Where We Buy: Retail Real Estate with James Cook Retail Sales Forecasting 101 - Where We Buy #290
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May 10, 2024 Paul Sill, Head of the Visionary Insights Group at JLL and a specialist in retail sales forecasting, shares insights on the intricacies of predictive modeling for retail real estate decisions. He discusses how a diverse range of data is utilized to forecast sales, influencing critical decisions about lease agreements. Sill also recounts his career journey from Blockbuster Video to founding Forum Analytics, emphasizing the importance of accurate data and collaboration with data scientists to enhance forecasting. The conversation touches on retail competition, showcasing innovative strategies in the field.
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Sales Forecasting Importance
- Retail real estate pricing hinges on potential sales revenue.
- Accurate sales forecasting is crucial for lease negotiations and profitability.
Minimum Data Requirements
- Aim for at least 50 similar, annualized locations for a reliable model.
- Exclude inconsistent early locations that don't reflect the current concept.
Data Discovery Process
- Conduct thorough data discovery, examining sales, customer, and operational data.
- Understand store operations, site characteristics, and customer engagement.