Taiwan's slow military modernization is due to challenges in harmonizing different perspectives within the military and political establishment.
China employs sophisticated disinformation tactics to manipulate public opinion in Taiwan, posing a growing threat to national security and international credibility.
Taiwan's concept of a 'silicon shield' as a deterrent against Chinese invasion is flawed, as China has shown a tolerance for self-inflicted pain in the past and the ultimate threat remains an invasion itself.
Deep dives
Political landscape in Taiwan and the two major parties
Taiwan has two major political parties: the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT). The DPP, currently the ruling party, emerged in the 80s and strongly advocates for stronger Taiwanese identity. On the other hand, the KMT, which had ruled Taiwan since 1949, leans towards a more accommodating stance with China. Despite differences in beliefs about Taiwan's relation to China, there are upcoming elections next year where the current vice president from the DPP is expected to run against the KMT.
Taiwan's historical background and its complex national identity
Taiwan's history has been complex, marked by transitions from the Qing dynasty to the Republic of China (ROC) in 1911, followed by the Communist uprising in China, which led to the ROC's retreat to Taiwan in 1949. Taiwan itself had been a Japanese colony until 1945. The political parties in Taiwan are shaped by different interpretations of Taiwanese identity. While the KMT believes in a closer relationship with China and the idea of one China, the DPP considers Taiwan to be a sovereign and independent country, with its sovereignty resting on the 23 million people of Taiwan.
Taiwan's approach to maintaining security and the challenge of disinformation
Taiwan faces the looming threat of a potential invasion from China. To maintain security, the DPP government has focused on enhancing deterrence by increasing defense budget, reintroducing conscription, and acquiring new weaponry. However, there are challenges in harmonizing the different perspectives within the military and political establishment. Furthermore, China employs sophisticated disinformation tactics to manipulate public opinion in Taiwan. This includes amplifying and spreading false narratives through various media outlets, exploiting weaknesses in free speech and press freedom. Taiwan recognizes the growing threat of disinformation and its potential impact on national security and international credibility.
China's Propaganda Tactics: Discrediting the West
China's propaganda tactics involve not promoting Beijing but discrediting the West and Western values. They aim to find weaknesses and fishers in Western societies to undermine them. Chinese propaganda often presents itself with a veneer of truth, targeting people who are already open to irrationality. This feeds into the idea of great power competition and portrays Ukraine as a victim of US decisions, rather than Russia's actions. The Chinese aim to control the narrative and reinforce the belief that the West is a threat.
The Fallacy of the Silicon Shield
Taiwan's concept of a 'silicon shield' as a deterrent against Chinese invasion is flawed. While Taiwan dominates high-end chip production, a chip shortage would impact the global economy, affecting both China and the Western countries. The assumption that China would avoid invading Taiwan due to the resulting pain is misguided, as China has shown a high tolerance for self-inflicted pain in the past. The notion that China would not invade Taiwan because of a blockade or other tactics is secondary, as the ultimate threat is an invasion itself.
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vincent Chao, a Taiwanese politician and former diplomat and national security strategist, about why Taiwan is moving so slowly to modernize its military and increase deterrence of an existential threat of Chinese invasion. They discuss Taiwan's messy identity politics, whether Taiwanese will fight to defend their freedoms, Chinese misinformation efforts to drive wedges in Taiwan's political system and alliances, whether Silicon Shield can protect Taiwan and why a Chinese blockade is not the major threat to the island.
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