Polling Insights: Where Voters Are and How to Reach Them – David Kanevsky
Dec 18, 2024
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David Kanevsky, from 3D Strategic Research, dives into crucial insights from the 2024 Post-Election Survey. He reveals a alarming decline in local TV news viewership, with only 35% of voters tuning in daily, while social media, especially TikTok, has surged as a primary news source. The rise of podcast listenership, now at 32%, showcases a shift in how voters consume news. Kanevsky emphasizes the importance of adapting campaign strategies to connect with diverse electorates and highlights the potency of personal recommendations in voter engagement.
The dramatic decline in local TV news viewership prompts campaigns to rethink their advertising strategies towards more effective platforms like social media.
Relational organizing has gained traction, illustrating the importance of personal connections in securing voter support, especially in crowded primary races.
Deep dives
Decline of Local News and Rise of Social Media
Local TV news viewership has significantly declined, with only 35% of voters watching it daily, a drop of 21 points since 2020. This trend is largely attributed to the media fragmentation shift from broadcast to cable, and from cable to the internet. As the public increasingly relies on social media as their top daily news source, campaigns may need to rethink their advertising strategies, as fewer voters are engaging with local news. For example, campaigns like Dave McCormick's Senate run have started deprioritizing local news ads based on the observation that low-propensity voters do not watch local TV.
Rise of TikTok and Podcast Popularity
TikTok has experienced remarkable growth in daily usage among voters, leapfrogging to 18% in 2024 from just 7% in 2020, particularly among younger demographics. Contrarily, podcasts have surged, with a 32% weekly listener rate, equating their reach to that of cable news channels. While there’s an assumption that TikTok audiences lean Democratic, younger Republicans are increasingly engaging with the platform. This shifting media landscape indicates that Republicans must adapt their strategies to connect with voters on platforms like TikTok to be relevant in future elections.
Importance of Relational Organizing
Relational organizing has shown a seven-point increase, with 30% of voters indicating that a friend or family member encouraged them to support a candidate. This form of organizing is particularly advantageous in crowded primary races where candidates share similar ideologies and can benefit from personal recommendations. Additionally, it offers a solution for reaching voters in rural areas, where traditional campaigning methods like door knocking are less efficient. As traditional communication methods evolve and voters become harder to reach, leveraging personal connections will become increasingly crucial for campaign success.
On this episode, we’re breaking down some key findings from the Center for Campaign Innovation’s 2024 Post-Election Survey. We’re joined by David Kanevsky of 3D Strategic Research who has been conducting this poll since 2020 to share additional insights from this research and helping us understand what they mean for campaigners.