Differing Timelines for Transformative AI

Ajayakotra, Daniel Cockatailo, and Ege Adil have spent considerable time investigating the timeline for transformative AI. Despite their research, they strongly disagree on the relevant timescales. For example, their median estimates for when 99% of currently remote jobs become automatable range from four to 40 years. Graphs illustrating their differences show probability distributions that diverge significantly. The conversation explores the reasons behind their disagreements, considering factors such as compute overhang, in-context learning, adversarial robustness, and the role of government and companies in either slowing down or accelerating AI development.