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Despite widespread pessimism about the economy, inflation concerns, and earnings downgrades, the market has held up well in 2023. The economy has been performing better than expected, leading to a more positive market sentiment. The data from the jobs report, although mixed, suggests that the labor market is holding up and inflation may not be as worrisome as initially thought. The market's response is largely driven by how the Federal Reserve interprets the data and the expectations of future rate hikes. Overall, the market is expected to hold steady or even grind higher in the coming months, with stocks likely to outperform bonds.
Earnings estimate revisions from analysts play a significant role in determining stock performance. While analysts tend to be somewhat optimistic in their long-term forecasts, the direction of estimate changes is what matters. Positive estimate revisions tend to lead to stock outperformance, while negative revisions can have the opposite effect. The impact of these revisions on stock prices can take weeks or months to fully play out, as analysts and the market gradually incorporate the new information. It is important to focus on the direction of estimate changes and the overall trend rather than the level of the estimates.
In addition to earnings estimates, factors such as price momentum and valuation also influence stock performance. Stocks that exhibit strong fundamental and price momentum along with attractive valuations tend to be the most favorable. The combination of positive earnings estimates, price momentum, and reasonable valuations creates an ideal scenario for potential stock gains. However, it is important to note that the incorporation of new information and the realization of stock gains may take time, as the market's response is not immediate. It is crucial to balance a trend-following approach with valuation considerations to identify stocks with the best potential for positive returns.
Despite concerns of a possible economic slowdown, earnings revisions have shown positive signs in recent months. The pace of estimate cuts has significantly decreased, especially in large cap stocks within the technology sector. Other cyclical industries like industrials and consumer discretionary have also seen better readings on their earnings revisions. This suggests that many cuts in earnings estimates have already brought them down enough, potentially stabilizing or even slightly raising them in the near future. The trend of improved earnings revisions is observed both in the US and Europe, with the latter showing surprising strength despite expectations of a recession due to external factors.
The investment process at Mill Street Research focuses on the relative strength of earnings revisions, price momentum, and valuation. By comparing the strength of earnings estimates revisions across countries, sectors, and individual stocks, stronger areas with positive revisions and favorable valuations are identified for potential investment. The strategy entails seeking companies with rising earnings estimates and positive price momentum, while ensuring that valuations are reasonable and not excessively priced. Sectors like technology, industrials, and transportation, which benefit from a strong job market and lower energy costs, are currently showing relative strength in their earnings revisions. Conversely, industries such as real estate, utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples display weaker earnings revisions.
Rebecca Hotsko and Sam Burns discuss, Sam's 2023 market outlook, the strong market performance despite negative earnings revisions, and more!
Sam Burns, CFA is the chief strategist at Mill Street Research – an independent research company specializing in proprietary institutional research tools for asset allocation, stock selection, and macro-economic indicators.
Burns has more than 20 years of experience as a market strategist providing US and global investment insights at Wall Street firms including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
0:00 - Intro
02:45 - The current state of the market and Sam’s outlook for 2023.
09:46 - Why the market has held up so far despite the negative revisions to analyst’s earnings estimates.
24:34 - Sam’s specialty at Mill Street research which is tracking analyst earnings revisions.
30:32 - How analyst earning revisions can be used to inform an investment strategy.
35:49 - Investment strategies related to analyst earnings revisions, including the sectors that are seeing better-than-expected revisions.
47:31 - Which sectors have seen the most downward revisions in earnings estimates?
50:06 - Which sectors Sam is most bullish on long term.
53:03 - The indicators Sam is watching that indicator the market may be on an uptrend.
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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Email: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.com
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