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Thinking in Bets for Engineers 🎲— with Annie Duke

Refactoring Podcast

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Navigating Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

This chapter explores how decision-making differs in games of certainty versus games of chance, emphasizing the pitfalls of judging outcomes without understanding underlying processes. It discusses the importance of short feedback loops and concrete metrics in enhancing decision-making quality, as well as the necessity of making implicit beliefs explicit. Through practical examples from poker and venture capital, the speakers highlight the complexities in navigating uncertainty and the value of continual improvement.

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