Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis, financial expert, discusses China's investment-driven growth model, challenges in increasing consumption, comparisons to Japan's economic decline, impact of trade surpluses on deficit countries, and the fallacy of 'trade is always good' mindset among economists.

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettisFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:40) China's Economic Growth Model(18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China(26:01) Van Eck ad(26:51) Domestic Consumption In China(35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works(39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble(43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China(49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue(01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy(01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity?(01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S.(01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough

Hui Shan, Chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, and Michael Pettis, Professor at Peking University, delve into China's economic landscape. They discuss the nuances of China's policy stimulus and its potential effectiveness against both domestic challenges and external pressures, such as U.S. trade policies. The conversation uncovers shifts towards consumption over infrastructure, critiques of manufacturing subsidies, and the impact of political dynamics, including potential tariffs from the U.S. The experts evaluate if these measures can truly revitalize China's sluggish GDP growth.

Michael Pettis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, discusses how China's changing economy will impact the world. They cover topics such as China's weakened economy post-pandemic, the challenges faced by developing countries, the role of the RMB, China's manufacturing sector, and the negative nature of social media reactions to China's projects.

Michael Pettis, a nonresident senior fellow for Carnegie China and an expert on China’s economy, discusses the fractured state of global trade. He argues that to achieve freer trade, nations must implement more targeted interventions rather than relying solely on tariffs. The conversation delves into how trade dynamics have been manipulated, particularly by Germany and China, and critiques the U.S. role as the 'consumer of last resort.' Pettis advocates for a new framework akin to Bretton Woods to foster collaborative, fair trade policies.

Economists Adam Posen, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, and Michael Pettis discuss the causes of China's economic stagnation, including the lack of consumer rebound and the challenges of transitioning to a new growth model. They also explore the impact of China's foreign policy and civil-military fusion strategy, and the concept of the middle income trap on the rise and fall of the private sector.

Guest Michael Pettis, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the impact of China's changing economy on the Global South. Topics include China's weakened economy post-pandemic, the property crisis, and the effect on local government finances. Pettis also explores China's economic policies, high savings, and the role of the RMB in the global economy. The podcast touches on manufacturing trends, interdependency with the US, biases on social media, and the launch of the China Global South project.

Michael Pettis, finance professor at Peking University, discusses China's economic challenges, including the property crisis and debt challenges. They explore the imbalances caused by obsolete growth models and excessive debt, as well as the options China has for addressing this issue.

Michael Pettis, finance professor at Peking University’s School of Management, discusses the Chinese growth model and factors that will impact its future. Topics include debt, demographics, deleveraging, and China's strategy for the next decade. Challenges in repairing imbalances and managing economic rebalancing are explored, with predictions of slow growth and stagnation similar to Japan.

Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, dives into the cascading effects of the Evergrande crisis on China's economy. He discusses the crucial relationship between real estate and GDP, and the implications for household wealth and consumption. Pettis also highlights the challenges of transitioning from a debt-heavy growth model to a more sustainable one, alongside the complexities of income inequality and the potential for redistributing wealth amid significant political obstacles.