LessWrong (Curated & Popular) [HUMAN VOICE] "AI Timelines" by habryka, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ajeya Cotra, Ege Erdil
Nov 17, 2023
Ajeya Cotra, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Ege Erdil, researchers in the field of AI, discuss their varying estimates for the development of transformative AI and explore their disagreements. They delve into concrete AGI milestones, discuss the challenges of LLM product development, and debate factors that influence AI timelines. They also examine the progression of AI models, the potential of AI technology, and the timeline for achieving super intelligent AGI.
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
Differing Perspectives on AI Timelines and Milestones
02:45 • 16min
Discussion on LLM product development and predictions
19:02 • 2min
Perspectives on AI Timelines
20:40 • 13min
Timeline for AI Development and AGI
33:31 • 15min
Debating AGI Timelines and Reality's Complexity
48:11 • 19min
Progression of AI Models and their Capabilities
01:07:06 • 2min
Progress and Potential of AI Technology
01:09:18 • 9min