Realization Effect and Engagement Challenges

Professor Matthew Wall and Dr. Louis Bromfield, both at the Department of Politics, Philosophy, and International Relations at Swansea University, discuss election forecasting. We cover different types of political forecasting, such as polls and prediction models, and dive into prediction markets like Polymarket. We then discuss the concept of the 'wisdom of the crowd' and what attributes make a good forecaster, before turning to how betting market odds, forecasting platforms, and gamification can be used in research. 

Resources:
Horse Race Politics Podcast on YouTube and Spotify
Horse Race Politics Platform
Professor Wall's study on the 2007 Irish Elections
Dr. Bromfield's Doctoral Thesis