Refactoring Podcast Thinking in Bets for Engineers 🎲— with Annie Duke
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Aug 1, 2025 
Annie Duke, a former professional poker player turned decision-making expert, shares her unique journey from the poker table to tech coaching. She delves into the art of making decisions under uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of mental models and feedback loops. Duke highlights the challenges of quitting and how biases can distort our decision-making. She also discusses strategies to improve group decision-making by fostering open dialogue and individual contributions, ultimately transforming quitting into a strategic skill rather than a failure.
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Resulting Bias Hampers Learning
- Decision-making under uncertainty makes closing feedback loops difficult.
- Resulting, where outcomes bias judgment of decisions, impedes learning and accuracy.
Chasing Short Feedback Loops
- Feedback loops in poker and startups differ but share quick checkpoints for learning.
- Even long outcomes have early signals crucial to improving decisions and forecasts.
Structure Your Decision Process
- Start by deciding how much time to spend on a decision based on its long-term impact and reversibility.
- Make implicit assumptions explicit to improve accuracy and facilitate feedback.
