Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Introduction
00:00 • 6min
The Fed's Labor Market Survey Shows a Strong Job Market
05:36 • 4min
The Merson Rundown of Unemployment
10:02 • 2min
The Unemployment Rate and the Fed's Balance Sheet
11:55 • 5min
The Fed's Raise Rate on Unemployment Rate
16:41 • 5min
The Market Reaction to the Fed Move at the Next Meeting
21:24 • 3min
The Debt Ceiling Deal and the Macroeconomic Consequences
23:59 • 4min
The Side Deals
28:16 • 2min
The Economic Consequences of Ending the Moratorium on Student Loan Payments
29:49 • 5min
The Debt Limit and Fiscal Policy in 2025
35:07 • 2min
The Stats Game
36:47 • 1min
The Labor Market and the Survey Response Rate
37:55 • 5min
How Much PTO Should Bernage Take in 2025?
42:59 • 2min
The 79 Barrel of PTO
45:07 • 4min
How to Round a Labor Force Statistic
49:10 • 2min
The Census Bureau's Poll Survey on the Pandemic
50:55 • 2min
The Decline of UI-Continuing Claims
52:38 • 3min
Construction Employment Increased 25k
55:50 • 5min
The Probability of Recession Starting This Year and Calendar Year 2023
01:00:56 • 5min
The Quits Rate and the Fed's Plan to Bring Down Inflation
01:05:46 • 2min
The Fed's Expectations for Wage Growth in 2024
01:07:58 • 2min
The Fed's Probability of Raising Rates
01:09:56 • 4min
The Fed's Role in Inflation
01:14:11 • 4min