Many Happy Returns

How High Will Interest Rates Go?

Jun 20, 2023

45:03

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Episode notes

Introduction

2min

The UK's Inflation Outlook

2min

The Problem With Core Inflation in the UK

2min

Guilt Yields Jumped After the Latest Wage Inflation Print

2min

The U-Shaped Value of Pain in the UK Government Bond Market

2min

The Importance of Historical Context in Interest Rates

2min

The Bank of England's Communication With the Public Has Been Poor

2min

The Fed's Models for Inflation Don't Work

2min

The Problem With Mechanized Monetary Policy

2min

10.

The Problem With Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates

2min

11.

The Problem With Fiscal Policy in the UK

2min

12.

The Effects of Interest Rate Swaps on the Bond Market

2min

13.

The Risks of Hedging Your Mortgage Rates

2min

14.

The Impact of Interest Rates on the UK Economy

3min

15.

The UK's Housing Market Is Changing

4min

16.

The Price to Income Ratio in the UK

2min

17.

The Bank of England's Forecast for a Recession

2min

18.

The Bank of England's Negative Messaging

2min

19.

The Decline of the UK Housing Market

2min

20.

Why Central Banks Raise Interest Rates Incrementally

2min

21.

The Importance of Signaling to Markets

3min

The UK has the highest inflation of any major economy, and markets expect the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates in response.

But how high could rates go? Will mortgages become unaffordable?

We discuss the chances of a recession and whether house prices could crash.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do central banks raise interest rates incrementally rather than in one big jump?

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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.