Are Analysts Overly Optimistic?

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Analysts tend to be overly optimistic on average, but it's not the level of their forecast that matters. It's whether if there's news comes out and they raise their estimates for whatever reason, that's incrementally positive news. That's kind of probably drive the stock price higher rather than lower. And so we find that the stocks that have the biggest upward revisions tend outperform those with the most negative revisions.

Rebecca Hotsko and Sam Burns discuss, Sam's 2023 market outlook, the strong market performance despite negative earnings revisions, and more!

Sam Burns, CFA is the chief strategist at Mill Street Research – an independent research company specializing in proprietary institutional research tools for asset allocation, stock selection, and macro-economic indicators.

Burns has more than 20 years of experience as a market strategist providing US and global investment insights at Wall Street firms including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

0:00 - Intro

02:45 - The current state of the market and Sam’s outlook for 2023.

09:46 - Why the market has held up so far despite the negative revisions to analyst’s earnings estimates.

24:34 - Sam’s specialty at Mill Street research which is tracking analyst earnings revisions.

30:32 - How analyst earning revisions can be used to inform an investment strategy.

35:49 - Investment strategies related to analyst earnings revisions, including the sectors that are seeing better-than-expected revisions.

47:31 - Which sectors have seen the most downward revisions in earnings estimates?

50:06 - Which sectors Sam is most bullish on long term.

53:03 - The indicators Sam is watching that indicator the market may be on an uptrend.

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Related Episode: Listen to MI255: Navigating Bubble 3.0: Is This Time Different? w/ David Hay, or watch the video.

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