The Basics Of Incrementality & Measurement with Michael Kaminsky - Episode #139
Nov 8, 2023
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Michael Kaminsky, an experienced econometrician specializing in causal inference and marketing measurement, discusses the different methods of measuring marketing's performance and the relationship between attribution and incrementality. They also explore the use of Marketing Mix Modeling alongside Multi-touch attribution, the challenges of measuring work for non-performance marketers, and the possibility of achieving 100% certainty in measurement.
Marketing measurement methods like attribution and experiments aim to assess incrementality, but none of them capture it perfectly.
Multi-touch attribution and marketing mix modeling have limitations and require careful consideration for accurate measurement and forecasting.
Deep dives
Marketing dollars should be held accountable
The speaker emphasizes the importance of holding marketing dollars accountable to specific goals. Attribution, experiments, and historical trend analysis are commonly used methods to measure marketing effectiveness. However, none of these methods perfectly capture incrementality, which is the true measure of how much additional business is generated by each marketing activity.
Different methods of measuring marketing performance
There are various ways of measuring marketing performance, including attribution, surveys and polls, experiments, and statistical modeling. Attribution, specifically digital tracking attribution, is a well-known method that tracks consumer activity across different devices and assigns credit to marketing channels. However, this method has limitations, as it does not account for all touchpoints and may not capture true incrementality.
The importance of focusing on incrementality
Incrementality, or causality, is the fundamental question in marketing. It refers to the additional conversions or revenue generated by specific marketing activities. All marketing measurement methods, including attribution and experiments, aim to assess incrementality, but none of them capture it perfectly. Marketers should prioritize understanding and measuring incrementality to optimize their marketing efforts.
Challenges with multi-touch attribution and marketing mix modeling
Multi-touch attribution attempts to assign credit to different marketing touchpoints, but its flaws include missing touchpoints and relying on the assumption of tracking all activities. On the other hand, marketing mix modeling takes a statistical approach and looks at historical data to understand the relationships between marketing spend and sales. However, both methods have their limitations and require careful consideration for accurate measurement and forecasting.
Michael is a trained econometrician with experience in causal inference in fields ranging from healthcare outcomes to environmental economics. He previously built the marketing science team at men’s grooming brand Harry’s before co-founding Recast. He spends his days helping brands eliminate their wasted marketing spend…
Questions and topics we covered include:
The different methods of measuring marketing’s performance (attribution is only one of many methods)…
Do attribution tools lie to you?
The difference between "attribution" and “incrementality”
The relationship between measurement and forecasting when it comes to marketing
How to use Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) alongside Multi-touch attribution (MTA)
How to get your work measured if you’re not a performance marketer
Will 100% certainty in measurement ever be possible?