Michael Pettis: The Chinese Growth Miracle Is Over

Jun 7, 2022

Michael Pettis, finance professor at Peking University’s School of Management, discusses the Chinese growth model and factors that will impact its future. Topics include debt, demographics, deleveraging, and China's strategy for the next decade. Challenges in repairing imbalances and managing economic rebalancing are explored, with predictions of slow growth and stagnation similar to Japan.

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Introduction

00:00 • 2min

The High Savings, High Investment Model and its Consequences

01:43 • 5min

Demographic Shifts and the Chinese Business Model

06:44 • 5min

The Challenges of Repairing Imbalances

11:57 • 18min

The Challenges of Rebalancing China's Economy and the Likelihood of Slow Growth

29:44 • 3min

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Michael Pettis for a discussion on China. Finance professor at Peking University’s School of Management and senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Michael Pettis worked on Wall Street from 1987 at notable firms such as JPMorgan, First Boston and Bear Stearns.

With Pettis' expertise, he provides a deep dive on the Chinese economic growth model and how factors such as debt, demographics and deleveraging will effect China's growth model looking forward. With Beijing acknowledging that the past 30 years of economic growth will not work for China going forward, what does this entail for the country’s strategy over the next decade and beyond?

To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

China, U.S. lead rise in global debt to record high $305 trillion - IIF: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/China-U-S-lead-rise-in-global-debt-to-record-high-305-trillion-IIF--40468591/

The one-child policy in China: https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/chinas-one-child-policy/

China: To Invest or Not To Invest?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/china-to-invest-or-not-to-invest?s=r#details

China posts record trade surplus in Dec and 2021 on robust exports: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-exports-imports-grow-more-slowly-december-2022-01-14/

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:46) The Chinese Model For Growth

(06:41) Demographics & Consumption In China

(12:02) China's Strategy In The Next Decade & Beyond

(21:06) The Great Deleveraging

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.