Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/
Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief
(04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong
(07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"
(01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go
(15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case
(28:06) Curve Ad
(29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling?
(36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?
(46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime
(57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"
(01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate
(01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?
(01:14:45) Higher For Longer!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
