the United States and China are making progress in creating a “floor” in U.S.-China relations to manage tensions and crises.” Arguing for this proposition is Mr. Rick Waters who is the managing director of the China Practice at the Eurasia Group. Arguing against is Mr. Dan Blumenthal who is a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute.
To watch the debate recordings, read the transcripts, or view the live or twitter polling, visit our website at https://chinapower.csis.org/chinas-power-up-for-debate-2023/.
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
