Fixing Global Trade: Why Tariffs and Trade Wars Aren’t Enough
Dec 5, 2024
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Michael Pettis, a nonresident senior fellow for Carnegie China and an expert on China’s economy, discusses the fractured state of global trade. He argues that to achieve freer trade, nations must implement more targeted interventions rather than relying solely on tariffs. The conversation delves into how trade dynamics have been manipulated, particularly by Germany and China, and critiques the U.S. role as the 'consumer of last resort.' Pettis advocates for a new framework akin to Bretton Woods to foster collaborative, fair trade policies.
The current global trading system is flawed as it fails to balance trade surpluses and deficits, necessitating proactive interventions from deficit countries like the U.S.
China's export-driven economic model creates structural imbalances in global trade, emphasizing the need for collaborative international agreements to manage economic disparities.
Deep dives
The Flaws in the Current Global Trading System
The existing global trading system is deemed fundamentally flawed, as it neither embodies true free trade nor adequately addresses the inequities that arise from trade surpluses and deficits. Critics argue that while free trade theoretically promotes prosperity, the current reality is characterized by distorted markets influenced by national policies, particularly those of surplus countries. For instance, the U.S. must take proactive steps to rectify these imbalances, as mere theoretical adherence to free trade principles fails to hold. Without purposeful intervention from deficit countries like the U.S., a transition to a more equitable trading environment remains unlikely.
China's Role in Global Trade Imbalances
China significantly impacts global trade dynamics through its policies that create substantial trade surpluses while maintaining weak domestic demand. The country's approach to economic management involves increasing savings by suppressing consumption, which leads to an excess production that is then exported to other nations. This cycle allows China to sustain high levels of output, but it does so at the expense of its trading partners, effectively exporting unemployment and economic instability elsewhere. Acknowledging this interconnectedness is crucial for formulating solutions that will facilitate a balanced trading environment.
The Need for New Trade Policies and Interventions
Proposed solutions to combat the deficiencies in the trading system include implementing new trade agreements and possibly global tariffs to address excess savings movement across national borders. The concept of a 'new Bretton Woods' aims to create a framework where countries agree to manage surpluses and deficits collaboratively, ensuring no nation externalizes its economic challenges. Unilateral actions, such as taxing capital inflows, are also suggested to mitigate the adverse effects of foreign investments on domestic savings and employment. Collective efforts among major deficit countries will be essential to create a more equitable and sustainable international trade landscape.
Our modern global trading system is broken. How can we fix it?
We seem to have moved beyond the free trade consensus of the globalization era. Few politicians today still publicly support the assumption that trade, unrestricted by national borders, makes everyone more prosperous. Under President Trump, the United States has wielded tariffs and industrial policy to reshape the international trade order to better serve American interests, and the Biden administration has upheld and doubled down on many of these. But these interventions do not yet add up to a new trade policy consensus.
This week's episode dives into a provocative new argument: in order to achieve freer trade, the world needs more trade interventions. What is global trade policy doing wrong? What new trade rules are needed to create a system that both harnesses the benefits of free trade and preserves nations' freedom to direct their economies? And what policy interventions might help foster this future of freer trade? Sophia discusses these questions and more with Michael Pettis, a nonresident Senior Fellow for Carnegie China and expert on China's economy.
Michael Pettis and Erica Hogan, "Trade Intervention for Freer Trade," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 3, 2024.
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