Social Media and Politics Election Forecasting, Prediction Markets, and Gamification, with Prof. Matthew Wall and Dr. Louis Bromfield
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Oct 19, 2025 Join Professor Matthew Wall, a political scientist focused on election forecasting, and Dr. Louis Bromfield, a researcher in gamification, as they delve into the fascinating world of election prediction. They explore the effectiveness of prediction markets like Polymarket, discussing how they can outshine traditional polls and subtly influence voter behavior through bandwagon effects. The duo also reveals insights on gamifying forecasting to boost political engagement, sharing their experiences with Fantasy Forecast and the impacts observed in recent elections.
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Sport Example Shows Forecasting Slipperiness
- Matt illustrates forecasting slipperiness with a soccer prediction that later proves wrong but could be defended as a vague claim.
- He argues for quantified probabilities to avoid such narrative wiggle-room.
Forecasts Need Probabilities And Accountability
- A proper forecast must assign explicit probabilities and be held accountable after outcomes are known.
- Human narrativizing makes probabilistic forecasting counterintuitive, so formal grading forces clearer assessments.
Three Core Forms Of Election Forecasting
- Election forecasting takes three main forms: polls, prediction models, and prediction markets.
- Each offers different temporal granularity and purposes, from temperature checks to automated market pricing.
