The Bond Market Is Wrong | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/

Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief

(04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong

(07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"

(01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go

(15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case

(28:06) Curve Ad

(29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling?

(36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?

(46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime

(57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"

(01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate

(01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?

(01:14:45) Higher For Longer!

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.