[GLOBAL SOUTH] Michael Pettis Explains How China's Changing Economy Will Impact the World
Oct 10, 2023
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Guest Michael Pettis, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the impact of China's changing economy on the Global South. Topics include China's weakened economy post-pandemic, the property crisis, and the effect on local government finances. Pettis also explores China's economic policies, high savings, and the role of the RMB in the global economy. The podcast touches on manufacturing trends, interdependency with the US, biases on social media, and the launch of the China Global South project.
China's involvement in the Middle East and its relationship with Iran could be affected by its handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, impacting its reputation in the region.
Kenyan President William Ruto's visit to China for debt rescheduling and new loans may be uncertain due to Kenya's debt distress, Ruto's lack of China experience, and China's own debt issues.
China's development model, emphasizing high levels of investment funded by domestic savings, has driven its economic growth but poses challenges in managing surplus savings and external investments.
Deep dives
China's Role in the Middle East Conflict
China's increasingly ambitious diplomatic agenda in the Middle East and close ties with Iran are at stake amidst the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. China's handling of the situation could impact its reputation in the region, particularly with Israel and Saudi Arabia. China's involvement and influence in the Middle East are being closely watched as it navigates its relationship with Iran and the region's complex dynamics.
Kenyan President's Visit to China
Kenyan President William Ruto is planning a visit to China for the Belt and Road Forum, where he aims to reschedule some of Kenya's $6 billion debt owed to China and request an additional $1 billion in new loans for unfinished road projects. However, the likelihood of obtaining the requested loans is uncertain, given Kenya's existing debt distress and China's own debt issues. Ruto's lack of China experience and the country's reform policies may also affect the outcome of the visit.
Understanding China's Development Model
China follows a development model that emphasizes high levels of investment funded by domestic savings. The nation's successful policies have led to significant domestic savings and investments, driving its rapid economic growth. China's high savings rate, controlled and directed by the government, facilitated the country's transition from being under-invested to being over-invested. However, managing the surplus savings and external investments poses challenges. The model is crucial in understanding China's economic trajectory and its impact on the global economy.
The historical pattern of lending to developing countries
The podcast discusses the historical pattern of lending to developing countries. It highlights cases such as the United States in the 1920s, the Soviet Union in the 1950s, and the Arab OPEC nations in the 1970s, where countries experienced a period of exuberant lending followed by a recognition of the riskiness of their loans, leading to a sharp pullback.
Debt forgiveness and the Chinese approach
The podcast explores the Chinese approach to debt forgiveness and cancellation. It mentions that the Chinese government has not shown interest in debt cancellations and that the central government is reluctant to grant debt relief to provinces within China itself. It discusses the challenges in implementing debt forgiveness due to the lack of experience in this area and the centralized decision-making process in China. Additionally, it highlights the importance of recognizing the inevitability of debt forgiveness for countries that cannot pay and how it can benefit both debtor and creditor nations in the long term.
China's economy emerged from the pandemic much weaker than before. Unemployment is up, exports are down and a burgeoning property crisis is having a devastating impact on local government finances.
These changes in the economy are happening very fast, so quickly that's it difficult for experts to keep pace with what's happening, much less among those who don't closely follow Chinese economic trends -- particularly in developing countries.
Michael Pettis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is one of the world's foremost scholars on the Chinese economy. He joins Eric this week to discuss how the dramatic changes that are now taking place in China will impact countries throughout the Global South.
SHOW NOTES:
Amazon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace: https://amzn.to/46Iiqel
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